Panserraikos 0-4 Olympiakos Piraeus – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Olympiakos Piraeus (49%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Panserraikos face Olympiakos Piraeus.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Dimotiko Stadio Serron plays host to Panserraikos versus Olympiakos Piraeus in Super League 1, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off: Sunday 16 February 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Panserraikos have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: D W L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Panserraikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Panserraikos at Dimotiko Stadio Serron this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Olympiakos Piraeus (all games): 7W 3D 0L across 10 Super League 1 outings this term — 2.40 points per game. Last five: W W D W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.50. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Olympiakos Piraeus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Olympiakos Piraeus away from home this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
On a straight form reading, Olympiakos Piraeus are the stronger side — 1.50 PPG clear of the hosts (2.40 vs 0.90). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to Olympiakos Piraeus, who have claimed 3 wins from 3 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 0 draws.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Nov 2024, ended 1–2 with Olympiakos Piraeus winning.
It is worth noting that Olympiakos Piraeus have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 3 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading
Panserraikos half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Olympiakos Piraeus half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Panserraikos 51% versus Olympiakos Piraeus 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Panserraikos 51% | Olympiakos Piraeus 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Panserraikos 0.99 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Panserraikos attack 1.092 / defence 1.151 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.141 / defence 0.757. League average goals — home 1.195 / away 1.135. Olympiakos Piraeus's defence strength of 0.757 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 48 Panserraikos games / 48 Olympiakos Piraeus games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Panserraikos 25% | Draw 26% | Olympiakos Piraeus 49%. Fair-value odds: Panserraikos 4.00 | Draw 3.85 | Olympiakos Piraeus 2.04. Olympiakos Piraeus hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Olympiakos Piraeus at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Olympiakos Piraeus if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.48 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: Panserraikos 70% | Olympiakos Piraeus 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Panserraikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Dimotiko Stadio Serron • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Feb 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Panserraikos 25% | Draw 26% | Olympiakos Piraeus 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 49% | xG Panserraikos 0.99 / Olympiakos Piraeus 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Panserraikos attack 1.092 / def 1.151 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.141 / def 0.757 | league avg home 1.195 / away 1.135 • Poisson stance: Olympiakos Piraeus (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Panserraikos xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Panserraikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus kick off?
Panserraikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 16 February 2025 at Dimotiko Stadio Serron.
What was the final score in Panserraikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Panserraikos 0 - 4 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Where is Panserraikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus being played?
The match is being played at Dimotiko Stadio Serron.
What competition is Panserraikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus part of?
Panserraikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Panserraikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our statistical model gives Panserraikos a 25% chance of winning, Olympiakos Piraeus a 49% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Olympiakos Piraeus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Panserraikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Panserraikos and Olympiakos Piraeus will score (BTTS).
Will Panserraikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Panserraikos and Olympiakos Piraeus?
Record (3 meetings): Panserraikos 0W | Draws 0 | Olympiakos Piraeus 3W.
What form are Panserraikos and Olympiakos Piraeus in?
Panserraikos (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-L-D-L. Olympiakos Piraeus (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Panserraikos's attack at 1.09x the league average against Olympiakos Piraeus's defence at 0.76x — combine the two and it projects 0.99 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Olympiakos Piraeus's attack (1.14x) against Panserraikos's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.49.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (10.9%), 0-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Olympiakos Piraeus Win
25%
3.99
26%
3.83
49%
2.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
0 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Panserraikos xG
Total xG
2.48
1.49
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
3.99
25%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
2.05
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
23%
4.44
37%
2.69
Win to Nil
6%
17.69
18%
5.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 12.5 | 9.3 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 12.4 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 6.1 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Panserraikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Panserraikos and Olympiakos Piraeus expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Panserraikos and 1.49 for Olympiakos Piraeus, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Panserraikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Panserraikos's recent record stands at 15W 15D 25L from 55 games, a 1.09 PPG return, with D-W-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Panserraikos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Olympiakos Piraeus, meanwhile, have gone 34W 12D 9L across 55 games — 2.07 PPG, with W-W-D-W-D in their last five. The sample for Olympiakos Piraeus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Olympiakos Piraeus by 0.98 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Panserraikos heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Panserraikos have managed 10W 11D 7L from 28 games — 1.46 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Olympiakos Piraeus's away record stands at 16W 6D 6L across 28 trips, a 1.93 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Olympiakos Piraeus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Panserraikos are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; Olympiakos Piraeus are on 1.93 scored and 0.89 conceded.
Defensively: Olympiakos Piraeus in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Panserraikos
Blended
Olympiakos Piraeus
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Panserraikos and Olympiakos Piraeus in coming into this match?
Panserraikos have gone 15W 15D 25L in their last 55 games (1.09 PPG), while Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 34W 12D 9L in their last 55 (2.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Panserraikos at home or Olympiakos Piraeus away?
Olympiakos Piraeus's away record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Panserraikos at home: 1.46 PPG; Olympiakos Piraeus away: 1.93 PPG.
Have Panserraikos or Olympiakos Piraeus been keeping clean sheets recently?
Panserraikos have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Olympiakos Piraeus in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Olympiakos Piraeus go into this on the back of 6 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Olympiakos Piraeus won 5-0 on 13 Sep 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Panserraikos have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Olympiakos Piraeus — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Panserraikos
0
Draws
6
Olympiakos Piraeus
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Panserraikos and Olympiakos Piraeus?
From 6 meetings on record, Panserraikos have won 0, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Panserraikos and Olympiakos Piraeus last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Panserraikos 1-2 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Who has won more matches between Panserraikos and Olympiakos Piraeus?
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Panserraikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Olympiakos Piraeus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Panserraikos 61%, Olympiakos Piraeus 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Panserraikos) and 43% (Olympiakos Piraeus).
On the defensive side: Olympiakos Piraeus in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Panserraikos home games / Olympiakos Piraeus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Panserraikos play Olympiakos Piraeus?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Panserraikos's recent matches and 43% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Panserraikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Panserraikos's recent games and 43% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Panserraikos and Olympiakos Piraeus tend to score early?
Panserraikos have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Olympiakos Piraeus in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Olympiakos Piraeus run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Panserraikos.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Olympiakos Piraeus beat Panserraikos 0-4 at Dimotiko Stadio Serron, Regular Season - 23, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Panserraikos 0.99 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.49 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Panserraikos fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Olympiakos Piraeus outscored their 1.49 projection by 2.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panserraikos attack 1.09 / defence 1.15 against Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.14 / defence 0.76, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Panserraikos 25% | Draw 26% | Olympiakos Piraeus 49%, with Olympiakos Piraeus to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panserraikos 51%, Olympiakos Piraeus 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Panserraikos's trading profile (55 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (55 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Olympiakos Piraeus arrived the stronger side — 2.07 PPG against 1.09. Form held, and they took the win. Panserraikos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.32 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Olympiakos Piraeus (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.64 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.