Panserraikos 0-1 Levadiakos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Levadiakos at 37% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Panserraikos vs Levadiakos encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Dimotiko Stadio Serron plays host to Panserraikos versus Levadiakos in Super League 1, Relegation Round - 9. Kick-off: Sunday 18 May 2025 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Panserraikos have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D L W L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Panserraikos's home record at Dimotiko Stadio Serron: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Levadiakos (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Super League 1 outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: W D W W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Levadiakos's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Panserraikos, 2 for Levadiakos and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Apr 2025, ended 0–3 with Levadiakos winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Panserraikos goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Levadiakos goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Panserraikos 59% versus Levadiakos 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Panserraikos 65% | Levadiakos 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Panserraikos 1.23 xG and Levadiakos 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Panserraikos attack 1.002 / defence 1.235 | Levadiakos attack 0.924 / defence 0.968. League average goals — home 1.269 / away 1.093. Data: 52 Panserraikos games / 26 Levadiakos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Panserraikos 36% | Draw 27% | Levadiakos 37%. Fair-value odds: Panserraikos 2.78 | Draw 3.70 | Levadiakos 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Levadiakos as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Levadiakos if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.48 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Panserraikos 60% | Levadiakos 40%.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Panserraikos vs Levadiakos | Competition: Super League 1, Relegation Round - 9 | Venue: Dimotiko Stadio Serron • Kick-off: Sunday 18 May 2025, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Panserraikos 36% | Draw 27% | Levadiakos 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Panserraikos 1.23 / Levadiakos 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Panserraikos attack 1.002 / def 1.235 | Levadiakos attack 0.924 / def 0.968 | league avg home 1.269 / away 1.093 • Poisson stance: Levadiakos (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Panserraikos xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Levadiakos xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Panserraikos vs Levadiakos kick off?
Panserraikos vs Levadiakos kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 18 May 2025 at Dimotiko Stadio Serron.
What was the final score in Panserraikos vs Levadiakos?
Panserraikos 0 - 1 Levadiakos.
Where is Panserraikos vs Levadiakos being played?
The match is being played at Dimotiko Stadio Serron.
What competition is Panserraikos vs Levadiakos part of?
Panserraikos vs Levadiakos is a Relegation Round - 9 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Panserraikos vs Levadiakos?
Our statistical model gives Panserraikos a 36% chance of winning, Levadiakos a 37% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Levadiakos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Panserraikos vs Levadiakos?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Panserraikos and Levadiakos will score (BTTS).
Will Panserraikos vs Levadiakos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Panserraikos and Levadiakos?
Record (3 meetings): Panserraikos 0W | Draws 1 | Levadiakos 2W.
What form are Panserraikos and Levadiakos in?
Panserraikos (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-L-D. Levadiakos (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Panserraikos's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Levadiakos's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.23. Flip it around — Levadiakos's attack (0.92x) against Panserraikos's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from 52/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.1%), 0-1 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Levadiakos Win
36%
2.77
27%
3.68
37%
2.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Panserraikos xG
Total xG
2.48
1.25
Levadiakos xG
2.77
36%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
2.72
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
29%
3.48
29%
3.42
Win to Nil
10%
9.65
11%
9.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 10.5 | 6.5 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.9 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 7.9 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Panserraikos vs Levadiakos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Panserraikos and Levadiakos expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Panserraikos and 1.25 for Levadiakos, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Panserraikos vs Levadiakos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Panserraikos come into this having played 34 games, going 10W 7D 17L for 1.09 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-L-D.
On the other side, Levadiakos sit at 1.29 PPG from 34 outings (11W 11D 12L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.09 PPG for Panserraikos against 1.29 for Levadiakos. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Panserraikos's home form reads 6W 6D 5L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.41 PPG return.
Away from home, Levadiakos have taken 1.41 points per game from 17 outings (6W 6D 5L).
Attack vs Defence
Panserraikos are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; Levadiakos are on 1.35 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Last 34 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Panserraikos
Current Season
Levadiakos
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Panserraikos and Levadiakos in coming into this match?
Panserraikos have gone 10W 7D 17L in their last 34 games (1.09 PPG), while Levadiakos have gone 11W 11D 12L in their last 34 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Panserraikos at home or Levadiakos away?
Panserraikos's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Panserraikos at home: 1.41 PPG; Levadiakos away: 1.41 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 22 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Levadiakos go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Levadiakos won 3-0 on 5 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Panserraikos have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Levadiakos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Panserraikos
1
Draws
5
Levadiakos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Panserraikos and Levadiakos?
From 6 meetings on record, Panserraikos have won 0, Levadiakos have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Panserraikos and Levadiakos last play each other?
They last met on 22 December 2025, when Panserraikos 0-2 Levadiakos.
Who has won more matches between Panserraikos and Levadiakos?
Levadiakos have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Panserraikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Levadiakos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Panserraikos 65%, Levadiakos 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Panserraikos) and 53% (Levadiakos). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Levadiakos in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Panserraikos home games / Levadiakos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Panserraikos play Levadiakos?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Panserraikos's games and 59% of Levadiakos's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Panserraikos vs Levadiakos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Panserraikos's matches and 53% of Levadiakos's.
Do Panserraikos and Levadiakos tend to score early?
Panserraikos have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Levadiakos in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Levadiakos edge out Panserraikos 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Levadiakos beat Panserraikos 0-1 at Dimotiko Stadio Serron, Relegation Round - 9, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Panserraikos 1.23 xG and Levadiakos 1.25 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Panserraikos fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panserraikos attack 1.00 / defence 1.24 against Levadiakos attack 0.92 / defence 0.97, drawn from 52/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Panserraikos 36% | Draw 27% | Levadiakos 37%, with Levadiakos to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panserraikos 65%, Levadiakos 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Panserraikos's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Levadiakos's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Panserraikos 1.09 PPG, Levadiakos 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Levadiakos win broke the near-deadlock. Panserraikos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward. Levadiakos (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.