Panserraikos 1-1 Larisa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Panserraikos take on Larisa.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Panserraikos and Larisa meet at Dimotiko Stadio Serron in Super League 1, Relegation Group - 6. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 2 May 2026 at 15:30 UTC.
Form
Panserraikos (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Super League 1 fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
In front of their own supporters this season, Panserraikos have posted 2W 2D 6L at Dimotiko Stadio Serron — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.80 lags behind their overall 1.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Dimotiko Stadio Serron this season.
Larisa's overall Super League 1 record this term: 0W 4D 6L from 10 games (0.40 PPG). Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Larisa have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Panserraikos. A 1.40 PPG lead over Larisa (1.80 vs 0.40) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Panserraikos lead 1W to 2W over the last 3 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.3 per game from 3 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Apr 2026, ended 1–0 with Panserraikos winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Panserraikos — key trading statistics (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 55% of games.
Larisa — key trading statistics (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Panserraikos 39% versus Larisa 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Panserraikos 58% | Larisa 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Panserraikos 1.03 xG and Larisa 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Panserraikos attack 0.773 / defence 1.277 | Larisa attack 0.735 / defence 1.020. League average goals — home 1.305 / away 1.065. Panserraikos's attack strength of 0.773 is below the league average — the 1.03 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 52 Panserraikos games / 26 Larisa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Panserraikos 33% | Draw 35% | Larisa 32%. Fair-value odds: Panserraikos 3.03 | Draw 2.86 | Larisa 3.12. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.03 combined xG gives a 33% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: Panserraikos 30% | Larisa 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Panserraikos vs Larisa | Competition: Super League 1, Relegation Group - 6 | Venue: Dimotiko Stadio Serron • Kick-off: Saturday 2 May 2026, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Panserraikos 33% | Draw 35% | Larisa 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 43% | xG Panserraikos 1.03 / Larisa 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Panserraikos attack 0.773 / def 1.277 | Larisa attack 0.735 / def 1.020 | league avg home 1.305 / away 1.065 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Panserraikos xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Larisa xG
43%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Panserraikos vs Larisa kick off?
Panserraikos vs Larisa kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 2 May 2026 at Dimotiko Stadio Serron.
What was the final score in Panserraikos vs Larisa?
Panserraikos 1 - 1 Larisa.
Where is Panserraikos vs Larisa being played?
The match is being played at Dimotiko Stadio Serron.
What competition is Panserraikos vs Larisa part of?
Panserraikos vs Larisa is a Relegation Group - 6 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Panserraikos vs Larisa?
Our statistical model gives Panserraikos a 33% chance of winning, Larisa a 32% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Panserraikos vs Larisa?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Panserraikos and Larisa will score (BTTS).
Will Panserraikos vs Larisa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Panserraikos and Larisa?
Record (3 meetings): Panserraikos 1W | Draws 0 | Larisa 2W.
What form are Panserraikos and Larisa in?
Panserraikos (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-L-W. Larisa (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Panserraikos's attack rating (0.77) and Larisa's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.03 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Larisa's attack (0.73x) against Panserraikos's defence (1.28x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from 52/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.9%), 1-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
33%
3.00
35%
2.86
32%
3.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Panserraikos xG
Total xG
2.03
1.00
Larisa xG
3.00
33%
Home win
2.86
35%
Draw
3.15
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
36%
2.80
Win to Nil
12%
8.15
11%
8.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.2 | 13.1 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Panserraikos vs Larisa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Panserraikos and Larisa expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Panserraikos and 1.00 for Larisa, a combined total of 2.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Panserraikos vs Larisa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 31 outings, Panserraikos have picked up 0.87 PPG on a 7W 6D 18L record — W-D-W-L-W across the most recent five.
Larisa's form line: 4W 12D 15L from 31 games, 0.77 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.87 PPG for Panserraikos against 0.77 for Larisa. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Panserraikos have posted 0.80 PPG from 15 outings (3W 3D 9L).
On the road, Larisa have gone 2W 5D 8L from 15 away games — 0.73 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Panserraikos are averaging 0.71 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Larisa are on 0.87 scored and 1.58 conceded.
Last 31 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Panserraikos
Current Season
Larisa
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Panserraikos and Larisa in coming into this match?
Panserraikos have gone 7W 6D 18L in their last 31 games (0.87 PPG), while Larisa have gone 4W 12D 15L in their last 31 (0.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Panserraikos at home or Larisa away?
Panserraikos's home record (0.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Panserraikos at home: 0.80 PPG; Larisa away: 0.73 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Panserraikos have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Larisa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Panserraikos
1
Draws
2
Larisa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Panserraikos and Larisa?
From 4 meetings on record, Panserraikos have won 1, Larisa have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Panserraikos and Larisa last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Panserraikos 1-1 Larisa.
Who has won more matches between Panserraikos and Larisa?
Larisa have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Panserraikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Larisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Panserraikos 33%, Larisa 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Panserraikos) and 47% (Larisa).
On the defensive side: Panserraikos have failed to score in 67% of games; Larisa in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Panserraikos home games / Larisa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Panserraikos play Larisa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Panserraikos's recent matches and 47% of Larisa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Panserraikos vs Larisa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Panserraikos's recent games and 47% of Larisa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Panserraikos and Larisa tend to score early?
Panserraikos have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Larisa in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Panserraikos and Larisa share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Panserraikos and Larisa finished level at 1-1 at Dimotiko Stadio Serron, Relegation Group - 6, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Panserraikos 1.03 xG and Larisa 1.00 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panserraikos attack 0.77 / defence 1.28 against Larisa attack 0.73 / defence 1.02, drawn from 52/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Panserraikos 33% | Draw 35% | Larisa 32%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panserraikos 58%, Larisa 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Panserraikos's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did.
Larisa's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Panserraikos 0.87 PPG, Larisa 0.77 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Panserraikos (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.87 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.