Panserraikos 0-0 Aris Thessalonikis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Aris Thessalonikis at 42% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Panserraikos vs Aris Thessalonikis encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Dimotiko Stadio Serron plays host to Panserraikos versus Aris Thessalonikis in Super League 1, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off: Saturday 14 March 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Panserraikos have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L D W L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Panserraikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Panserraikos have posted 3W 0D 7L at Dimotiko Stadio Serron — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
Aris Thessalonikis's overall Super League 1 record this term: 2W 6D 2L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D D D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Aris Thessalonikis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Aris Thessalonikis have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for Panserraikos against 1.20 for Aris Thessalonikis. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Across the last 5 meetings, Aris Thessalonikis have the stronger historical record — 3 wins to Panserraikos's 0, with 2 draws in the mix.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 5 previous contests averaged 1.4 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 27 Sep 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
It is worth noting that Aris Thessalonikis have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 5 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading & In-Play
Panserraikos — key trading statistics (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Aris Thessalonikis — key trading statistics (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Panserraikos 50% versus Aris Thessalonikis 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Panserraikos 61% | Aris Thessalonikis 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Panserraikos 1.06 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Panserraikos attack 0.797 / defence 1.404 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.833 / defence 0.990. League average goals — home 1.347 / away 1.138. Panserraikos's attack strength of 0.797 is below the league average — the 1.06 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 50 Panserraikos games / 50 Aris Thessalonikis games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Panserraikos 29% | Draw 28% | Aris Thessalonikis 42%. Fair-value odds: Panserraikos 3.45 | Draw 3.57 | Aris Thessalonikis 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Aris Thessalonikis at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Aris Thessalonikis if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.39 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.4 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Panserraikos 40% | Aris Thessalonikis 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Panserraikos vs Aris Thessalonikis | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Dimotiko Stadio Serron • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Mar 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Panserraikos 29% | Draw 28% | Aris Thessalonikis 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Panserraikos 1.06 / Aris Thessalonikis 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Panserraikos attack 0.797 / def 1.404 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.833 / def 0.990 | league avg home 1.347 / away 1.138 • Poisson stance: Aris Thessalonikis (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Panserraikos xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Aris Thessalonikis xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Panserraikos vs Aris Thessalonikis kick off?
Panserraikos vs Aris Thessalonikis kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 14 March 2026 at Dimotiko Stadio Serron.
What was the final score in Panserraikos vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Panserraikos 0 - 0 Aris Thessalonikis.
Where is Panserraikos vs Aris Thessalonikis being played?
The match is being played at Dimotiko Stadio Serron.
What competition is Panserraikos vs Aris Thessalonikis part of?
Panserraikos vs Aris Thessalonikis is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Panserraikos vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our statistical model gives Panserraikos a 29% chance of winning, Aris Thessalonikis a 42% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Aris Thessalonikis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Panserraikos vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Panserraikos and Aris Thessalonikis will score (BTTS).
Will Panserraikos vs Aris Thessalonikis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Panserraikos and Aris Thessalonikis?
Record (5 meetings): Panserraikos 0W | Draws 2 | Aris Thessalonikis 3W.
What form are Panserraikos and Aris Thessalonikis in?
Panserraikos (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-W-L-W. Aris Thessalonikis (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Panserraikos's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Aris Thessalonikis's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.06. Flip it around — Aris Thessalonikis's attack (0.83x) against Panserraikos's defence (1.40x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.8%), 0-1 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Aris Thessalonikis Win
29%
3.41
28%
3.52
42%
2.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.1%
Away win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Panserraikos xG
Total xG
2.39
1.33
Aris Thessalonikis xG
3.41
29%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
2.37
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
26%
3.78
35%
2.90
Win to Nil
8%
12.91
15%
6.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 12.1 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.9 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 6.9 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Panserraikos vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Panserraikos and Aris Thessalonikis expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Panserraikos and 1.33 for Aris Thessalonikis, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Panserraikos vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Panserraikos's recent record stands at 14W 9D 33L from 56 games, a 0.91 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Panserraikos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Aris Thessalonikis, meanwhile, have gone 22W 19D 15L across 56 games — 1.52 PPG, with D-D-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for Aris Thessalonikis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Aris Thessalonikis by 0.61 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Panserraikos heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Panserraikos have managed 9W 6D 13L from 28 games — 1.18 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Aris Thessalonikis's away record stands at 9W 7D 12L across 28 trips, a 1.21 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Panserraikos are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.91 conceded per game recently; Aris Thessalonikis are on 1.11 scored and 1.02 conceded.
Defensively: Aris Thessalonikis in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Panserraikos
Blended
Aris Thessalonikis
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Panserraikos and Aris Thessalonikis in coming into this match?
Panserraikos have gone 14W 9D 33L in their last 56 games (0.91 PPG), while Aris Thessalonikis have gone 22W 19D 15L in their last 56 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Panserraikos at home or Aris Thessalonikis away?
Aris Thessalonikis's away record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Panserraikos at home: 1.18 PPG; Aris Thessalonikis away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Panserraikos or Aris Thessalonikis been keeping clean sheets recently?
Panserraikos have kept a clean sheet in 11% of their recent games, Aris Thessalonikis in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Panserraikos have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Aris Thessalonikis — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Panserraikos
3
Draws
3
Aris Thessalonikis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Panserraikos and Aris Thessalonikis?
From 6 meetings on record, Panserraikos have won 0, Aris Thessalonikis have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Panserraikos and Aris Thessalonikis last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Panserraikos 0-0 Aris Thessalonikis.
Who has won more matches between Panserraikos and Aris Thessalonikis?
Aris Thessalonikis have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Panserraikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Aris Thessalonikis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Panserraikos 54%, Aris Thessalonikis 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Panserraikos) and 39% (Aris Thessalonikis).
On the defensive side: Panserraikos have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Panserraikos home games / Aris Thessalonikis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Panserraikos play Aris Thessalonikis?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Panserraikos's games and 57% of Aris Thessalonikis's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Panserraikos vs Aris Thessalonikis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Panserraikos's recent games and 39% of Aris Thessalonikis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Panserraikos and Aris Thessalonikis tend to score early?
Panserraikos have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Aris Thessalonikis in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Panserraikos's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Panserraikos and Aris Thessalonikis finished level at 0-0 at Dimotiko Stadio Serron, Regular Season - 25, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Panserraikos 1.06 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 1.33 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Panserraikos fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Aris Thessalonikis landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panserraikos attack 0.80 / defence 1.40 against Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.83 / defence 0.99, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Panserraikos 29% | Draw 28% | Aris Thessalonikis 42%, with Aris Thessalonikis to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panserraikos 61%, Aris Thessalonikis 32%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Panserraikos's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Aris Thessalonikis arrived the stronger side — 1.52 PPG against 0.91. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Panserraikos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.68 average — tighter than their form line. Aris Thessalonikis (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.