Panetolikos 0-0 Panserraikos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Panetolikos at 48% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Panetolikos vs Panserraikos encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Panetolikos and Panserraikos meet at Panetolikos Stadium in Super League 1, Regular Season - 26. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 22 March 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Panetolikos's overall Super League 1 record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: W L L W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Panetolikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Panetolikos have posted 4W 0D 6L at Panetolikos Stadium — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Panserraikos have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: D W L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Panserraikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Panserraikos's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Historically, Panetolikos have had the better of this match-up — 5 wins from 7 meetings, with Panserraikos managing just 0 victories and 2 draws shared.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Dec 2025, ended 1–0 with Panetolikos winning.
The historical record gives Panetolikos a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 7 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Panetolikos — key trading statistics (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
Panserraikos — key trading statistics (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Panetolikos 33% versus Panserraikos 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Panetolikos 33% | Panserraikos 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Panetolikos 1.78 xG and Panserraikos 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Panetolikos attack 0.956 / defence 1.350 | Panserraikos attack 0.850 / defence 1.384. League average goals — home 1.342 / away 1.097. Panserraikos bring a strong defensive rating of 1.384 — this is suppressing Panetolikos's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 51 Panetolikos games / 51 Panserraikos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Panetolikos 48% | Draw 26% | Panserraikos 26%. Fair-value odds: Panetolikos 2.08 | Draw 3.85 | Panserraikos 3.85. Panetolikos hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.78 / 1.26) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Panetolikos are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Panetolikos if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.03 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates are neutral: Panetolikos 50% | Panserraikos 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Panetolikos vs Panserraikos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Panetolikos Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Mar 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Panetolikos 48% | Draw 26% | Panserraikos 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 61% | xG Panetolikos 1.78 / Panserraikos 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Panetolikos attack 0.956 / def 1.350 | Panserraikos attack 0.850 / def 1.384 | league avg home 1.342 / away 1.097 • Poisson stance: Panetolikos (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
Panetolikos xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Panserraikos xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Panetolikos vs Panserraikos kick off?
Panetolikos vs Panserraikos kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 22 March 2026 at Panetolikos Stadium.
What was the final score in Panetolikos vs Panserraikos?
Panetolikos 0 - 0 Panserraikos.
Where is Panetolikos vs Panserraikos being played?
The match is being played at Panetolikos Stadium.
What competition is Panetolikos vs Panserraikos part of?
Panetolikos vs Panserraikos is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Panetolikos vs Panserraikos?
Our statistical model gives Panetolikos a 48% chance of winning, Panserraikos a 26% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Panetolikos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Panetolikos vs Panserraikos?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Panetolikos and Panserraikos will score (BTTS).
Will Panetolikos vs Panserraikos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Panetolikos and Panserraikos?
Record (7 meetings): Panetolikos 5W | Draws 2 | Panserraikos 0W.
What form are Panetolikos and Panserraikos in?
Panetolikos (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-W-D. Panserraikos (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Panetolikos's attack at 0.96x the league average against Panserraikos's defence at 1.38x — combine the two and it projects 1.78 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Panserraikos's attack (0.85x) against Panetolikos's defence (1.35x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Panetolikos Win
48%
2.08
26%
3.83
26%
3.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
Panetolikos xG
Total xG
3.03
1.26
Panserraikos xG
2.08
48%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
3.88
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.55
Clean Sheet
28%
3.52
17%
5.91
Win to Nil
14%
7.30
4%
22.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 6.1 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 10.8 | 6.8 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.5 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.7 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Panetolikos vs Panserraikos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Panetolikos and Panserraikos expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Panetolikos and 1.26 for Panserraikos, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Panetolikos vs Panserraikos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Panetolikos's recent record stands at 20W 13D 28L from 61 games, a 1.20 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Panetolikos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Panserraikos, meanwhile, have gone 14W 11D 36L across 61 games — 0.87 PPG, with D-W-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for Panserraikos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.20 PPG for Panetolikos against 0.87 for Panserraikos. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Panetolikos have managed 11W 2D 17L from 30 games — 1.17 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Panserraikos's away record stands at 5W 3D 22L across 30 trips, a 0.60 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Panetolikos come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Panetolikos are averaging 0.87 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Panserraikos are on 0.92 scored and 1.90 conceded.
Last 61 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Panetolikos
Blended
Panserraikos
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Panetolikos and Panserraikos in coming into this match?
Panetolikos have gone 20W 13D 28L in their last 61 games (1.20 PPG), while Panserraikos have gone 14W 11D 36L in their last 61 (0.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Panetolikos at home or Panserraikos away?
Panetolikos's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Panetolikos at home: 1.17 PPG; Panserraikos away: 0.60 PPG.
Have Panetolikos or Panserraikos been keeping clean sheets recently?
Panetolikos have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Panserraikos in 11%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to January 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 17 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Panetolikos won 3-0 on 16 Mar 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Panetolikos have gone 4W 1D 1L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Panserraikos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Panetolikos
4
Draws
1
Panserraikos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Panetolikos and Panserraikos?
From 10 meetings on record, Panetolikos have won 5, Panserraikos have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Panetolikos and Panserraikos last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Panserraikos 1-1 Panetolikos.
Who has won more matches between Panetolikos and Panserraikos?
Panetolikos have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Panetolikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Panserraikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Panetolikos 33%, Panserraikos 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Panetolikos) and 67% (Panserraikos). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 13% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Panetolikos have failed to score in 43% of games; Panserraikos in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Panetolikos home games / Panserraikos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Panetolikos play Panserraikos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Panetolikos's recent matches and 47% of Panserraikos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Panetolikos vs Panserraikos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Panetolikos's matches and 67% of Panserraikos's.
Do Panetolikos and Panserraikos tend to score early?
Panetolikos have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Panserraikos in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Panetolikos's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Panetolikos Stadium, Regular Season - 26, as Panetolikos and Panserraikos drew 0-0 in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Panetolikos 1.78 xG and Panserraikos 1.26 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Panetolikos fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Panserraikos landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panetolikos attack 0.96 / defence 1.35 against Panserraikos attack 0.85 / defence 1.38, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Panetolikos 48% | Draw 26% | Panserraikos 26%, with Panetolikos to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panetolikos 33%, Panserraikos 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Panetolikos's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 48% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Panserraikos's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Panetolikos 1.20 PPG, Panserraikos 0.87 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Panetolikos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.97 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line. Panserraikos (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.