Panetolikos 3-0 Larisa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Larisa at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Panetolikos vs Larisa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Larisa make the trip to Panetolikos Stadium to face Panetolikos in Super League 1, Regular Season - 10. The match kicks off on Saturday 8 November 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Panetolikos (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Super League 1 fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L W D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Panetolikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Panetolikos Stadium, Panetolikos have gone 3W 1D 6L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Larisa have collected 0.78 PPG across 9 Super League 1 outings this season: 1W 4D 4L. Last five: D L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.67 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Larisa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Larisa's away record: 1W 2D 1L from 4 road trips in Super League 1 this season (1.25 PPG). Away from home they average 1.25 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Panetolikos, 0.78 for Larisa — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading Data
Panetolikos goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Larisa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Panetolikos 44% versus Larisa 56%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Panetolikos 44% | Larisa 22%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Panetolikos 1.38 xG and Larisa 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Panetolikos attack 1.021 / defence 1.230 | Larisa attack 0.906 / defence 0.937. League average goals — home 1.443 / away 1.268. Data: 35 Panetolikos games / 9 Larisa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Panetolikos 36% | Draw 26% | Larisa 38%. Fair-value odds: Panetolikos 2.78 | Draw 3.85 | Larisa 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Larisa are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Larisa if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.79 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Panetolikos 40% | Larisa 50%.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Panetolikos vs Larisa | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Panetolikos Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Nov 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Panetolikos 36% | Draw 26% | Larisa 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Panetolikos 1.38 / Larisa 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Panetolikos attack 1.021 / def 1.230 | Larisa attack 0.906 / def 0.937 | league avg home 1.443 / away 1.268 • Poisson stance: Larisa (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Panetolikos xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Larisa xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Panetolikos vs Larisa kick off?
Panetolikos vs Larisa kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 8 November 2025 at Panetolikos Stadium.
What was the final score in Panetolikos vs Larisa?
Panetolikos 3 - 0 Larisa.
Where is Panetolikos vs Larisa being played?
The match is being played at Panetolikos Stadium.
What competition is Panetolikos vs Larisa part of?
Panetolikos vs Larisa is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Panetolikos vs Larisa?
Our statistical model gives Panetolikos a 36% chance of winning, Larisa a 38% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Larisa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Panetolikos vs Larisa?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Panetolikos and Larisa will score (BTTS).
Will Panetolikos vs Larisa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Panetolikos and Larisa?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Panetolikos and Larisa in?
Panetolikos (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-D-L. Larisa (all comps): 1W-4D-4L in 9 | 0.78 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.67 | L5 D-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Panetolikos's attack at 1.02x the league average against Larisa's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.38 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Larisa's attack (0.91x) against Panetolikos's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.41.
These ratings are built from 35/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Larisa Win
36%
2.76
26%
3.82
38%
2.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Panetolikos xG
Total xG
2.79
1.41
Larisa xG
2.76
36%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
2.65
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
24%
4.10
25%
3.97
Win to Nil
9%
11.34
9%
10.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 8.7 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 11.9 | 8.4 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.2 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.8 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Panetolikos vs Larisa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Panetolikos and Larisa expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Panetolikos and 1.41 for Larisa, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Panetolikos vs Larisa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 9 outings, Panetolikos have picked up 0.89 PPG on a 2W 2D 5L record — L-L-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Panetolikos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Larisa's form line: 1W 4D 4L from 9 games, 0.78 PPG, last five D-L-L-W-L. The sample for Larisa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.89 PPG for Panetolikos against 0.78 for Larisa. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Panetolikos have posted 0.75 PPG from 4 outings (1W 0D 3L).
On the road, Larisa have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 away games — 1.25 PPG when travelling. That's actually stronger than their 0.78 PPG overall record — Larisa travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Larisa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Panetolikos are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; Larisa are on 1.00 scored and 1.67 conceded.
Last 9 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Panetolikos
Blended
Larisa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Panetolikos and Larisa in coming into this match?
Panetolikos have gone 2W 2D 5L in their last 9 games (0.89 PPG), while Larisa have gone 1W 4D 4L in their last 9 (0.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Panetolikos at home or Larisa away?
Larisa's away record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Panetolikos at home: 0.75 PPG; Larisa away: 1.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 12 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Panetolikos won 3-0 on 8 Nov 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Panetolikos have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Larisa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Panetolikos
1
Draws
0
Larisa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Panetolikos and Larisa?
From 4 meetings on record, Panetolikos have won 3, Larisa have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Panetolikos and Larisa last play each other?
They last met on 12 May 2026, when Panetolikos 1-1 Larisa.
Who has won more matches between Panetolikos and Larisa?
Panetolikos have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Panetolikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Larisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Panetolikos 75%, Larisa 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 75% (Panetolikos) and 25% (Larisa).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Panetolikos home games / Larisa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Panetolikos play Larisa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Panetolikos's games and 50% of Larisa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Panetolikos vs Larisa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 75% of Panetolikos's recent games and 25% of Larisa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Panetolikos and Larisa tend to score early?
Panetolikos have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Larisa in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Panetolikos run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Larisa.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Panetolikos beat Larisa 3-0 at Panetolikos Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Panetolikos 1.38 xG and Larisa 1.41 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Panetolikos beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Larisa landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panetolikos attack 1.02 / defence 1.23 against Larisa attack 0.91 / defence 0.94, drawn from 35/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Panetolikos 36% | Draw 26% | Larisa 38%, with Larisa to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Panetolikos win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panetolikos 44%, Larisa 22%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Panetolikos's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not.
Larisa's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Panetolikos 0.89 PPG, Larisa 0.78 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Panetolikos win broke the near-deadlock. Panetolikos (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Larisa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.