Panathinaikos 2-0 Olympiakos Piraeus – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Panathinaikos at 51% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Panathinaikos face Olympiakos Piraeus.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Panathinaikos and Olympiakos Piraeus meet at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis in Super League 1 (matchday 21). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 4 February 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Form
Panathinaikos (all games): 6W 1D 3L across their last 10 — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
In front of their own supporters, Panathinaikos have posted 7W 2D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Olympiakos Piraeus have collected 2.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: L L W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 6W 3D 1L in their last 10 away fixtures (2.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.90 vs 2.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading & In-Play
Panathinaikos — key trading statistics (last 56 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time.
Olympiakos Piraeus — key trading statistics (last 56 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Panathinaikos 34% versus Olympiakos Piraeus 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Panathinaikos 38% | Olympiakos Piraeus 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Panathinaikos 1.56 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Panathinaikos attack 1.338 / defence 0.665 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.032 / defence 0.736. League average goals — home 1.582 / away 1.344. Panathinaikos carry an above-average attack rating of 1.338 — their 1.56 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Olympiakos Piraeus bring a tight defence (rating 0.736, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Panathinaikos's projected output down. Panathinaikos have a tight defence (rating 0.665), which is pulling Olympiakos Piraeus's projected output down. Data: built from Panathinaikos's last 46 games and Olympiakos Piraeus's last 46.
Result probabilities: Panathinaikos 51% | Draw 28% | Olympiakos Piraeus 21%. Fair-value odds: Panathinaikos 1.96 | Draw 3.60 | Olympiakos Piraeus 4.71. Panathinaikos hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Panathinaikos at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Panathinaikos if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.48 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 55% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Panathinaikos 40% (last 10 home games) | Olympiakos Piraeus 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Panathinaikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus | Competition: Super League 1, matchday 21 | Venue: Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis • Kick-off: Sunday 4 February 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Panathinaikos 51% | Draw 28% | Olympiakos Piraeus 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Panathinaikos 1.56 / Olympiakos Piraeus 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Panathinaikos attack 1.338 / def 0.665 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.032 / def 0.736 | league avg home 1.582 / away 1.344 • Poisson stance: Panathinaikos (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Panathinaikos xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
49%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Panathinaikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus FAQs
What time does Panathinaikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus kick off?
Panathinaikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Sunday 4 February 2024 at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis.
What was the final score in Panathinaikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Panathinaikos 2 - 0 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Where is Panathinaikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis.
What competition is Panathinaikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus part of?
Panathinaikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus is a Super League 1 fixture (matchday 21) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Panathinaikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our statistical model gives Panathinaikos a 51% chance of winning, Olympiakos Piraeus a 21% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Panathinaikos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Panathinaikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Panathinaikos and Olympiakos Piraeus will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Panathinaikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Panathinaikos's attack rating (1.34) and Olympiakos Piraeus's defence rating (0.74), the model arrives at 1.56 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Olympiakos Piraeus's attack (1.03x) against Panathinaikos's defence (0.67x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from Panathinaikos's last 46 games and Olympiakos Piraeus's last 46 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.5%), 2-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Panathinaikos Win
51%
1.96
28%
3.60
21%
4.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Panathinaikos xG
Total xG
2.48
0.92
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
1.96
51%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
4.71
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
40%
2.52
21%
4.74
Win to Nil
20%
4.93
4%
22.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 7.7 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 13.0 | 12.0 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.4 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Panathinaikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Panathinaikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Panathinaikos and Olympiakos Piraeus expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Panathinaikos and 0.92 for Olympiakos Piraeus, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Panathinaikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 56 outings, Panathinaikos have picked up 2.14 PPG on a 36W 12D 8L record — W-W-D-W-L across the most recent five.
Olympiakos Piraeus's form line: 34W 14D 8L from 56 games, 2.07 PPG, last five L-L-W-W-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.14 PPG for Panathinaikos against 2.07 for Olympiakos Piraeus. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Panathinaikos have posted 2.26 PPG from their last 27 home games (18W 7D 2L).
On the road, Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 15W 8D 4L from their last 27 away games — 1.96 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Panathinaikos are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.59 conceded per game recently; Olympiakos Piraeus are on 2.04 scored and 0.73 conceded. Olympiakos Piraeus's attacking output running into Panathinaikos's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Panathinaikos have kept a clean sheet in 57% of their games; Olympiakos Piraeus in 52% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Panathinaikos
Blended
Olympiakos Piraeus
Blended
Panathinaikos (Home) vs Olympiakos Piraeus (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Panathinaikos
Blended
Olympiakos Piraeus
Blended
❓ Panathinaikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus Form FAQs
What form are Panathinaikos and Olympiakos Piraeus in coming into this match?
Panathinaikos have gone 36W 12D 8L in their last 56 games (2.14 PPG), while Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 34W 14D 8L in their last 56 (2.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Panathinaikos at home or Olympiakos Piraeus away?
Panathinaikos's home record (2.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Panathinaikos at home: 2.26 PPG; Olympiakos Piraeus away: 1.96 PPG.
Have Panathinaikos or Olympiakos Piraeus been keeping clean sheets recently?
Panathinaikos have kept a clean sheet in 57% of their recent games, Olympiakos Piraeus in 52%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to May 2024 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent was as recently as 11 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
Olympiakos Piraeus have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Panathinaikos have gone 0W 3D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Olympiakos Piraeus — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Panathinaikos
4
Draws
5
Olympiakos Piraeus
Recent Meetings
❓ Panathinaikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Panathinaikos and Olympiakos Piraeus?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Panathinaikos have won 1, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Panathinaikos and Olympiakos Piraeus last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 October 2026: Olympiakos Piraeus 1-0 Panathinaikos.
Who has won more matches between Panathinaikos and Olympiakos Piraeus?
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Panathinaikos see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Olympiakos Piraeus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Panathinaikos 30%, Olympiakos Piraeus 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Panathinaikos) and 44% (Olympiakos Piraeus).
On the defensive side: Panathinaikos keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Olympiakos Piraeus in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Panathinaikos home games / Olympiakos Piraeus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Panathinaikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Panathinaikos and Olympiakos Piraeus matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 30% of Panathinaikos's recent matches and 41% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Panathinaikos and Olympiakos Piraeus matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Panathinaikos's recent games and 44% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Panathinaikos and Olympiakos Piraeus matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 59% of Panathinaikos's recent matches and 67% of Olympiakos Piraeus's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Panathinaikos cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Olympiakos Piraeus.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Panathinaikos beat Olympiakos Piraeus 2-0 at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis, Regular Season - 21, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Panathinaikos 1.56 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 0.92 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Olympiakos Piraeus landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panathinaikos attack 1.34 / defence 0.67 against Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.03 / defence 0.74, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Panathinaikos 51% | Draw 28% | Olympiakos Piraeus 21%, with Panathinaikos to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panathinaikos 38%, Olympiakos Piraeus 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Panathinaikos's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time, and duly kept one.
Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Panathinaikos 2.14 PPG, Olympiakos Piraeus 2.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Panathinaikos win broke the near-deadlock. Olympiakos Piraeus (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.59 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.70 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.