Panathinaikos 3-1 Aris Thessalonikis – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Panathinaikos at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Panathinaikos vs Aris Thessalonikis encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Panathinaikos and Aris Thessalonikis meet at Apostolos Nikolaidis Stadium in Super League 1, Regular Season - 23. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 1 March 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Panathinaikos (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Super League 1 fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W W D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Panathinaikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Panathinaikos's home record at Apostolos Nikolaidis Stadium: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Aris Thessalonikis's overall Super League 1 record this term: 2W 6D 2L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D W D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Aris Thessalonikis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Aris Thessalonikis's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Panathinaikos. A 0.60 PPG lead over Aris Thessalonikis (1.80 vs 1.20) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Panathinaikos lead 3W to 3W over the last 9 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.8 per game from 9 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Oct 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Panathinaikos goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Aris Thessalonikis goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Panathinaikos 51% versus Aris Thessalonikis 49%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Panathinaikos 43% | Aris Thessalonikis 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Panathinaikos 1.40 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Panathinaikos attack 1.159 / defence 0.867 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.821 / defence 0.864. League average goals — home 1.395 / away 1.090. Data: 47 Panathinaikos games / 48 Aris Thessalonikis games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Panathinaikos 51% | Draw 28% | Aris Thessalonikis 21%. Fair-value odds: Panathinaikos 1.96 | Draw 3.57 | Aris Thessalonikis 4.76. Panathinaikos hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Panathinaikos as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Panathinaikos if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.17 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Panathinaikos 60% | Aris Thessalonikis 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Panathinaikos vs Aris Thessalonikis | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Apostolos Nikolaidis Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Mar 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Panathinaikos 51% | Draw 28% | Aris Thessalonikis 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 41% | xG Panathinaikos 1.40 / Aris Thessalonikis 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Panathinaikos attack 1.159 / def 0.867 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.821 / def 0.864 | league avg home 1.395 / away 1.090 • Poisson stance: Panathinaikos (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Panathinaikos xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Aris Thessalonikis xG
41%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Panathinaikos vs Aris Thessalonikis kick off?
Panathinaikos vs Aris Thessalonikis kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 1 March 2026 at Apostolos Nikolaidis Stadium.
What was the final score in Panathinaikos vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Panathinaikos 3 - 1 Aris Thessalonikis.
Where is Panathinaikos vs Aris Thessalonikis being played?
The match is being played at Apostolos Nikolaidis Stadium.
What competition is Panathinaikos vs Aris Thessalonikis part of?
Panathinaikos vs Aris Thessalonikis is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Panathinaikos vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our statistical model gives Panathinaikos a 51% chance of winning, Aris Thessalonikis a 21% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Panathinaikos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Panathinaikos vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Panathinaikos and Aris Thessalonikis will score (BTTS).
Will Panathinaikos vs Aris Thessalonikis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Panathinaikos and Aris Thessalonikis?
Record (9 meetings): Panathinaikos 3W | Draws 3 | Aris Thessalonikis 3W.
What form are Panathinaikos and Aris Thessalonikis in?
Panathinaikos (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-D-W. Aris Thessalonikis (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Panathinaikos's attack rating (1.16) and Aris Thessalonikis's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 1.40 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Aris Thessalonikis's attack (0.82x) against Panathinaikos's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 0.78.
These ratings are built from 47/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.9%), 0-0 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Panathinaikos Win
51%
1.95
28%
3.55
21%
4.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Panathinaikos xG
Total xG
2.17
0.78
Aris Thessalonikis xG
1.95
51%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
4.88
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.44
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
46%
2.17
25%
4.04
Win to Nil
24%
4.23
5%
19.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 8.8 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.9 | 12.3 | 4.8 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.1 | 8.6 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.2 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Panathinaikos vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Panathinaikos and Aris Thessalonikis expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Panathinaikos and 0.78 for Aris Thessalonikis, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Panathinaikos vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 53 outings, Panathinaikos have picked up 1.79 PPG on a 27W 14D 12L record — D-W-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Panathinaikos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Aris Thessalonikis's form line: 22W 17D 14L from 53 games, 1.57 PPG, last five D-W-D-D-D. The sample for Aris Thessalonikis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.79 PPG for Panathinaikos against 1.57 for Aris Thessalonikis. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Panathinaikos have posted 2.19 PPG from 26 outings (17W 6D 3L).
On the road, Aris Thessalonikis have gone 9W 6D 11L from 26 away games — 1.27 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Panathinaikos come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Panathinaikos are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Aris Thessalonikis are on 1.13 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Panathinaikos have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; Aris Thessalonikis in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Panathinaikos
Blended
Aris Thessalonikis
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Panathinaikos and Aris Thessalonikis in coming into this match?
Panathinaikos have gone 27W 14D 12L in their last 53 games (1.79 PPG), while Aris Thessalonikis have gone 22W 17D 14L in their last 53 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Panathinaikos at home or Aris Thessalonikis away?
Panathinaikos's home record (2.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Panathinaikos at home: 2.19 PPG; Aris Thessalonikis away: 1.27 PPG.
Have Panathinaikos or Aris Thessalonikis been keeping clean sheets recently?
Panathinaikos have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Aris Thessalonikis in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Panathinaikos have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Aris Thessalonikis — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Panathinaikos
3
Draws
3
Aris Thessalonikis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Panathinaikos and Aris Thessalonikis?
From 10 meetings on record, Panathinaikos have won 4, Aris Thessalonikis have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Panathinaikos and Aris Thessalonikis last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Panathinaikos 3-1 Aris Thessalonikis.
Who has won more matches between Panathinaikos and Aris Thessalonikis?
Panathinaikos have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Panathinaikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Aris Thessalonikis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Panathinaikos 54%, Aris Thessalonikis 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Panathinaikos) and 38% (Aris Thessalonikis).
On the defensive side: Panathinaikos keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Aris Thessalonikis in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Panathinaikos home games / Aris Thessalonikis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Panathinaikos play Aris Thessalonikis?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Panathinaikos's recent matches and 54% of Aris Thessalonikis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Panathinaikos vs Aris Thessalonikis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Panathinaikos's recent games and 38% of Aris Thessalonikis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Panathinaikos and Aris Thessalonikis tend to score early?
Panathinaikos have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Aris Thessalonikis in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Panathinaikos cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Aris Thessalonikis.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Panathinaikos beat Aris Thessalonikis 3-1 at Apostolos Nikolaidis Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Panathinaikos 1.40 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 0.78 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Panathinaikos beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panathinaikos attack 1.16 / defence 0.87 against Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.82 / defence 0.86, drawn from 47/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Panathinaikos 51% | Draw 28% | Aris Thessalonikis 21%, with Panathinaikos to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panathinaikos 43%, Aris Thessalonikis 32%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Panathinaikos's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Panathinaikos 1.79 PPG, Aris Thessalonikis 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Panathinaikos win broke the near-deadlock. Panathinaikos (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.62 average — above their attacking norm. Aris Thessalonikis (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.31 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.