Olympiakos Piraeus 1-0 Volos NFC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Olympiakos Piraeus (61%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Olympiakos Piraeus face Volos NFC.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees Volos NFC travel to Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium to take on Olympiakos Piraeus. The game is scheduled for Saturday 24 January 2026, 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Olympiakos Piraeus — All Games: 8W 2D 0L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 2.60 points per game. Last five: W W D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.30 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.30 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Olympiakos Piraeus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Olympiakos Piraeus's home record at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium: 9W 1D 0L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (2.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium.
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Volos NFC have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Volos NFC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Volos NFC have posted 4W 0D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
On current form, Olympiakos Piraeus have the edge — a 1.30 PPG advantage (2.60 vs 1.30) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Olympiakos Piraeus have dominated this rivalry, winning 7 of 9 past contests while Volos NFC have managed just 0 wins.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 9 meetings have averaged 3.1 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2025, ended 2–0 with Olympiakos Piraeus winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Olympiakos Piraeus and goals. The home side's 7 wins from 9 meetings, combined with an average of 3.1 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Olympiakos Piraeus trading profile (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time.
Volos NFC trading profile (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Olympiakos Piraeus 44% versus Volos NFC 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Olympiakos Piraeus 46% | Volos NFC 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Olympiakos Piraeus 1.90 xG and Volos NFC 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.295 / defence 0.763 | Volos NFC attack 1.024 / defence 1.007. League average goals — home 1.454 / away 1.124. Olympiakos Piraeus carry an above-average attack strength of 1.295 — their λ of 1.90 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Olympiakos Piraeus's defence rating of 0.763 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 42 Olympiakos Piraeus games / 43 Volos NFC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 61% | Draw 22% | Volos NFC 17%. Fair-value odds: Olympiakos Piraeus 1.64 | Draw 4.55 | Volos NFC 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Olympiakos Piraeus (61%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Olympiakos Piraeus as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.77 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Olympiakos Piraeus 40% | Volos NFC 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Olympiakos Piraeus vs Volos NFC | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Jan 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 61% | Draw 22% | Volos NFC 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 50% | xG Olympiakos Piraeus 1.90 / Volos NFC 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.295 / def 0.763 | Volos NFC attack 1.024 / def 1.007 | league avg home 1.454 / away 1.124 • Poisson stance: Olympiakos Piraeus (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.90
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Volos NFC xG
50%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Olympiakos Piraeus vs Volos NFC kick off?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Volos NFC kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 24 January 2026 at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium.
What was the final score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs Volos NFC?
Olympiakos Piraeus 1 - 0 Volos NFC.
Where is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Volos NFC being played?
The match is being played at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium.
What competition is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Volos NFC part of?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Volos NFC is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Olympiakos Piraeus vs Volos NFC?
Our statistical model gives Olympiakos Piraeus a 61% chance of winning, Volos NFC a 17% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Olympiakos Piraeus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs Volos NFC?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Olympiakos Piraeus and Volos NFC will score (BTTS).
Will Olympiakos Piraeus vs Volos NFC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and Volos NFC?
Record (9 meetings): Olympiakos Piraeus 7W | Draws 2 | Volos NFC 0W.
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and Volos NFC in?
Olympiakos Piraeus (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.30 | L5 W-W-D-D-W. Volos NFC (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Olympiakos Piraeus's attacking strength (1.29x league average) is weighed against Volos NFC's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.90. The same calculation in reverse, Volos NFC's attack versus Olympiakos Piraeus's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.7%. Close behind: 2-0 (11.2%), 1-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Olympiakos Piraeus Win
61%
1.63
22%
4.51
17%
5.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.2%
Home win
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.90
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Total xG
2.77
0.88
Volos NFC xG
1.63
61%
Home win
4.51
22%
Draw
5.99
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
42%
2.41
15%
6.67
Win to Nil
25%
3.93
3%
39.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.8 | 10.4 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.2 | 9.8 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 7.1 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Olympiakos Piraeus vs Volos NFC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Olympiakos Piraeus and Volos NFC expected to score?
The model projects 1.90 expected goals for Olympiakos Piraeus and 0.88 for Volos NFC, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Olympiakos Piraeus vs Volos NFC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 48 outings, Olympiakos Piraeus have picked up 2.38 PPG on a 35W 9D 4L record — W-W-D-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Olympiakos Piraeus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Volos NFC's form line: 18W 7D 23L from 48 games, 1.27 PPG, last five D-L-W-L-L. The sample for Volos NFC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Olympiakos Piraeus are the form team by 1.11 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Volos NFC.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Olympiakos Piraeus have posted 2.58 PPG from 24 outings (19W 5D 0L).
On the road, Volos NFC have gone 9W 2D 13L from 24 away games — 1.21 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Olympiakos Piraeus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Olympiakos Piraeus are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.62 conceded per game recently; Volos NFC are on 1.08 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Defensively: Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 54% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Olympiakos Piraeus
Blended
Volos NFC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and Volos NFC in coming into this match?
Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 35W 9D 4L in their last 48 games (2.38 PPG), while Volos NFC have gone 18W 7D 23L in their last 48 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Olympiakos Piraeus at home or Volos NFC away?
Olympiakos Piraeus's home record (2.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Olympiakos Piraeus at home: 2.58 PPG; Volos NFC away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Olympiakos Piraeus or Volos NFC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 54% of their recent games, Volos NFC in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Olympiakos Piraeus and Volos NFC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Olympiakos Piraeus have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Apr 2023, when Olympiakos Piraeus won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Olympiakos Piraeus's record when hosting Volos NFC specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Olympiakos Piraeus
2
Draws
0
Volos NFC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and Volos NFC?
From 10 meetings on record, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 8, Volos NFC have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Olympiakos Piraeus and Volos NFC last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Olympiakos Piraeus 1-0 Volos NFC.
Who has won more matches between Olympiakos Piraeus and Volos NFC?
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Olympiakos Piraeus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Volos NFC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Olympiakos Piraeus 54%, Volos NFC 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Olympiakos Piraeus) and 58% (Volos NFC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Olympiakos Piraeus keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Volos NFC in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Olympiakos Piraeus home games / Volos NFC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Olympiakos Piraeus play Volos NFC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Olympiakos Piraeus's recent matches and 46% of Volos NFC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Volos NFC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Olympiakos Piraeus's matches and 58% of Volos NFC's.
Do Olympiakos Piraeus and Volos NFC tend to score early?
Olympiakos Piraeus have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Volos NFC in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Olympiakos Piraeus edge out Volos NFC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Olympiakos Piraeus beat Volos NFC 1-0 at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Olympiakos Piraeus 1.90 xG and Volos NFC 0.88 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Olympiakos Piraeus fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Volos NFC landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.29 / defence 0.76 against Volos NFC attack 1.02 / defence 1.01, drawn from 42/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Olympiakos Piraeus 61% | Draw 22% | Volos NFC 17%, with Olympiakos Piraeus to win its most likely call at 61%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Olympiakos Piraeus 46%, Volos NFC 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and duly kept one.
Volos NFC's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Olympiakos Piraeus arrived the stronger side — 2.38 PPG against 1.27. Form held, and they took the win. Olympiakos Piraeus (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.21 scoring average — below par going forward. Volos NFC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.