Olympiakos Piraeus 3-0 Volos NFC – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours Olympiakos Piraeus (75%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Olympiakos Piraeus face Volos NFC.

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Analysis & Preview

Volos NFC travel to Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki to take on Olympiakos Piraeus in Super League 1 (matchday 26). The game is scheduled for Sunday 3 March 2024 at 17:30 UK time.

Form Guide

Olympiakos Piraeus — last 10 games: 7W 0D 3L, averaging 2.10 points per game. Last five: L W W W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Olympiakos Piraeus's home record over their last 10 home games: 7W 1D 2L (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Across their last 10 games, Volos NFC have recorded 1W 2D 7L — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling, Volos NFC have posted 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.

On current form, Olympiakos Piraeus have the edge — a 1.60 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 0.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

H2H Record

The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of Olympiakos Piraeus: 3 wins from 4 H2H matches against 0 for Volos NFC, with 1 draw.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 4.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 3 Dec 2023, ended Olympiakos Piraeus 2–2 Volos NFC — a draw.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Olympiakos Piraeus and goals — 3 wins from 4 H2H matches and an average of 4.0 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.

In-Play Data

Olympiakos Piraeus trading profile (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 42%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.

Volos NFC trading profile (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Olympiakos Piraeus 46% versus Volos NFC 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Olympiakos Piraeus 56% | Volos NFC 57%). Note also that Volos NFC surrender HT leads in 38% of cases while Olympiakos Piraeus recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 42% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Olympiakos Piraeus 2.52 xG and Volos NFC 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.357 / defence 0.858 | Volos NFC attack 0.643 / defence 1.158. League average goals — home 1.601 / away 1.347. Olympiakos Piraeus carry an above-average attack rating of 1.357 — their 2.52 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Volos NFC's attack rating of 0.643 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.74. Data: built from Olympiakos Piraeus's last 51 games and Volos NFC's last 51.

Result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 75% | Draw 18% | Volos NFC 8%. Fair-value odds: Olympiakos Piraeus 1.34 | Draw 5.66 | Volos NFC 13.11. The model has a clear lean to Olympiakos Piraeus (75%) — a 57pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 3.26. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.26 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Olympiakos Piraeus as the most likely outcome at 75% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.26 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Olympiakos Piraeus's last 10 home games and Volos NFC's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.

Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Olympiakos Piraeus 70% (last 10 home games) | Volos NFC 40% (last 10 away games).

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