Olympiakos Piraeus 0-0 Panathinaikos – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Olympiakos Piraeus at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Panathinaikos make the trip to Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki to face Olympiakos Piraeus in Super League 1, Regular Season - 5. The match kicks off on Sunday 3 October 2021 at 18:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Olympiakos Piraeus have collected 2.50 PPG across 4 Super League 1 outings this season: 3W 1D 0L. Last five: D W W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 4 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Olympiakos Piraeus have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Panathinaikos's overall Super League 1 record this term: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W L L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.25 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 25% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Panathinaikos have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form ledger tips toward Olympiakos Piraeus. A 1.00 PPG lead over Panathinaikos (2.50 vs 1.50) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading Data
Olympiakos Piraeus goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; they lead at the break 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Panathinaikos goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Olympiakos Piraeus 50% versus Panathinaikos 25%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Olympiakos Piraeus 50% | Panathinaikos 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Olympiakos Piraeus 1.32 xG and Panathinaikos 0.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.148 / defence 1.088 | Panathinaikos attack 0.637 / defence 1.182. League average goals — home 0.972 / away 1.004. Data: 4 Olympiakos Piraeus games / 4 Panathinaikos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 48% | Draw 36% | Panathinaikos 16%. Fair-value odds: Olympiakos Piraeus 2.08 | Draw 2.78 | Panathinaikos 6.25. Olympiakos Piraeus hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (36%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.01. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.01 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Olympiakos Piraeus are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 36% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Olympiakos Piraeus if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.01 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates corroborate: Olympiakos Piraeus 50% | Panathinaikos 25% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Oct 2021, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 48% | Draw 36% | Panathinaikos 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 40% | xG Olympiakos Piraeus 1.32 / Panathinaikos 0.70 • Poisson strength factors: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.148 / def 1.088 | Panathinaikos attack 0.637 / def 1.182 | league avg home 0.972 / away 1.004 • Poisson stance: Olympiakos Piraeus (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Expected Goals
0.70
Panathinaikos xG
40%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos kick off?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos kicked off at 18:30 on Sunday 3 October 2021 at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki.
What was the final score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos?
Olympiakos Piraeus 0 - 0 Panathinaikos.
Where is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki.
What competition is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos part of?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos?
Our statistical model gives Olympiakos Piraeus a 48% chance of winning, Panathinaikos a 16% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Olympiakos Piraeus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Olympiakos Piraeus and Panathinaikos will score (BTTS).
Will Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and Panathinaikos?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and Panathinaikos in?
Olympiakos Piraeus (all comps): 3W-1D-0L in 4 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-W-W-W. Panathinaikos (all comps): 2W-0D-2L in 4 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.25 / GA 0.75 | L5 W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Olympiakos Piraeus's attacking strength (1.15x league average) is weighed against Panathinaikos's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.32. Flip it around — Panathinaikos's attack (0.64x) against Olympiakos Piraeus's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 0.70.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 16.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.9%), 1-1 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Olympiakos Piraeus Win
48%
2.09
36%
2.78
16%
6.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.3%
Draw
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Total xG
2.01
0.70
Panathinaikos xG
2.09
48%
Home win
2.78
36%
Draw
6.24
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.48
60%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
50%
2.01
27%
3.74
Win to Nil
24%
4.18
4%
23.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.3 | 9.3 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.6 | 12.2 | 4.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 8.1 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.1 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.0%.
How many goals are Olympiakos Piraeus and Panathinaikos expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Olympiakos Piraeus and 0.70 for Panathinaikos, a combined total of 2.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Olympiakos Piraeus come into this having played 4 games, going 3W 1D 0L for 2.50 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Olympiakos Piraeus, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Panathinaikos sit at 1.50 PPG from 4 outings (2W 0D 2L), a run that reads W-L-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Panathinaikos, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Olympiakos Piraeus carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Panathinaikos — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Olympiakos Piraeus are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game recently; Panathinaikos are on 2.25 scored and 0.75 conceded. Olympiakos Piraeus's scoring rate against Panathinaikos's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Panathinaikos in 25%.
Defensively: Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Olympiakos Piraeus
Early Season
Panathinaikos
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and Panathinaikos in coming into this match?
Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 3W 1D 0L in their last 4 games (2.50 PPG), while Panathinaikos have gone 2W 0D 2L in their last 4 (1.50 PPG).
Have Olympiakos Piraeus or Panathinaikos been keeping clean sheets recently?
Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Panathinaikos in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since March 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. The two were last together as recently as 13 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Olympiakos Piraeus have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Panathinaikos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Olympiakos Piraeus
4
Draws
2
Panathinaikos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and Panathinaikos?
From 10 meetings on record, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 4, Panathinaikos have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Olympiakos Piraeus and Panathinaikos last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2026, when Olympiakos Piraeus 1-0 Panathinaikos.
Who has won more matches between Olympiakos Piraeus and Panathinaikos?
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Olympiakos Piraeus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time.
Panathinaikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Olympiakos Piraeus 50%, Panathinaikos 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Olympiakos Piraeus) and 50% (Panathinaikos).
On the defensive side: Olympiakos Piraeus keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Panathinaikos in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Olympiakos Piraeus home games / Panathinaikos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Olympiakos Piraeus play Panathinaikos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Olympiakos Piraeus's recent matches and 25% of Panathinaikos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Olympiakos Piraeus's recent games and 50% of Panathinaikos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Olympiakos Piraeus and Panathinaikos tend to score early?
Olympiakos Piraeus have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Panathinaikos in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Olympiakos Piraeus's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki, Regular Season - 5, as Olympiakos Piraeus and Panathinaikos drew 0-0 in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Olympiakos Piraeus 1.32 xG and Panathinaikos 0.70 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Olympiakos Piraeus fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.15 / defence 1.09 against Panathinaikos attack 0.64 / defence 1.18, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Olympiakos Piraeus 48% | Draw 36% | Panathinaikos 16%, with Olympiakos Piraeus to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Olympiakos Piraeus 50%, Panathinaikos 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Panathinaikos's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Olympiakos Piraeus arrived the stronger side — 2.50 PPG against 1.50. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Olympiakos Piraeus managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Panathinaikos managed 0 against a 2.25 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.