Olympiakos Piraeus 1-0 Ionikos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Olympiakos Piraeus at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Olympiakos Piraeus vs Ionikos encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Olympiakos Piraeus and Ionikos meet at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki in Super League 1, Regular Season - 9. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 7 November 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
Olympiakos Piraeus's overall Super League 1 record this term: 6W 2D 0L from 8 games (2.50 PPG). Last five: W D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.75 goals per game, with 0.62 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.62 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets in 8 games (38%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 62% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Olympiakos Piraeus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Olympiakos Piraeus's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 0L across 4 games at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 4 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 2.00 lags behind their overall 2.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki this season.
Ionikos (all games): 2W 3D 3L across 8 Super League 1 outings this term — 1.12 points per game. Last five: D L L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.75 per game is modest, conceding 1.25 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets from 8 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Ionikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ionikos's away record: 1W 1D 2L from 4 road trips in Super League 1 this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.75 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game. 2 away clean sheets from 4 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The points-per-game gap of 1.38 in Olympiakos Piraeus's favour (2.50 vs 1.12) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading
Olympiakos Piraeus half-time and goal-timing data (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Ionikos half-time and goal-timing data (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Olympiakos Piraeus 62% versus Ionikos 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Olympiakos Piraeus 62% | Ionikos 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Olympiakos Piraeus 1.38 xG and Ionikos 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 0.990 / defence 0.978 | Ionikos attack 0.775 / defence 1.275. League average goals — home 1.095 / away 1.133. Ionikos bring a strong defensive rating of 1.275 — this is suppressing Olympiakos Piraeus's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 8 Olympiakos Piraeus games / 8 Ionikos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 46% | Draw 33% | Ionikos 20%. Fair-value odds: Olympiakos Piraeus 2.17 | Draw 3.03 | Ionikos 5.00. Olympiakos Piraeus hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Olympiakos Piraeus at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Olympiakos Piraeus if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.24 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Olympiakos Piraeus 50% | Ionikos 25% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Olympiakos Piraeus vs Ionikos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Nov 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 46% | Draw 33% | Ionikos 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 46% | xG Olympiakos Piraeus 1.38 / Ionikos 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 0.990 / def 0.978 | Ionikos attack 0.775 / def 1.275 | league avg home 1.095 / away 1.133 • Poisson stance: Olympiakos Piraeus (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Ionikos xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Olympiakos Piraeus vs Ionikos kick off?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Ionikos kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 7 November 2021 at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki.
What was the final score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs Ionikos?
Olympiakos Piraeus 1 - 0 Ionikos.
Where is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Ionikos being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki.
What competition is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Ionikos part of?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Ionikos is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Olympiakos Piraeus vs Ionikos?
Our statistical model gives Olympiakos Piraeus a 46% chance of winning, Ionikos a 20% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Olympiakos Piraeus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs Ionikos?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Olympiakos Piraeus and Ionikos will score (BTTS).
Will Olympiakos Piraeus vs Ionikos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and Ionikos?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and Ionikos in?
Olympiakos Piraeus (all comps): 6W-2D-0L in 8 | 2.50 PPG | GF 1.75 / GA 0.62 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Ionikos (all comps): 2W-3D-3L in 8 | 1.12 PPG | GF 0.75 / GA 1.25 | L5 D-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Olympiakos Piraeus's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Ionikos's defensive record (1.27x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.38. Flip it around — Ionikos's attack (0.78x) against Olympiakos Piraeus's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.1%), 0-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Olympiakos Piraeus Win
46%
2.16
33%
3.01
20%
4.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Total xG
2.24
0.86
Ionikos xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.01
33%
Draw
4.88
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
42%
2.36
25%
3.98
Win to Nil
20%
5.10
5%
19.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 9.1 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.7 | 12.6 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 8.7 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Olympiakos Piraeus vs Ionikos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Olympiakos Piraeus and Ionikos expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Olympiakos Piraeus and 0.86 for Ionikos, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Olympiakos Piraeus vs Ionikos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 8 outings, Olympiakos Piraeus have picked up 2.50 PPG on a 6W 2D 0L record — W-D-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Olympiakos Piraeus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ionikos's form line: 2W 3D 3L from 8 games, 1.12 PPG, last five D-L-L-W-D. The sample for Ionikos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Olympiakos Piraeus are the form team by 1.38 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Ionikos.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Olympiakos Piraeus have posted 2.00 PPG from 4 outings (2W 2D 0L). That actually lags their 2.50 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
On the road, Ionikos have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Olympiakos Piraeus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Olympiakos Piraeus are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 0.62 conceded per game recently; Ionikos are on 0.75 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Olympiakos Piraeus have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Defensively: Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; Ionikos in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Olympiakos Piraeus
Blended
Ionikos
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and Ionikos in coming into this match?
Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 6W 2D 0L in their last 8 games (2.50 PPG), while Ionikos have gone 2W 3D 3L in their last 8 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Olympiakos Piraeus at home or Ionikos away?
Olympiakos Piraeus's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Olympiakos Piraeus at home: 2.00 PPG; Ionikos away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Olympiakos Piraeus or Ionikos been keeping clean sheets recently?
Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Ionikos in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 January 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Olympiakos Piraeus have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Olympiakos Piraeus won 0-3 on 6 Feb 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Ionikos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Olympiakos Piraeus
0
Draws
0
Ionikos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and Ionikos?
From 4 meetings on record, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 4, Ionikos have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Olympiakos Piraeus and Ionikos last play each other?
They last met on 3 January 2023, when Ionikos 0-2 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Who has won more matches between Olympiakos Piraeus and Ionikos?
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Olympiakos Piraeus see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Ionikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Olympiakos Piraeus 50%, Ionikos 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Olympiakos Piraeus) and 50% (Ionikos).
On the defensive side: Olympiakos Piraeus keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Ionikos in 50%; Olympiakos Piraeus have failed to score in 50% of games; Ionikos in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Olympiakos Piraeus home games / Ionikos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Olympiakos Piraeus play Ionikos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Olympiakos Piraeus's recent matches and 25% of Ionikos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Ionikos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Olympiakos Piraeus's recent games and 50% of Ionikos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Olympiakos Piraeus and Ionikos tend to score early?
Olympiakos Piraeus have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Ionikos in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Olympiakos Piraeus edge out Ionikos 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Olympiakos Piraeus beat Ionikos 1-0 at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki, Regular Season - 9, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Olympiakos Piraeus 1.38 xG and Ionikos 0.86 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Ionikos landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Olympiakos Piraeus attack 0.99 / defence 0.98 against Ionikos attack 0.78 / defence 1.27, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Olympiakos Piraeus 46% | Draw 33% | Ionikos 20%, with Olympiakos Piraeus to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Olympiakos Piraeus 62%, Ionikos 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Ionikos's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Olympiakos Piraeus arrived the stronger side — 2.50 PPG against 1.12. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.