Olympiakos Piraeus 4-1 Aris Thessalonikis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Olympiakos Piraeus at 71% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Olympiakos Piraeus vs Aris Thessalonikis encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Olympiakos Piraeus and Aris Thessalonikis meet at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki in Super League 1, Regular Season - 6. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 27 September 2023 at 18:30 UTC.
Form
Olympiakos Piraeus (all games): 7W 2D 1L across 10 Super League 1 fixtures this term — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.30 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Olympiakos Piraeus have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Olympiakos Piraeus at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki this season: 8W 1D 1L from 10 home games — 2.50 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 3.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Aris Thessalonikis's overall Super League 1 record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L L W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Aris Thessalonikis have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Aris Thessalonikis away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Olympiakos Piraeus. A 0.90 PPG lead over Aris Thessalonikis (2.30 vs 1.40) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Olympiakos Piraeus lead 0W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.5 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 26 Apr 2023, ended 1–2 with Aris Thessalonikis winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Olympiakos Piraeus — key trading statistics (41 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time.
Aris Thessalonikis — key trading statistics (41 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Olympiakos Piraeus 39% versus Aris Thessalonikis 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Olympiakos Piraeus 51% | Aris Thessalonikis 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Olympiakos Piraeus 2.12 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 0.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.490 / defence 0.605 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.855 / defence 0.899. League average goals — home 1.585 / away 1.137. Olympiakos Piraeus carry an above-average attack strength of 1.490 — their λ of 2.12 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Olympiakos Piraeus's defence rating of 0.605 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 31 Olympiakos Piraeus games / 31 Aris Thessalonikis games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 71% | Draw 23% | Aris Thessalonikis 6%. Fair-value odds: Olympiakos Piraeus 1.41 | Draw 4.35 | Aris Thessalonikis 16.67. The model has a clear lean to Olympiakos Piraeus (71%) — a 65pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Olympiakos Piraeus are the pick at 71% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.71 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates corroborate: Olympiakos Piraeus 30% | Aris Thessalonikis 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Olympiakos Piraeus vs Aris Thessalonikis | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki • Kick-off: Wednesday 27 Sep 2023, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 71% | Draw 23% | Aris Thessalonikis 6% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 42% | xG Olympiakos Piraeus 2.12 / Aris Thessalonikis 0.59 • Poisson strength factors: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.490 / def 0.605 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.855 / def 0.899 | league avg home 1.585 / away 1.137 • Poisson stance: Olympiakos Piraeus (71%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.12
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Expected Goals
0.59
Aris Thessalonikis xG
42%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Olympiakos Piraeus vs Aris Thessalonikis kick off?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Aris Thessalonikis kicked off at 18:30 on Wednesday 27 September 2023 at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki.
What was the final score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Olympiakos Piraeus 4 - 1 Aris Thessalonikis.
Where is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Aris Thessalonikis being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki.
What competition is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Aris Thessalonikis part of?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Aris Thessalonikis is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Olympiakos Piraeus vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our statistical model gives Olympiakos Piraeus a 71% chance of winning, Aris Thessalonikis a 6% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Olympiakos Piraeus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Olympiakos Piraeus and Aris Thessalonikis will score (BTTS).
Will Olympiakos Piraeus vs Aris Thessalonikis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and Aris Thessalonikis?
Record (2 meetings): Olympiakos Piraeus 0W | Draws 1 | Aris Thessalonikis 1W.
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and Aris Thessalonikis in?
Olympiakos Piraeus (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.30 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. Aris Thessalonikis (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Olympiakos Piraeus's attack at 1.49x the league average against Aris Thessalonikis's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 2.12 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Aris Thessalonikis's attack (0.85x) against Olympiakos Piraeus's defence (0.60x) — and the away total comes out at 0.59.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.0%), 3-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Olympiakos Piraeus Win
71%
1.42
23%
4.37
6%
15.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
3 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.12
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Total xG
2.71
0.59
Aris Thessalonikis xG
1.42
71%
Home win
4.37
23%
Draw
15.46
6%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
56%
1.80
12%
8.37
Win to Nil
39%
2.55
1%
129.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 14.1 | 8.3 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 15.0 | 8.8 | 2.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 10.6 | 6.2 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 5.6 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Olympiakos Piraeus vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Olympiakos Piraeus and Aris Thessalonikis expected to score?
The model projects 2.12 expected goals for Olympiakos Piraeus and 0.59 for Aris Thessalonikis, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Olympiakos Piraeus vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 71%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Olympiakos Piraeus's recent record stands at 25W 11D 5L from 41 games, a 2.10 PPG return, with W-W-W-D-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Olympiakos Piraeus, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Aris Thessalonikis, meanwhile, have gone 17W 7D 17L across 41 games — 1.41 PPG, with L-L-W-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Aris Thessalonikis, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Olympiakos Piraeus by 0.69 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Aris Thessalonikis heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Olympiakos Piraeus have managed 15W 4D 2L from 21 games — 2.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Aris Thessalonikis's away record stands at 4W 5D 12L across 21 trips, a 0.81 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.41 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Aris Thessalonikis's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Olympiakos Piraeus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Olympiakos Piraeus are averaging 2.07 goals scored and 0.61 conceded per game recently; Aris Thessalonikis are on 1.54 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Defensively: Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 59% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Olympiakos Piraeus
Early Season
Aris Thessalonikis
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and Aris Thessalonikis in coming into this match?
Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 25W 11D 5L in their last 41 games (2.10 PPG), while Aris Thessalonikis have gone 17W 7D 17L in their last 41 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Olympiakos Piraeus at home or Aris Thessalonikis away?
Olympiakos Piraeus's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Olympiakos Piraeus at home: 2.33 PPG; Aris Thessalonikis away: 0.81 PPG.
Have Olympiakos Piraeus or Aris Thessalonikis been keeping clean sheets recently?
Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 59% of their recent games, Aris Thessalonikis in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 14 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Olympiakos Piraeus won 4-1 on 27 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Aris Thessalonikis — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Olympiakos Piraeus
3
Draws
2
Aris Thessalonikis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and Aris Thessalonikis?
From 10 meetings on record, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 5, Aris Thessalonikis have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Olympiakos Piraeus and Aris Thessalonikis last play each other?
They last met on 14 December 2025, when Aris Thessalonikis 0-0 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Who has won more matches between Olympiakos Piraeus and Aris Thessalonikis?
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Olympiakos Piraeus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Aris Thessalonikis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Olympiakos Piraeus 38%, Aris Thessalonikis 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Olympiakos Piraeus) and 48% (Aris Thessalonikis).
On the defensive side: Olympiakos Piraeus keep a clean sheet in 62% of their matches; Aris Thessalonikis in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Olympiakos Piraeus home games / Aris Thessalonikis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Olympiakos Piraeus play Aris Thessalonikis?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Olympiakos Piraeus's recent matches and 38% of Aris Thessalonikis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Aris Thessalonikis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Olympiakos Piraeus's recent games and 48% of Aris Thessalonikis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Olympiakos Piraeus and Aris Thessalonikis tend to score early?
Olympiakos Piraeus have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Aris Thessalonikis in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Olympiakos Piraeus run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Aris Thessalonikis.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Olympiakos Piraeus beat Aris Thessalonikis 4-1 at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki, Regular Season - 6, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Olympiakos Piraeus 2.12 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 0.59 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Olympiakos Piraeus beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.49 / defence 0.60 against Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.85 / defence 0.90, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Olympiakos Piraeus 71% | Draw 23% | Aris Thessalonikis 6%, with Olympiakos Piraeus to win its most likely call at 71%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Olympiakos Piraeus 51%, Aris Thessalonikis 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (41 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time, and conceded here.
Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (41 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Olympiakos Piraeus arrived the stronger side — 2.10 PPG against 1.41. Form held, and they took the win. Olympiakos Piraeus (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.62 average — above their attacking norm. Aris Thessalonikis (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.