Olympiakos Piraeus 4-1 Aris Thessalonikis – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Olympiakos Piraeus at 71% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Olympiakos Piraeus vs Aris Thessalonikis encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Olympiakos Piraeus and Aris Thessalonikis meet at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki in Super League 1 (matchday 6). This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 27 September 2023 at 19:30 UK time.

Form

Olympiakos Piraeus (all games): 7W 2D 1L across their last 10 — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.30 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.

Olympiakos Piraeus at home: 8W 1D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.50 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 3.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Aris Thessalonikis's record over their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Last five: L L W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Aris Thessalonikis away from home: 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form ledger tips toward Olympiakos Piraeus. A 0.90 PPG lead over Aris Thessalonikis (2.30 vs 1.40) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.

H2H History

Neither side has dominated the 2 H2H matches in our data: 0 wins for Olympiakos Piraeus, 1 for Aris Thessalonikis and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.5 per game across the 2 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 26 Apr 2023, ended Olympiakos Piraeus 1–2 Aris Thessalonikis — a Aris Thessalonikis win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading & In-Play

Olympiakos Piraeus — key trading statistics (last 41 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time.

Aris Thessalonikis — key trading statistics (last 41 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Olympiakos Piraeus 39% versus Aris Thessalonikis 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Olympiakos Piraeus 51% | Aris Thessalonikis 61%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Olympiakos Piraeus 2.12 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 0.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.490 / defence 0.605 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.855 / defence 0.899. League average goals — home 1.585 / away 1.137. Olympiakos Piraeus carry an above-average attack rating of 1.490 — their 2.12 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Olympiakos Piraeus have a tight defence (rating 0.605), which is pulling Aris Thessalonikis's projected output down. Data: built from Olympiakos Piraeus's last 31 games and Aris Thessalonikis's last 31.

Result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 71% | Draw 23% | Aris Thessalonikis 6%. Fair-value odds: Olympiakos Piraeus 1.42 | Draw 4.37 | Aris Thessalonikis 15.46. The model has a clear lean to Olympiakos Piraeus (71%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Olympiakos Piraeus are the pick at 71% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.71 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Olympiakos Piraeus's last 10 home games and Aris Thessalonikis's last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 58%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Olympiakos Piraeus 30% (last 10 home games) | Aris Thessalonikis 60% (last 10 away games).

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