Olympiakos Piraeus 0-0 AEK Athens FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Olympiakos Piraeus take on AEK Athens FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
AEK Athens FC make the trip to Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki to face Olympiakos Piraeus in Super League 1, Regular Season - 13. The match kicks off on Sunday 13 November 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
Olympiakos Piraeus's overall Super League 1 record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: L W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Olympiakos Piraeus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki, Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
AEK Athens FC have collected 2.50 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 8W 1D 1L. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for AEK Athens FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AEK Athens FC's away record: 5W 3D 2L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.80 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
AEK Athens FC arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (2.50 vs 2.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Olympiakos Piraeus have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, AEK Athens FC in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading Data
Olympiakos Piraeus goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
AEK Athens FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Olympiakos Piraeus 54% versus AEK Athens FC 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Olympiakos Piraeus 46% | AEK Athens FC 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Olympiakos Piraeus 1.06 xG and AEK Athens FC 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.197 / defence 0.828 | AEK Athens FC attack 1.299 / defence 0.741. League average goals — home 1.198 / away 1.139. AEK Athens FC's defence strength of 0.741 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. AEK Athens FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.299 — the away xG of 1.23 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 38 Olympiakos Piraeus games / 38 AEK Athens FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 28% | Draw 36% | AEK Athens FC 36%. Fair-value odds: Olympiakos Piraeus 3.57 | Draw 2.78 | AEK Athens FC 2.78. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 28% and away win at 36% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.29 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Olympiakos Piraeus 70% | AEK Athens FC 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Olympiakos Piraeus vs AEK Athens FC | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Nov 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 28% | Draw 36% | AEK Athens FC 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 50% | xG Olympiakos Piraeus 1.06 / AEK Athens FC 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.197 / def 0.828 | AEK Athens FC attack 1.299 / def 0.741 | league avg home 1.198 / away 1.139 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Expected Goals
1.23
AEK Athens FC xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Olympiakos Piraeus vs AEK Athens FC kick off?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs AEK Athens FC kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 13 November 2022 at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki.
What was the final score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs AEK Athens FC?
Olympiakos Piraeus 0 - 0 AEK Athens FC.
Where is Olympiakos Piraeus vs AEK Athens FC being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki.
What competition is Olympiakos Piraeus vs AEK Athens FC part of?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs AEK Athens FC is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Olympiakos Piraeus vs AEK Athens FC?
Our statistical model gives Olympiakos Piraeus a 28% chance of winning, AEK Athens FC a 36% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs AEK Athens FC?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Olympiakos Piraeus and AEK Athens FC will score (BTTS).
Will Olympiakos Piraeus vs AEK Athens FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and AEK Athens FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and AEK Athens FC in?
Olympiakos Piraeus (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-W-D-W. AEK Athens FC (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Olympiakos Piraeus's attack at 1.20x the league average against AEK Athens FC's defence at 0.74x — combine the two and it projects 1.06 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — AEK Athens FC's attack (1.30x) against Olympiakos Piraeus's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.9%), 0-1 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
28%
3.59
36%
2.76
36%
2.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.4%
Away win
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Total xG
2.29
1.23
AEK Athens FC xG
3.59
28%
Home win
2.76
36%
Draw
2.78
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
29%
3.41
35%
2.89
Win to Nil
8%
12.25
12%
8.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 12.4 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 13.2 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.0 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Olympiakos Piraeus vs AEK Athens FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Olympiakos Piraeus and AEK Athens FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Olympiakos Piraeus and 1.23 for AEK Athens FC, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Olympiakos Piraeus vs AEK Athens FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Olympiakos Piraeus come into this having played 48 games, going 32W 11D 5L for 2.23 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-D-W. The sample for Olympiakos Piraeus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, AEK Athens FC sit at 1.75 PPG from 48 outings (25W 9D 14L), a run that reads W-W-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for AEK Athens FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Olympiakos Piraeus carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.48 PPG clear of AEK Athens FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Olympiakos Piraeus's home form reads 17W 5D 2L across 24 games on their own ground, a 2.33 PPG return.
Away from home, AEK Athens FC have taken 1.67 points per game from 24 outings (11W 7D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Olympiakos Piraeus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Olympiakos Piraeus are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 0.71 conceded per game recently; AEK Athens FC are on 1.65 scored and 0.98 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games; AEK Athens FC in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Olympiakos Piraeus
Blended
AEK Athens FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and AEK Athens FC in coming into this match?
Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 32W 11D 5L in their last 48 games (2.23 PPG), while AEK Athens FC have gone 25W 9D 14L in their last 48 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Olympiakos Piraeus at home or AEK Athens FC away?
Olympiakos Piraeus's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Olympiakos Piraeus at home: 2.33 PPG; AEK Athens FC away: 1.67 PPG.
Have Olympiakos Piraeus or AEK Athens FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, AEK Athens FC in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to March 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Olympiakos Piraeus won 4-1 on 24 Nov 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against AEK Athens FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Olympiakos Piraeus
2
Draws
2
AEK Athens FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and AEK Athens FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 6, AEK Athens FC have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Olympiakos Piraeus and AEK Athens FC last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when AEK Athens FC 1-1 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Who has won more matches between Olympiakos Piraeus and AEK Athens FC?
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Olympiakos Piraeus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
AEK Athens FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Olympiakos Piraeus 54%, AEK Athens FC 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Olympiakos Piraeus) and 46% (AEK Athens FC).
On the defensive side: Olympiakos Piraeus keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; AEK Athens FC in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Olympiakos Piraeus home games / AEK Athens FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Olympiakos Piraeus play AEK Athens FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Olympiakos Piraeus's recent matches and 54% of AEK Athens FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Olympiakos Piraeus vs AEK Athens FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Olympiakos Piraeus's recent games and 46% of AEK Athens FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Olympiakos Piraeus and AEK Athens FC tend to score early?
Olympiakos Piraeus have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, AEK Athens FC in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Olympiakos Piraeus's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Olympiakos Piraeus and AEK Athens FC finished level at 0-0 at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki, Regular Season - 13, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Olympiakos Piraeus 1.06 xG and AEK Athens FC 1.23 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Olympiakos Piraeus fell 1.1 short of their projected output. AEK Athens FC landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.20 / defence 0.83 against AEK Athens FC attack 1.30 / defence 0.74, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Olympiakos Piraeus 28% | Draw 36% | AEK Athens FC 36%, with AEK Athens FC to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Olympiakos Piraeus 46%, AEK Athens FC 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
AEK Athens FC's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Olympiakos Piraeus arrived the stronger side — 2.23 PPG against 1.75. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Olympiakos Piraeus (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.79 scoring average — below par going forward. AEK Athens FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.58 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.