Olympiakos Piraeus 1-0 AEK Athens FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Olympiakos Piraeus (39%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Olympiakos Piraeus face AEK Athens FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
AEK Athens FC make the trip to Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki to face Olympiakos Piraeus in Super League 1, Championship Round - 3. The match kicks off on Sunday 13 April 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Olympiakos Piraeus's overall Super League 1 record this term: 7W 2D 1L from 10 games (2.30 PPG). Last five: W W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki, Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 8W 2D 0L this season (10 games, 2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
AEK Athens FC have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W L D L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
AEK Athens FC's away record: 6W 1D 3L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form favours the hosts. Olympiakos Piraeus's 2.30 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of AEK Athens FC's 1.60 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Olympiakos Piraeus lead 3W to 1W over the last 4 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Mar 2025, ended 1–0 with Olympiakos Piraeus winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Olympiakos Piraeus goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
AEK Athens FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Olympiakos Piraeus 52% versus AEK Athens FC 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Olympiakos Piraeus 58% | AEK Athens FC 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Olympiakos Piraeus 1.16 xG and AEK Athens FC 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.139 / defence 0.814 | AEK Athens FC attack 1.150 / defence 0.802. League average goals — home 1.269 / away 1.093. Data: 52 Olympiakos Piraeus games / 52 AEK Athens FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 39% | Draw 29% | AEK Athens FC 32%. Fair-value odds: Olympiakos Piraeus 2.56 | Draw 3.45 | AEK Athens FC 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Olympiakos Piraeus as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Olympiakos Piraeus if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.18 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Olympiakos Piraeus 70% | AEK Athens FC 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Olympiakos Piraeus vs AEK Athens FC | Competition: Super League 1, Championship Round - 3 | Venue: Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Apr 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 39% | Draw 29% | AEK Athens FC 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Olympiakos Piraeus 1.16 / AEK Athens FC 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.139 / def 0.814 | AEK Athens FC attack 1.150 / def 0.802 | league avg home 1.269 / away 1.093 • Poisson stance: Olympiakos Piraeus (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Expected Goals
1.02
AEK Athens FC xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Olympiakos Piraeus vs AEK Athens FC kick off?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs AEK Athens FC kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 13 April 2025 at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki.
What was the final score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs AEK Athens FC?
Olympiakos Piraeus 1 - 0 AEK Athens FC.
Where is Olympiakos Piraeus vs AEK Athens FC being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki.
What competition is Olympiakos Piraeus vs AEK Athens FC part of?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs AEK Athens FC is a Championship Round - 3 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Olympiakos Piraeus vs AEK Athens FC?
Our statistical model gives Olympiakos Piraeus a 39% chance of winning, AEK Athens FC a 32% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Olympiakos Piraeus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs AEK Athens FC?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Olympiakos Piraeus and AEK Athens FC will score (BTTS).
Will Olympiakos Piraeus vs AEK Athens FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and AEK Athens FC?
Record (4 meetings): Olympiakos Piraeus 3W | Draws 0 | AEK Athens FC 1W.
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and AEK Athens FC in?
Olympiakos Piraeus (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. AEK Athens FC (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Olympiakos Piraeus's attack at 1.14x the league average against AEK Athens FC's defence at 0.80x — combine the two and it projects 1.16 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — AEK Athens FC's attack (1.15x) against Olympiakos Piraeus's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.0%), 1-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Olympiakos Piraeus Win
39%
2.58
29%
3.43
32%
3.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Total xG
2.18
1.02
AEK Athens FC xG
2.58
39%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
3.12
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
31%
3.19
Win to Nil
14%
7.17
10%
9.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 11.5 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 13.4 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 7.8 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Olympiakos Piraeus vs AEK Athens FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Olympiakos Piraeus and AEK Athens FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Olympiakos Piraeus and 1.02 for AEK Athens FC, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Olympiakos Piraeus vs AEK Athens FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Olympiakos Piraeus come into this having played 64 games, going 42W 12D 10L for 2.16 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-L.
On the other side, AEK Athens FC sit at 2.05 PPG from 64 outings (39W 14D 11L), a run that reads W-L-D-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.16 PPG for Olympiakos Piraeus against 2.05 for AEK Athens FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Olympiakos Piraeus's home form reads 24W 5D 3L across 32 games on their own ground, a 2.41 PPG return.
Away from home, AEK Athens FC have taken 1.72 points per game from 32 outings (16W 7D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Olympiakos Piraeus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Olympiakos Piraeus are averaging 2.02 goals scored and 0.84 conceded per game recently; AEK Athens FC are on 1.98 scored and 0.89 conceded. Olympiakos Piraeus's scoring rate against AEK Athens FC's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games; AEK Athens FC in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 64 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Olympiakos Piraeus
Current Season
AEK Athens FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and AEK Athens FC in coming into this match?
Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 42W 12D 10L in their last 64 games (2.16 PPG), while AEK Athens FC have gone 39W 14D 11L in their last 64 (2.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Olympiakos Piraeus at home or AEK Athens FC away?
Olympiakos Piraeus's home record (2.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Olympiakos Piraeus at home: 2.41 PPG; AEK Athens FC away: 1.72 PPG.
Have Olympiakos Piraeus or AEK Athens FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, AEK Athens FC in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to March 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 17 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Olympiakos Piraeus won 4-1 on 24 Nov 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against AEK Athens FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Olympiakos Piraeus
2
Draws
2
AEK Athens FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and AEK Athens FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 6, AEK Athens FC have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Olympiakos Piraeus and AEK Athens FC last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when AEK Athens FC 1-1 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Who has won more matches between Olympiakos Piraeus and AEK Athens FC?
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Olympiakos Piraeus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 61% of the time.
AEK Athens FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Olympiakos Piraeus 59%, AEK Athens FC 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 72% for Olympiakos Piraeus and 62% for AEK Athens FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 34% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Olympiakos Piraeus keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; AEK Athens FC in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Olympiakos Piraeus home games / AEK Athens FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Olympiakos Piraeus play AEK Athens FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Olympiakos Piraeus's games and 53% of AEK Athens FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Olympiakos Piraeus vs AEK Athens FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of Olympiakos Piraeus's matches and 62% of AEK Athens FC's.
Do Olympiakos Piraeus and AEK Athens FC tend to score early?
Olympiakos Piraeus have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, AEK Athens FC in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Olympiakos Piraeus edge out AEK Athens FC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Olympiakos Piraeus beat AEK Athens FC 1-0 at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki, Championship Round - 3, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Olympiakos Piraeus 1.16 xG and AEK Athens FC 1.02 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. AEK Athens FC landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.14 / defence 0.81 against AEK Athens FC attack 1.15 / defence 0.80, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Olympiakos Piraeus 39% | Draw 29% | AEK Athens FC 32%, with Olympiakos Piraeus to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Olympiakos Piraeus 58%, AEK Athens FC 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
AEK Athens FC's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Olympiakos Piraeus 2.16 PPG, AEK Athens FC 2.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Olympiakos Piraeus win broke the near-deadlock. Olympiakos Piraeus (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.38 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.84 average — tighter than their form line. AEK Athens FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.72 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.