OFI 1-2 PAOK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates OFI at 38%, yet in-form PAOK provide a compelling counter-argument — this OFI vs PAOK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees PAOK travel to Apostolos Nikolaidis Stadium to take on OFI. The game is scheduled for Sunday 14 September 2025, 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League 1 games this season, OFI have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L L D D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. OFI have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
OFI at Apostolos Nikolaidis Stadium this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
PAOK — All Games: 7W 0D 3L from 10 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. PAOK have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
PAOK's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. PAOK's 2.10 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of OFI's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 8 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for OFI, 4 for PAOK and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Feb 2025, ended 0–5 with PAOK winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
OFI trading profile (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
PAOK trading profile (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — OFI 52% versus PAOK 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (OFI 54% | PAOK 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects OFI 1.29 xG and PAOK 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OFI attack 1.045 / defence 1.041 | PAOK attack 1.069 / defence 0.976. League average goals — home 1.264 / away 1.122. Data: 27 OFI games / 28 PAOK games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: OFI 38% | Draw 27% | PAOK 36%. Fair-value odds: OFI 2.63 | Draw 3.70 | PAOK 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates OFI as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form PAOK (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on OFI offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.54 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: OFI 50% | PAOK 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (27 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: OFI vs PAOK | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Apostolos Nikolaidis Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Sep 2025, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: OFI 38% | Draw 27% | PAOK 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG OFI 1.29 / PAOK 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: OFI attack 1.045 / def 1.041 | PAOK attack 1.069 / def 0.976 | league avg home 1.264 / away 1.122 • Poisson stance: OFI (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
OFI xG
Expected Goals
1.25
PAOK xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does OFI vs PAOK kick off?
OFI vs PAOK kicked off at 19:30 on Sunday 14 September 2025 at Apostolos Nikolaidis Stadium.
What was the final score in OFI vs PAOK?
OFI 1 - 2 PAOK.
Where is OFI vs PAOK being played?
The match is being played at Apostolos Nikolaidis Stadium.
What competition is OFI vs PAOK part of?
OFI vs PAOK is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win OFI vs PAOK?
Our statistical model gives OFI a 38% chance of winning, PAOK a 36% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making OFI the favourite.
Will both teams score in OFI vs PAOK?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both OFI and PAOK will score (BTTS).
Will OFI vs PAOK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and PAOK?
Record (8 meetings): OFI 2W | Draws 2 | PAOK 4W.
What form are OFI and PAOK in?
OFI (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-D-D-W. PAOK (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from OFI's attack rating (1.04) and PAOK's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.29 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, PAOK's attack versus OFI's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (27/28 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
OFI Win
38%
2.66
27%
3.74
36%
2.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
OFI xG
Total xG
2.54
1.25
PAOK xG
2.66
38%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
2.81
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
29%
3.49
28%
3.63
Win to Nil
11%
9.27
10%
10.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 9.9 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.7 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.2 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for OFI vs PAOK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are OFI and PAOK expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for OFI and 1.25 for PAOK, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for OFI vs PAOK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
OFI come into this having played 33 games, going 11W 8D 14L for 1.24 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-D-W. It's still early in the season for OFI, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, PAOK sit at 1.85 PPG from 33 outings (19W 4D 10L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for PAOK, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
PAOK carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.61 PPG clear of OFI — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
OFI's home form reads 5W 4D 7L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.19 PPG return.
Away from home, PAOK have taken 1.81 points per game from 16 outings (9W 2D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PAOK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
OFI are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; PAOK are on 1.85 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Defensively: PAOK in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 33 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
OFI
Early Season
PAOK
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are OFI and PAOK in coming into this match?
OFI have gone 11W 8D 14L in their last 33 games (1.24 PPG), while PAOK have gone 19W 4D 10L in their last 33 (1.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — OFI at home or PAOK away?
PAOK's away record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — OFI at home: 1.19 PPG; PAOK away: 1.81 PPG.
Have OFI or PAOK been keeping clean sheets recently?
OFI have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, PAOK in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
PAOK have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Feb 2025, when PAOK won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
OFI's record when hosting PAOK specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
OFI
2
Draws
6
PAOK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and PAOK?
From 10 meetings on record, OFI have won 2, PAOK have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did OFI and PAOK last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when PAOK 3-0 OFI.
Who has won more matches between OFI and PAOK?
PAOK have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
PAOK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — OFI at 56%, PAOK at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for OFI and 75% for PAOK. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: OFI have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = OFI home games / PAOK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when OFI play PAOK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of OFI's games and 75% of PAOK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is OFI vs PAOK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of OFI's matches and 75% of PAOK's.
Do OFI and PAOK tend to score early?
OFI have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, PAOK in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as PAOK defy the odds to beat OFI 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAOK beat OFI 1-2 at Apostolos Nikolaidis Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting OFI 1.29 xG and PAOK 1.25 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OFI attack 1.04 / defence 1.04 against PAOK attack 1.07 / defence 0.98, drawn from 27/28 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it OFI 38% | Draw 27% | PAOK 36%, with OFI to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual PAOK win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OFI 54%, PAOK 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
OFI's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
PAOK's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, PAOK arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 1.24. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.