OFI 1-2 Panetolikos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates OFI at 46% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this OFI vs Panetolikos encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Panetolikos travel to Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis to take on OFI in Super League 1 (Relegation Round - 7). The game is scheduled for Saturday 11 May 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Guide
OFI — last 10 games: 3W 6D 1L, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: D W D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
OFI at home: 4W 4D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across their last 10 games, Panetolikos have recorded 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Panetolikos have gone 2W 5D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — OFI at 1.50 PPG versus Panetolikos's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of OFI: 3 wins from 4 H2H matches against 0 for Panetolikos, with 1 draw.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 20 Jan 2024, ended OFI 1–0 Panetolikos — a OFI win.
The head-to-head data gives OFI an edge — 3 wins from 4 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
Trading Patterns
OFI in-play and half-time data (last 65 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 24 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Panetolikos in-play and half-time data (last 65 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — OFI 48% versus Panetolikos 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (OFI 46% | Panetolikos 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects OFI 1.59 xG and Panetolikos 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OFI attack 0.945 / defence 0.936 | Panetolikos attack 0.874 / defence 1.032. League average goals — home 1.635 / away 1.362. Data: built from OFI's last 52 games and Panetolikos's last 52.
Result probabilities: OFI 46% | Draw 29% | Panetolikos 24%. Fair-value odds: OFI 2.16 | Draw 3.41 | Panetolikos 4.10. OFI hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, OFI are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. The head-to-head data (OFI 3 wins from 4 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on OFI offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.71 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: OFI 50% (last 10 home games) | Panetolikos 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: OFI vs Panetolikos | Competition: Super League 1, Relegation Round - 7 | Venue: Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis • Kick-off: Saturday 11 May 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: OFI 46% | Draw 29% | Panetolikos 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG OFI 1.59 / Panetolikos 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: OFI attack 0.945 / def 0.936 | Panetolikos attack 0.874 / def 1.032 | league avg home 1.635 / away 1.362 • Poisson stance: OFI (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
OFI xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Panetolikos xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ OFI vs Panetolikos FAQs
What time does OFI vs Panetolikos kick off?
OFI vs Panetolikos kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Saturday 11 May 2024 at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis.
What was the final score in OFI vs Panetolikos?
OFI 1 - 2 Panetolikos.
Where is OFI vs Panetolikos being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis.
What competition is OFI vs Panetolikos part of?
OFI vs Panetolikos is a Super League 1 fixture (Relegation Round - 7) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win OFI vs Panetolikos?
Our statistical model gives OFI a 46% chance of winning, Panetolikos a 24% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making OFI the favourite.
Will both teams score in OFI vs Panetolikos?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both OFI and Panetolikos will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will OFI vs Panetolikos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
OFI's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Panetolikos's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.59. The same calculation in reverse, Panetolikos's attack versus OFI's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from OFI's last 52 games and Panetolikos's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
OFI Win
46%
2.16
29%
3.41
24%
4.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
OFI xG
Total xG
2.71
1.11
Panetolikos xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
4.10
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
33%
3.05
20%
4.93
Win to Nil
15%
6.58
5%
20.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 7.4 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 11.8 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.4 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ OFI vs Panetolikos Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for OFI vs Panetolikos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are OFI and Panetolikos expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for OFI and 1.11 for Panetolikos, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for OFI vs Panetolikos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
OFI's recent record stands at 17W 25D 23L from 65 games, a 1.17 PPG return, with D-W-D-W-D in the last five.
Panetolikos, meanwhile, have gone 15W 18D 32L across 65 games — 0.97 PPG, with D-L-W-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: OFI on 1.17 PPG, Panetolikos on 0.97. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, OFI have managed 10W 13D 9L from their last 32 home games — 1.34 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Panetolikos's away record stands at 6W 10D 16L across their last 32 away games, a 0.88 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, OFI come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
OFI are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Panetolikos are on 1.02 scored and 1.55 conceded.
Last 65 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
OFI
Current Season
Panetolikos
Current Season
OFI (Home) vs Panetolikos (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
OFI
Current Season
Panetolikos
Current Season
❓ OFI vs Panetolikos Form FAQs
What form are OFI and Panetolikos in coming into this match?
OFI have gone 17W 25D 23L in their last 65 games (1.17 PPG), while Panetolikos have gone 15W 18D 32L in their last 65 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — OFI at home or Panetolikos away?
OFI's home record (1.34 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — OFI at home: 1.34 PPG; Panetolikos away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to January 2023. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent was as recently as 1 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
OFI have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 9 Jan 2023, when OFI won Panetolikos 0-4 OFI.
OFI's record when hosting Panetolikos specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
OFI
1
Draws
4
Panetolikos
Recent Meetings
❓ OFI vs Panetolikos H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and Panetolikos?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, OFI have won 5, Panetolikos have won 4, and 1 has been drawn.
When did OFI and Panetolikos last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 November 2026: Panetolikos 0-1 OFI.
Who has won more matches between OFI and Panetolikos?
OFI have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Panetolikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — OFI 50%, Panetolikos 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (OFI) and 50% (Panetolikos).
On the defensive side: OFI keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; OFI have failed to score in 31% of games; Panetolikos in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = OFI home games / Panetolikos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ OFI vs Panetolikos Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in OFI and Panetolikos matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of OFI's recent matches and 59% of Panetolikos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are OFI and Panetolikos matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of OFI's recent games and 50% of Panetolikos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do OFI and Panetolikos matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of OFI's recent matches and 78% of Panetolikos's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Panetolikos defy the odds to beat OFI 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Panetolikos beat OFI 1-2 at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis, Relegation Round - 7, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting OFI 1.59 xG and Panetolikos 1.11 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Panetolikos outscored their 1.11 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OFI attack 0.94 / defence 0.94 against Panetolikos attack 0.87 / defence 1.03, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it OFI 46% | Draw 29% | Panetolikos 24%, with OFI to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Panetolikos win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OFI 46%, Panetolikos 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
OFI's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Panetolikos's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — OFI 1.17 PPG, Panetolikos 0.97 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Panetolikos win broke the near-deadlock. OFI (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Panetolikos (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.