OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as OFI take on Olympiakos Piraeus.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees Olympiakos Piraeus travel to Pankritio Stadium to take on OFI. The game is scheduled for Saturday 20 March 2027, 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League 1 games this season, OFI have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: L L W W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for OFI, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, OFI have posted 6W 2D 2L at Pankritio Stadium — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Pankritio Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Olympiakos Piraeus stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.50. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Olympiakos Piraeus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Olympiakos Piraeus have posted 7W 2D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Form points away from home here. Olympiakos Piraeus's 2.30 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of OFI's 1.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Olympiakos Piraeus have the better historical record — 9 wins from 10 previous contests against 1 for OFI.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Sep 2026, ended 1–0 with OFI winning.
It is worth noting that Olympiakos Piraeus have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 9 wins from 10 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Profile
OFI in-play tendencies (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Olympiakos Piraeus in-play tendencies (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — OFI 45% versus Olympiakos Piraeus 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (OFI 64% | Olympiakos Piraeus 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects OFI 1.13 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OFI attack 0.923 / defence 0.820 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.269 / defence 0.765. League average goals — home 1.603 / away 1.034. Olympiakos Piraeus's defence strength of 0.765 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Olympiakos Piraeus have an above-average attack strength of 1.269 — the away xG of 1.08 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 36 OFI games / 36 Olympiakos Piraeus games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: OFI 33% | Draw 36% | Olympiakos Piraeus 31%. Fair-value odds: OFI 3.03 | Draw 2.78 | Olympiakos Piraeus 3.23. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 31% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.21 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: OFI 30% | Olympiakos Piraeus 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Pankritio Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Mar 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: OFI 33% | Draw 36% | Olympiakos Piraeus 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 48% | xG OFI 1.13 / Olympiakos Piraeus 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: OFI attack 0.923 / def 0.820 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.269 / def 0.765 | league avg home 1.603 / away 1.034 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
OFI xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus kick off?
OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 20 March 2027 at Pankritio Stadium.
Where is OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus being played?
The match is being played at Pankritio Stadium.
What competition is OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus part of?
OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our statistical model gives OFI a 33% chance of winning, Olympiakos Piraeus a 31% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both OFI and Olympiakos Piraeus will score (BTTS).
Will OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and Olympiakos Piraeus?
Record (10 meetings): OFI 1W | Draws 0 | Olympiakos Piraeus 9W.
What form are OFI and Olympiakos Piraeus in?
OFI (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-W-D. Olympiakos Piraeus (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from OFI's attack rating (0.92) and Olympiakos Piraeus's defence rating (0.77), the model arrives at 1.13 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Olympiakos Piraeus's attack versus OFI's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.7%), 1-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
33%
3.00
36%
2.78
31%
3.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
OFI xG
Total xG
2.21
1.08
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
3.00
33%
Home win
2.78
36%
Draw
3.27
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
34%
2.93
32%
3.10
Win to Nil
11%
8.79
10%
10.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 11.8 | 6.4 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 13.4 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 7.6 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are OFI and Olympiakos Piraeus expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for OFI and 1.08 for Olympiakos Piraeus, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 42 outings, OFI have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 17W 5D 20L record — L-L-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for OFI is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Olympiakos Piraeus's form line: 26W 11D 5L from 42 games, 2.12 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-D. The sample for Olympiakos Piraeus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Olympiakos Piraeus are the form team by 0.79 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against OFI.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, OFI have posted 1.67 PPG from 21 outings (11W 2D 8L).
On the road, Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 13W 6D 2L from 21 away games — 2.14 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Olympiakos Piraeus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
OFI are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Olympiakos Piraeus are on 1.60 scored and 0.52 conceded.
Defensively: Olympiakos Piraeus in 60% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
OFI
Blended
Olympiakos Piraeus
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are OFI and Olympiakos Piraeus in coming into this match?
OFI have gone 17W 5D 20L in their last 42 games (1.33 PPG), while Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 26W 11D 5L in their last 42 (2.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — OFI at home or Olympiakos Piraeus away?
Olympiakos Piraeus's away record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — OFI at home: 1.67 PPG; Olympiakos Piraeus away: 2.14 PPG.
Have OFI or Olympiakos Piraeus been keeping clean sheets recently?
OFI have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Olympiakos Piraeus in 60%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between OFI and Olympiakos Piraeus runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. The two were last together as recently as 12 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Feb 2024, when Olympiakos Piraeus won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
OFI's record when hosting Olympiakos Piraeus specifically: 0W 0D 4L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
OFI
0
Draws
9
Olympiakos Piraeus
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and Olympiakos Piraeus?
From 10 meetings on record, OFI have won 1, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 9, and 0 have been drawn.
When did OFI and Olympiakos Piraeus last play each other?
They last met on 12 September 2026, when Olympiakos Piraeus 0-1 OFI.
Who has won more matches between OFI and Olympiakos Piraeus?
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Olympiakos Piraeus see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — OFI 33%, Olympiakos Piraeus 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (OFI) and 33% (Olympiakos Piraeus).
On the defensive side: OFI keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Olympiakos Piraeus in 57%; OFI have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = OFI home games / Olympiakos Piraeus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when OFI play Olympiakos Piraeus?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of OFI's recent matches and 43% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of OFI's recent games and 33% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do OFI and Olympiakos Piraeus tend to score early?
OFI have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Olympiakos Piraeus in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.