OFI 2-0 Levadiakos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates OFI at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this OFI vs Levadiakos encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League 1 clash, Conference League Group - 2 as OFI welcome Levadiakos to Pankritio Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 18 April 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, OFI stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for OFI, so this record blends games from this season and last.
OFI's home record at Pankritio Stadium: 5W 0D 5L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Levadiakos — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Levadiakos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Levadiakos's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
OFI carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.50 vs 0.90. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 7 previous meetings, OFI have won 2, Levadiakos 2, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Feb 2026, ended 3–2 with OFI winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
OFI in-play tendencies (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Levadiakos in-play tendencies (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — OFI 49% versus Levadiakos 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (OFI 63% | Levadiakos 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects OFI 1.85 xG and Levadiakos 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OFI attack 1.120 / defence 1.118 | Levadiakos attack 1.066 / defence 1.265. League average goals — home 1.305 / away 1.064. Levadiakos bring a strong defensive rating of 1.265 — this is suppressing OFI's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 52 OFI games / 52 Levadiakos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: OFI 49% | Draw 26% | Levadiakos 25%. Fair-value odds: OFI 2.04 | Draw 3.85 | Levadiakos 4.00. OFI hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.85 / 1.27) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates OFI as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on OFI offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.12 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: OFI 20% | Levadiakos 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: OFI vs Levadiakos | Competition: Super League 1, Conference League Group - 2 | Venue: Pankritio Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Apr 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: OFI 49% | Draw 26% | Levadiakos 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG OFI 1.85 / Levadiakos 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: OFI attack 1.120 / def 1.118 | Levadiakos attack 1.066 / def 1.265 | league avg home 1.305 / away 1.064 • Poisson stance: OFI (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.85
OFI xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Levadiakos xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does OFI vs Levadiakos kick off?
OFI vs Levadiakos kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 18 April 2026 at Pankritio Stadium.
What was the final score in OFI vs Levadiakos?
OFI 2 - 0 Levadiakos.
Where is OFI vs Levadiakos being played?
The match is being played at Pankritio Stadium.
What competition is OFI vs Levadiakos part of?
OFI vs Levadiakos is a Conference League Group - 2 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win OFI vs Levadiakos?
Our statistical model gives OFI a 49% chance of winning, Levadiakos a 25% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making OFI the favourite.
Will both teams score in OFI vs Levadiakos?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both OFI and Levadiakos will score (BTTS).
Will OFI vs Levadiakos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and Levadiakos?
Record (7 meetings): OFI 2W | Draws 3 | Levadiakos 2W.
What form are OFI and Levadiakos in?
OFI (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-W-D. Levadiakos (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from OFI's attack rating (1.12) and Levadiakos's defence rating (1.26), the model arrives at 1.85 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Levadiakos's attack versus OFI's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
OFI Win
49%
2.03
26%
3.84
25%
4.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.85
OFI xG
Total xG
3.12
1.27
Levadiakos xG
2.03
49%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
4.07
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.65
Clean Sheet
28%
3.56
16%
6.36
Win to Nil
14%
7.21
4%
25.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 5.6 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 10.4 | 6.6 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.6 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.9 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for OFI vs Levadiakos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are OFI and Levadiakos expected to score?
The model projects 1.85 expected goals for OFI and 1.27 for Levadiakos, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for OFI vs Levadiakos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 59 outings, OFI have picked up 1.20 PPG on a 20W 11D 28L record — L-D-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for OFI is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Levadiakos's form line: 25W 16D 18L from 59 games, 1.54 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-D. The sample for Levadiakos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: OFI on 1.20 PPG, Levadiakos on 1.54. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, OFI have posted 1.28 PPG from 29 outings (11W 4D 14L).
On the road, Levadiakos have gone 11W 9D 9L from 29 away games — 1.45 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
OFI are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Levadiakos are on 1.69 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Last 59 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
OFI
Blended
Levadiakos
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are OFI and Levadiakos in coming into this match?
OFI have gone 20W 11D 28L in their last 59 games (1.20 PPG), while Levadiakos have gone 25W 16D 18L in their last 59 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — OFI at home or Levadiakos away?
Levadiakos's away record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — OFI at home: 1.28 PPG; Levadiakos away: 1.45 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between OFI and Levadiakos runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 13 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Sep 2025, when Levadiakos won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
OFI's record when hosting Levadiakos specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
OFI
3
Draws
3
Levadiakos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and Levadiakos?
From 9 meetings on record, OFI have won 3, Levadiakos have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did OFI and Levadiakos last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2026, when Levadiakos 3-2 OFI.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Levadiakos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 28% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — OFI 45%, Levadiakos 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 66% for OFI and 55% for Levadiakos. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 34% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: OFI have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = OFI home games / Levadiakos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when OFI play Levadiakos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of OFI's recent matches and 59% of Levadiakos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is OFI vs Levadiakos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 66% of OFI's matches and 55% of Levadiakos's.
Do OFI and Levadiakos tend to score early?
OFI have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Levadiakos in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
OFI cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Levadiakos.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
OFI beat Levadiakos 2-0 at Pankritio Stadium, Conference League Group - 2, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting OFI 1.85 xG and Levadiakos 1.27 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Levadiakos landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OFI attack 1.12 / defence 1.12 against Levadiakos attack 1.07 / defence 1.26, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it OFI 49% | Draw 26% | Levadiakos 25%, with OFI to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OFI 63%, Levadiakos 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
OFI's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.
Levadiakos's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — OFI 1.20 PPG, Levadiakos 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the OFI win broke the near-deadlock. OFI (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.45 average — tighter than their form line. Levadiakos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.45 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.