OFI 3-2 Levadiakos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates OFI at 43%, yet in-form Levadiakos provide a compelling counter-argument — this OFI vs Levadiakos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League 1 clash, Regular Season - 20 as OFI welcome Levadiakos to Pankritio Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 8 February 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, OFI stand at 5W 0D 5L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for OFI, so this record blends games from this season and last.
OFI's home record at Pankritio Stadium: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Levadiakos — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Levadiakos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Levadiakos's form when playing away from home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Levadiakos's 2.30 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of OFI's 1.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, OFI have won 1, Levadiakos 2, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Sep 2025, ended 0–4 with Levadiakos winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
OFI in-play tendencies (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Levadiakos in-play tendencies (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — OFI 48% versus Levadiakos 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (OFI 64% | Levadiakos 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects OFI 1.54 xG and Levadiakos 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OFI attack 1.115 / defence 0.872 | Levadiakos attack 1.278 / defence 1.003. League average goals — home 1.375 / away 1.165. Levadiakos have an above-average attack strength of 1.278 — the away xG of 1.30 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 44 OFI games / 45 Levadiakos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: OFI 43% | Draw 25% | Levadiakos 32%. Fair-value odds: OFI 2.33 | Draw 4.00 | Levadiakos 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates OFI as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Levadiakos (2.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on OFI offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.84 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: OFI 40% | Levadiakos 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: OFI vs Levadiakos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Pankritio Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Feb 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: OFI 43% | Draw 25% | Levadiakos 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG OFI 1.54 / Levadiakos 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: OFI attack 1.115 / def 0.872 | Levadiakos attack 1.278 / def 1.003 | league avg home 1.375 / away 1.165 • Poisson stance: OFI (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
OFI xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Levadiakos xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does OFI vs Levadiakos kick off?
OFI vs Levadiakos kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 8 February 2026 at Pankritio Stadium.
What was the final score in OFI vs Levadiakos?
OFI 3 - 2 Levadiakos.
Where is OFI vs Levadiakos being played?
The match is being played at Pankritio Stadium.
What competition is OFI vs Levadiakos part of?
OFI vs Levadiakos is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win OFI vs Levadiakos?
Our statistical model gives OFI a 43% chance of winning, Levadiakos a 32% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making OFI the favourite.
Will both teams score in OFI vs Levadiakos?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both OFI and Levadiakos will score (BTTS).
Will OFI vs Levadiakos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and Levadiakos?
Record (6 meetings): OFI 1W | Draws 3 | Levadiakos 2W.
What form are OFI and Levadiakos in?
OFI (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-W-W. Levadiakos (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from OFI's attack rating (1.11) and Levadiakos's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.54 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Levadiakos's attack versus OFI's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
OFI Win
43%
2.33
25%
4.02
32%
3.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
OFI xG
Total xG
2.84
1.30
Levadiakos xG
2.33
43%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
3.11
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
27%
3.67
22%
4.65
Win to Nil
12%
8.54
7%
14.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 7.6 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 11.7 | 7.6 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.0 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.6 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for OFI vs Levadiakos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are OFI and Levadiakos expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for OFI and 1.30 for Levadiakos, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for OFI vs Levadiakos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 50 outings, OFI have picked up 1.18 PPG on a 17W 8D 25L record — L-W-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for OFI is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Levadiakos's form line: 24W 13D 13L from 50 games, 1.70 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-W. The sample for Levadiakos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Levadiakos are the form team by 0.52 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against OFI.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, OFI have posted 1.24 PPG from 25 outings (9W 4D 12L).
On the road, Levadiakos have gone 11W 9D 5L from 25 away games — 1.68 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Levadiakos come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
OFI are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Levadiakos are on 1.88 scored and 1.16 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Levadiakos in 62%.
Last 50 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
OFI
Blended
Levadiakos
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are OFI and Levadiakos in coming into this match?
OFI have gone 17W 8D 25L in their last 50 games (1.18 PPG), while Levadiakos have gone 24W 13D 13L in their last 50 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — OFI at home or Levadiakos away?
Levadiakos's away record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — OFI at home: 1.24 PPG; Levadiakos away: 1.68 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between OFI and Levadiakos runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 13 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Sep 2025, when Levadiakos won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
OFI's record when hosting Levadiakos specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
OFI
3
Draws
3
Levadiakos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and Levadiakos?
From 9 meetings on record, OFI have won 3, Levadiakos have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did OFI and Levadiakos last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2026, when Levadiakos 3-2 OFI.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Levadiakos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 32% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — OFI 48%, Levadiakos 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (OFI) and 52% (Levadiakos). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: OFI have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = OFI home games / Levadiakos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when OFI play Levadiakos?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of OFI's games and 64% of Levadiakos's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is OFI vs Levadiakos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of OFI's matches and 52% of Levadiakos's.
Do OFI and Levadiakos tend to score early?
OFI have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Levadiakos in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as OFI edge out Levadiakos 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
OFI beat Levadiakos 3-2 at Pankritio Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting OFI 1.54 xG and Levadiakos 1.30 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. OFI beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OFI attack 1.11 / defence 0.87 against Levadiakos attack 1.28 / defence 1.00, drawn from 44/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it OFI 43% | Draw 25% | Levadiakos 32%, with OFI to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OFI 64%, Levadiakos 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
OFI's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Levadiakos's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Levadiakos arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.18. Form was overturned, with OFI winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. OFI (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.44 average — above their attacking norm. Levadiakos (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.