OFI 4-1 Lamia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 42% as OFI take on Lamia.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
OFI and Lamia meet at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis in Super League 1, Relegation Round - 3. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 8 April 2023 at 15:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
OFI have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W L L D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis, OFI have gone 2W 4D 4L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Lamia (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Super League 1 outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: D W D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Lamia have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — OFI have seen both teams score in just 20% of their matches, Lamia in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — OFI lead 2W to 1W over the last 5 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Feb 2023, ended 4–1 with OFI winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
OFI goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (61 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Lamia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (61 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 52% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — OFI 48% versus Lamia 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (OFI 46% | Lamia 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects OFI 0.88 xG and Lamia 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OFI attack 0.619 / defence 1.204 | Lamia attack 0.710 / defence 1.135. League average goals — home 1.246 / away 0.999. OFI's attack strength of 0.619 is below the league average — the 0.88 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 52 OFI games / 52 Lamia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: OFI 30% | Draw 42% | Lamia 29%. Fair-value odds: OFI 3.33 | Draw 2.38 | Lamia 3.45. The draw (42%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.73. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.73 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 42% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 30% and away win at 29% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.73 combined xG gives a 25% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 37%. Form rates corroborate: OFI 20% | Lamia 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: OFI vs Lamia | Competition: Super League 1, Relegation Round - 3 | Venue: Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Apr 2023, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: OFI 30% | Draw 42% | Lamia 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 25% | BTTS 37% | xG OFI 0.88 / Lamia 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: OFI attack 0.619 / def 1.204 | Lamia attack 0.710 / def 1.135 | league avg home 1.246 / away 0.999 • Poisson stance: Draw (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.88
OFI xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Lamia xG
37%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does OFI vs Lamia kick off?
OFI vs Lamia kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 8 April 2023 at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis.
What was the final score in OFI vs Lamia?
OFI 4 - 1 Lamia.
Where is OFI vs Lamia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis.
What competition is OFI vs Lamia part of?
OFI vs Lamia is a Relegation Round - 3 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win OFI vs Lamia?
Our statistical model gives OFI a 30% chance of winning, Lamia a 29% chance, and a 42% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in OFI vs Lamia?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both OFI and Lamia will score (BTTS).
Will OFI vs Lamia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 25%.
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and Lamia?
Record (5 meetings): OFI 2W | Draws 2 | Lamia 1W.
What form are OFI and Lamia in?
OFI (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-D-W. Lamia (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates OFI's attack at 0.62x the league average against Lamia's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 0.88 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Lamia's attack (0.71x) against OFI's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 0.85.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 19.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
30%
3.36
42%
2.40
29%
3.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
17.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
15.5%
Home win
0 – 1
15.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.88
OFI xG
Total xG
1.73
0.85
Lamia xG
3.36
30%
Home win
2.40
42%
Draw
3.50
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
52%
Over 1.5
1.92
48%
Under 1.5
2.08
25%
Over 2.5
4.00
75%
Under 2.5
1.33
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.67
63%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
43%
2.35
42%
2.40
Win to Nil
13%
7.90
12%
8.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.7 | 15.2 | 6.5 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.5 | 13.3 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for OFI vs Lamia?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.5%.
How many goals are OFI and Lamia expected to score?
The model projects 0.88 expected goals for OFI and 0.85 for Lamia, a combined total of 1.73.
How confident is the prediction model for OFI vs Lamia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
OFI come into this having played 61 games, going 18W 20D 23L for 1.21 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-D-W.
On the other side, Lamia sit at 0.87 PPG from 61 outings (11W 20D 30L), a run that reads D-W-D-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.21 PPG for OFI against 0.87 for Lamia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
OFI's home form reads 8W 10D 13L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.10 PPG return.
Away from home, Lamia have taken 0.94 points per game from 31 outings (6W 11D 14L).
Attack vs Defence
OFI are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Lamia are on 0.70 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Last 61 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
OFI
Current Season
Lamia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are OFI and Lamia in coming into this match?
OFI have gone 18W 20D 23L in their last 61 games (1.21 PPG), while Lamia have gone 11W 20D 30L in their last 61 (0.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — OFI at home or Lamia away?
OFI's home record (1.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — OFI at home: 1.10 PPG; Lamia away: 0.94 PPG.
Have OFI or Lamia been keeping clean sheets recently?
OFI have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Lamia in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: OFI won 1-4 on 13 Feb 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, OFI have gone 2W 3D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Lamia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
OFI
5
Draws
1
Lamia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and Lamia?
From 10 meetings on record, OFI have won 4, Lamia have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did OFI and Lamia last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2025, when OFI 3-0 Lamia.
Who has won more matches between OFI and Lamia?
OFI have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Lamia see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — OFI 52%, Lamia 32% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (OFI) and 32% (Lamia).
On the defensive side: OFI have failed to score in 36% of games; Lamia in 61%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = OFI home games / Lamia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when OFI play Lamia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of OFI's recent matches and 32% of Lamia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is OFI vs Lamia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of OFI's recent games and 32% of Lamia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do OFI and Lamia tend to score early?
OFI have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Lamia in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant OFI run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Lamia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
OFI beat Lamia 4-1 at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis, Relegation Round - 3, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting OFI 0.88 xG and Lamia 0.85 xG, a combined 1.73. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. OFI beat their projection by 3.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OFI attack 0.62 / defence 1.20 against Lamia attack 0.71 / defence 1.14, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it OFI 30% | Draw 42% | Lamia 29%, with the draw its most likely call at 42%. The actual OFI win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. Over 3.5 was 10% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OFI 46%, Lamia 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
OFI's trading profile (61 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Lamia's trading profile (61 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — OFI 1.21 PPG, Lamia 0.87 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the OFI win broke the near-deadlock. OFI (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Lamia (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.23 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.