OFI 2-2 Kallithea – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates OFI at 47% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this OFI vs Kallithea encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Kallithea travel to Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis to take on OFI in Super League 1 (matchday 11). The game is scheduled for Sunday 10 November 2024 at 14:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, OFI stand at 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
OFI at home: 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Kallithea have recorded 0W 6D 4L — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
On the road, Kallithea have gone 0W 3D 2L in their last 5 away fixtures (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from their last 5 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
OFI carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.40 vs 0.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Trading Patterns
OFI in-play and half-time data (last 10 games, 4 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches in home games; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Kallithea in-play and half-time data (last 10 games, 4 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — OFI 70% and Kallithea 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (OFI 70% | Kallithea 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects OFI 1.31 xG and Kallithea 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OFI attack 1.038 / defence 1.101 | Kallithea attack 0.620 / defence 1.079. League average goals — home 1.173 / away 1.194. Kallithea's attack rating of 0.620 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.81. Data: built from OFI's last 36 games and Kallithea's last 10.
Result probabilities: OFI 47% | Draw 30% | Kallithea 22%. Fair-value odds: OFI 2.11 | Draw 3.32 | Kallithea 4.47. OFI hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is OFI at 47% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on OFI offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.13 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 64% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (OFI's last 10 home games and Kallithea's last 5 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 58%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: OFI 60% (last 10 home games) | Kallithea 40% (last 5 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: OFI vs Kallithea | Competition: Super League 1, matchday 11 | Venue: Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis • Kick-off: Sunday 10 November 2024 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: OFI 47% | Draw 30% | Kallithea 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% (Under 64%) | BTTS Yes 42% (No 58%) | xG OFI 1.31 / Kallithea 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: OFI attack 1.038 / def 1.101 | Kallithea attack 0.620 / def 1.079 | league avg home 1.173 / away 1.194 • Poisson stance: OFI (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
OFI xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Kallithea xG
42%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ OFI vs Kallithea FAQs
What time does OFI vs Kallithea kick off?
OFI vs Kallithea kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Sunday 10 November 2024 at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis.
What was the final score in OFI vs Kallithea?
OFI 2 - 2 Kallithea.
Where is OFI vs Kallithea being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis.
What competition is OFI vs Kallithea part of?
OFI vs Kallithea is a Super League 1 fixture (matchday 11) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win OFI vs Kallithea?
Our statistical model gives OFI a 47% chance of winning, Kallithea a 22% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making OFI the favourite.
Will both teams score in OFI vs Kallithea?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both OFI and Kallithea will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (58%).
Will OFI vs Kallithea have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (64%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
OFI's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Kallithea's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.31. The same calculation in reverse, Kallithea's attack versus OFI's defence, projects 0.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from OFI's last 36 games and Kallithea's last 10 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (14.0%), 0-0 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
OFI Win
47%
2.11
30%
3.32
22%
4.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
11.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
OFI xG
Total xG
2.13
0.81
Kallithea xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
4.47
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
44%
2.26
27%
3.72
Win to Nil
21%
4.76
6%
16.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 9.7 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.6 | 12.7 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.3 | 8.4 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.5 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ OFI vs Kallithea Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for OFI vs Kallithea?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are OFI and Kallithea expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for OFI and 0.81 for Kallithea, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for OFI vs Kallithea?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 10 outings, OFI have picked up 1.40 PPG on a 4W 2D 4L record — L-W-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Kallithea's form line: 0W 6D 4L from 10 games, 0.60 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-D.
Put side by side, OFI are the form team by 0.80 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Kallithea.
Venue Form
On home soil, OFI have posted 1.00 PPG from their last 4 home games (1W 1D 2L).
On the road, Kallithea have gone 0W 2D 2L from their last 4 away games — 0.50 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, OFI come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
OFI are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Kallithea are on 0.60 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: OFI have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Last 10 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
OFI
Blended
Kallithea
Blended
OFI (Home) vs Kallithea (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
OFI
Blended
Kallithea
Blended
❓ OFI vs Kallithea Form FAQs
What form are OFI and Kallithea in coming into this match?
OFI have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 games (1.40 PPG), while Kallithea have gone 0W 6D 4L in their last 10 (0.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — OFI at home or Kallithea away?
OFI's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — OFI at home: 1.00 PPG; Kallithea away: 0.50 PPG.
Have OFI or Kallithea been keeping clean sheets recently?
OFI have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Kallithea in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 2 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from November 2024. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent in our data was on 22 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
OFI
1
Draws
0
Kallithea
Recent Meetings
❓ OFI vs Kallithea H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and Kallithea?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, OFI have won 1, Kallithea have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did OFI and Kallithea last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 February 2025: Kallithea 1-3 OFI.
Who has won more matches between OFI and Kallithea?
OFI have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 67% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Kallithea see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — OFI 75%, Kallithea 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (OFI) and 25% (Kallithea).
On the defensive side: Kallithea in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = OFI home games / Kallithea away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ OFI vs Kallithea Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in OFI and Kallithea matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of OFI's games and 50% of Kallithea's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are OFI and Kallithea matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of OFI's recent games and 25% of Kallithea's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do OFI and Kallithea matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 100% of OFI's recent matches and 50% of Kallithea's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
OFI and Kallithea share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis, Regular Season - 11, as OFI and Kallithea drew 2-2 in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting OFI 1.31 xG and Kallithea 0.81 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Kallithea outscored their 0.81 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OFI attack 1.04 / defence 1.10 against Kallithea attack 0.62 / defence 1.08, drawn from 36/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it OFI 47% | Draw 30% | Kallithea 22%, with OFI to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OFI 70%, Kallithea 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
OFI's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Kallithea's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, OFI arrived the stronger side — 1.40 PPG against 0.60. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Kallithea (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.