OFI 0-2 Ionikos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates OFI at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this OFI vs Ionikos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Ionikos travel to Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis to take on OFI. The game is scheduled for Saturday 5 November 2022, 16:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, OFI stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L D D D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for OFI, so this record blends games from this season and last.
OFI's home record at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Ionikos — All Games: 0W 4D 6L from 10 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L D L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ionikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ionikos's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: OFI 0.70 PPG, Ionikos 0.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for OFI, 1 for Ionikos and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Mar 2022, ended 2–3 with Ionikos winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
OFI in-play and half-time data (43 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Ionikos in-play and half-time data (43 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — OFI 56% versus Ionikos 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (OFI 49% | Ionikos 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects OFI 1.42 xG and Ionikos 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OFI attack 0.845 / defence 1.061 | Ionikos attack 0.869 / defence 1.370. League average goals — home 1.230 / away 1.139. Ionikos bring a strong defensive rating of 1.370 — this is suppressing OFI's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 36 OFI games / 36 Ionikos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: OFI 42% | Draw 34% | Ionikos 24%. Fair-value odds: OFI 2.38 | Draw 2.94 | Ionikos 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is OFI at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on OFI offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.47 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: OFI 50% | Ionikos 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: OFI vs Ionikos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Nov 2022, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: OFI 42% | Draw 34% | Ionikos 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 53% | xG OFI 1.42 / Ionikos 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: OFI attack 0.845 / def 1.061 | Ionikos attack 0.869 / def 1.370 | league avg home 1.230 / away 1.139 • Poisson stance: OFI (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
OFI xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Ionikos xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does OFI vs Ionikos kick off?
OFI vs Ionikos kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 5 November 2022 at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis.
What was the final score in OFI vs Ionikos?
OFI 0 - 2 Ionikos.
Where is OFI vs Ionikos being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis.
What competition is OFI vs Ionikos part of?
OFI vs Ionikos is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win OFI vs Ionikos?
Our statistical model gives OFI a 42% chance of winning, Ionikos a 24% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making OFI the favourite.
Will both teams score in OFI vs Ionikos?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both OFI and Ionikos will score (BTTS).
Will OFI vs Ionikos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and Ionikos?
Record (3 meetings): OFI 1W | Draws 1 | Ionikos 1W.
What form are OFI and Ionikos in?
OFI (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-D-D. Ionikos (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
OFI's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Ionikos's defensive record (1.37x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.42. The same calculation in reverse, Ionikos's attack versus OFI's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.4%), 0-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
OFI Win
42%
2.38
34%
2.97
24%
4.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
OFI xG
Total xG
2.47
1.05
Ionikos xG
2.38
42%
Home win
2.97
34%
Draw
4.12
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
35%
2.86
24%
4.15
Win to Nil
15%
6.79
6%
17.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 8.8 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 12.6 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.0 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for OFI vs Ionikos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are OFI and Ionikos expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for OFI and 1.05 for Ionikos, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for OFI vs Ionikos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 43 outings, OFI have picked up 1.19 PPG on a 12W 15D 16L record — L-L-D-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for OFI is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ionikos's form line: 12W 13D 18L from 43 games, 1.14 PPG, last five L-D-L-D-D. The sample for Ionikos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: OFI on 1.19 PPG, Ionikos on 1.14. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, OFI have posted 1.14 PPG from 22 outings (6W 7D 9L).
On the road, Ionikos have gone 6W 4D 12L from 22 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
OFI are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Ionikos are on 1.21 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
OFI
Blended
Ionikos
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are OFI and Ionikos in coming into this match?
OFI have gone 12W 15D 16L in their last 43 games (1.19 PPG), while Ionikos have gone 12W 13D 18L in their last 43 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — OFI at home or Ionikos away?
OFI's home record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — OFI at home: 1.14 PPG; Ionikos away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between OFI and Ionikos runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
OFI's record when hosting Ionikos specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
OFI
2
Draws
2
Ionikos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and Ionikos?
From 6 meetings on record, OFI have won 2, Ionikos have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did OFI and Ionikos last play each other?
They last met on 6 May 2023, when OFI 2-2 Ionikos.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Ionikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — OFI 64%, Ionikos 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (OFI) and 50% (Ionikos).
On the defensive side: Ionikos in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = OFI home games / Ionikos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when OFI play Ionikos?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of OFI's games and 54% of Ionikos's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is OFI vs Ionikos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of OFI's recent games and 50% of Ionikos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do OFI and Ionikos tend to score early?
OFI have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Ionikos in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ionikos cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over OFI.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ionikos beat OFI 0-2 at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis, Regular Season - 11, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting OFI 1.42 xG and Ionikos 1.05 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. OFI fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Ionikos outscored their 1.05 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OFI attack 0.84 / defence 1.06 against Ionikos attack 0.87 / defence 1.37, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it OFI 42% | Draw 34% | Ionikos 24%, with OFI to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a Ionikos win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OFI 49%, Ionikos 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
OFI's trading profile (43 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Ionikos's trading profile (43 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — OFI 1.19 PPG, Ionikos 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ionikos win broke the near-deadlock. OFI (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward. Ionikos (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.64 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.