OFI 2-1 Ionikos – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates OFI at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this OFI vs Ionikos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Ionikos travel to Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis to take on OFI. The game is scheduled for Sunday 28 November 2021, 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, OFI stand at 3W 6D 1L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D D W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for OFI, so this record blends games from this season and last.
OFI's home record at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis: 1W 3D 1L from 5 Super League 1 appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 5 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis.
Ionikos — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Ionikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ionikos's away record: 1W 1D 3L from 5 road trips in Super League 1 this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 5 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
OFI are in the better shape of the two on current Super League 1 data — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Trading Patterns
OFI in-play and half-time data (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 0% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time; they fail to score in 40% of games.
Ionikos in-play and half-time data (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — OFI 40% versus Ionikos 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (OFI 30% | Ionikos 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects OFI 1.20 xG and Ionikos 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OFI attack 0.888 / defence 1.089 | Ionikos attack 0.679 / defence 1.234. League average goals — home 1.097 / away 1.304. Ionikos bring a strong defensive rating of 1.234 — this is suppressing OFI's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 10 OFI games / 10 Ionikos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: OFI 40% | Draw 32% | Ionikos 28%. Fair-value odds: OFI 2.50 | Draw 3.12 | Ionikos 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is OFI at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on OFI offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.17 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates corroborate: OFI 40% | Ionikos 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: OFI vs Ionikos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Nov 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: OFI 40% | Draw 32% | Ionikos 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 45% | xG OFI 1.20 / Ionikos 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: OFI attack 0.888 / def 1.089 | Ionikos attack 0.679 / def 1.234 | league avg home 1.097 / away 1.304 • Poisson stance: OFI (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
OFI xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Ionikos xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does OFI vs Ionikos kick off?
OFI vs Ionikos kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 28 November 2021 at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis.
What was the final score in OFI vs Ionikos?
OFI 2 - 1 Ionikos.
Where is OFI vs Ionikos being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis.
What competition is OFI vs Ionikos part of?
OFI vs Ionikos is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win OFI vs Ionikos?
Our statistical model gives OFI a 40% chance of winning, Ionikos a 28% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making OFI the favourite.
Will both teams score in OFI vs Ionikos?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both OFI and Ionikos will score (BTTS).
Will OFI vs Ionikos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and Ionikos?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are OFI and Ionikos in?
OFI (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-D-W-W. Ionikos (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
OFI's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Ionikos's defensive record (1.23x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.20. The same calculation in reverse, Ionikos's attack versus OFI's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.2%), 1-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
OFI Win
40%
2.50
32%
3.12
28%
3.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
OFI xG
Total xG
2.17
0.96
Ionikos xG
2.50
40%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
3.58
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
30%
3.33
Win to Nil
15%
6.54
8%
11.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 11.0 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 13.3 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 8.0 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for OFI vs Ionikos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are OFI and Ionikos expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for OFI and 0.96 for Ionikos, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for OFI vs Ionikos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 10 outings, OFI have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 3W 6D 1L record — W-D-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for OFI is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ionikos's form line: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games, 1.00 PPG, last five L-W-D-L-D. The sample for Ionikos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, OFI are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Ionikos.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, OFI have posted 1.20 PPG from 5 outings (1W 3D 1L).
On the road, Ionikos have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 away games — 0.80 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
OFI are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game recently; Ionikos are on 0.70 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Defensively: OFI have kept a clean sheet in 60% of their games; Ionikos in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 10 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
OFI
Blended
Ionikos
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are OFI and Ionikos in coming into this match?
OFI have gone 3W 6D 1L in their last 10 games (1.50 PPG), while Ionikos have gone 2W 4D 4L in their last 10 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — OFI at home or Ionikos away?
OFI's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — OFI at home: 1.20 PPG; Ionikos away: 0.80 PPG.
Have OFI or Ionikos been keeping clean sheets recently?
OFI have kept a clean sheet in 60% of their recent games, Ionikos in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between OFI and Ionikos runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
OFI's record when hosting Ionikos specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
OFI
2
Draws
2
Ionikos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and Ionikos?
From 6 meetings on record, OFI have won 2, Ionikos have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did OFI and Ionikos last play each other?
They last met on 6 May 2023, when OFI 2-2 Ionikos.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Ionikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — OFI 40% BTTS, Ionikos 20%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (OFI) and 40% (Ionikos).
On the defensive side: OFI keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; Ionikos in 40%; OFI have failed to score in 40% of games; Ionikos in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = OFI home games / Ionikos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when OFI play Ionikos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of OFI's recent matches and 20% of Ionikos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is OFI vs Ionikos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of OFI's recent games and 40% of Ionikos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do OFI and Ionikos tend to score early?
OFI have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Ionikos in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as OFI edge out Ionikos 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
OFI beat Ionikos 2-1 at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis, Regular Season - 11, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting OFI 1.20 xG and Ionikos 0.96 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OFI attack 0.89 / defence 1.09 against Ionikos attack 0.68 / defence 1.23, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it OFI 40% | Draw 32% | Ionikos 28%, with OFI to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 30% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OFI 30%, Ionikos 30%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
OFI's trading profile (10 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time, and conceded here.
Ionikos's trading profile (10 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, OFI arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. OFI (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.