OFI 0-1 Atromitos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as OFI take on Atromitos.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis plays host to OFI versus Atromitos in Super League 1, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Thursday 22 December 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
OFI have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: D D L L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for OFI, so this record blends games from this season and last.
OFI at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Atromitos (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Super League 1 outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Atromitos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Atromitos have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.70 for OFI, 1.10 for Atromitos — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading Data
OFI goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Atromitos goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — OFI 54% versus Atromitos 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (OFI 50% | Atromitos 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects OFI 1.17 xG and Atromitos 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OFI attack 0.828 / defence 1.161 | Atromitos attack 0.953 / defence 1.134. League average goals — home 1.243 / away 1.046. Data: 39 OFI games / 39 Atromitos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: OFI 32% | Draw 36% | Atromitos 32%. Fair-value odds: OFI 3.12 | Draw 2.78 | Atromitos 3.12. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.33 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: OFI 50% | Atromitos 50%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: OFI vs Atromitos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis • Kick-off: Thursday 22 Dec 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: OFI 32% | Draw 36% | Atromitos 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 51% | xG OFI 1.17 / Atromitos 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: OFI attack 0.828 / def 1.161 | Atromitos attack 0.953 / def 1.134 | league avg home 1.243 / away 1.046 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
OFI xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Atromitos xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does OFI vs Atromitos kick off?
OFI vs Atromitos kicked off at 15:00 on Thursday 22 December 2022 at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis.
What was the final score in OFI vs Atromitos?
OFI 0 - 1 Atromitos.
Where is OFI vs Atromitos being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis.
What competition is OFI vs Atromitos part of?
OFI vs Atromitos is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win OFI vs Atromitos?
Our statistical model gives OFI a 32% chance of winning, Atromitos a 32% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in OFI vs Atromitos?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both OFI and Atromitos will score (BTTS).
Will OFI vs Atromitos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and Atromitos?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are OFI and Atromitos in?
OFI (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-L-L-W. Atromitos (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
OFI's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Atromitos's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.17. Flip it around — Atromitos's attack (0.95x) against OFI's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.5%), 1-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
32%
3.11
36%
2.77
32%
3.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
OFI xG
Total xG
2.33
1.16
Atromitos xG
3.11
32%
Home win
2.77
36%
Draw
3.15
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
31%
3.18
31%
3.22
Win to Nil
10%
9.89
10%
10.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 11.3 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 13.2 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 7.7 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for OFI vs Atromitos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are OFI and Atromitos expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for OFI and 1.16 for Atromitos, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for OFI vs Atromitos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
OFI come into this having played 46 games, going 13W 15D 18L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-L-W. The sample for OFI is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Atromitos sit at 1.04 PPG from 46 outings (12W 12D 22L), a run that reads L-L-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for Atromitos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.17 PPG for OFI against 1.04 for Atromitos. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
OFI's home form reads 7W 6D 10L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.17 PPG return.
Away from home, Atromitos have taken 0.65 points per game from 23 outings (3W 6D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, OFI come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
OFI are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Atromitos are on 1.02 scored and 1.46 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
OFI
Blended
Atromitos
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are OFI and Atromitos in coming into this match?
OFI have gone 13W 15D 18L in their last 46 games (1.17 PPG), while Atromitos have gone 12W 12D 22L in their last 46 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — OFI at home or Atromitos away?
OFI's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — OFI at home: 1.17 PPG; Atromitos away: 0.65 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, OFI have gone 0W 3D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Atromitos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
OFI
6
Draws
2
Atromitos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and Atromitos?
From 10 meetings on record, OFI have won 2, Atromitos have won 2, and 6 have been drawn.
When did OFI and Atromitos last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Atromitos 1-2 OFI.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Atromitos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — OFI 61%, Atromitos 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (OFI) and 48% (Atromitos).
On the defensive side: OFI have failed to score in 26% of games; Atromitos in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = OFI home games / Atromitos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when OFI play Atromitos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of OFI's recent matches and 44% of Atromitos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is OFI vs Atromitos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of OFI's recent games and 48% of Atromitos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do OFI and Atromitos tend to score early?
OFI have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Atromitos in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Atromitos defy the odds to beat OFI 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atromitos beat OFI 0-1 at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis, Regular Season - 14, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting OFI 1.17 xG and Atromitos 1.16 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. OFI fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OFI attack 0.83 / defence 1.16 against Atromitos attack 0.95 / defence 1.13, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it OFI 32% | Draw 36% | Atromitos 32%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. The actual Atromitos win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OFI 50%, Atromitos 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
OFI's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Atromitos's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — OFI 1.17 PPG, Atromitos 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Atromitos win broke the near-deadlock. OFI (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward. Atromitos (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.74 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.