OFI 1-1 Atromitos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates OFI at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this OFI vs Atromitos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis plays host to OFI versus Atromitos in Super League 1, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off: Saturday 24 August 2024 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
OFI have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: D W D L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. OFI have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
OFI at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Atromitos (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 Super League 1 outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Atromitos have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Atromitos have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for OFI, 1.10 for Atromitos — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: OFI 1W, Atromitos 0W, 3D.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Mar 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
OFI goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (34 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Atromitos goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (34 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — OFI 50% versus Atromitos 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (OFI 53% | Atromitos 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects OFI 1.42 xG and Atromitos 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OFI attack 1.032 / defence 0.987 | Atromitos attack 0.966 / defence 1.023. League average goals — home 1.342 / away 1.224. Data: 27 OFI games / 27 Atromitos games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: OFI 42% | Draw 27% | Atromitos 31%. Fair-value odds: OFI 2.38 | Draw 3.70 | Atromitos 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is OFI at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on OFI if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.58 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: OFI 50% | Atromitos 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (27 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: OFI vs Atromitos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Aug 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: OFI 42% | Draw 27% | Atromitos 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG OFI 1.42 / Atromitos 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: OFI attack 1.032 / def 0.987 | Atromitos attack 0.966 / def 1.023 | league avg home 1.342 / away 1.224 • Poisson stance: OFI (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
OFI xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Atromitos xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does OFI vs Atromitos kick off?
OFI vs Atromitos kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 24 August 2024 at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis.
What was the final score in OFI vs Atromitos?
OFI 1 - 1 Atromitos.
Where is OFI vs Atromitos being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis.
What competition is OFI vs Atromitos part of?
OFI vs Atromitos is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win OFI vs Atromitos?
Our statistical model gives OFI a 42% chance of winning, Atromitos a 31% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making OFI the favourite.
Will both teams score in OFI vs Atromitos?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both OFI and Atromitos will score (BTTS).
Will OFI vs Atromitos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and Atromitos?
Record (4 meetings): OFI 1W | Draws 3 | Atromitos 0W.
What form are OFI and Atromitos in?
OFI (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-D-L-L. Atromitos (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
OFI's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Atromitos's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.42. Flip it around — Atromitos's attack (0.97x) against OFI's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from 27/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.2%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
OFI Win
42%
2.37
27%
3.67
31%
3.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
OFI xG
Total xG
2.58
1.17
Atromitos xG
2.37
42%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
3.28
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
31%
3.21
24%
4.12
Win to Nil
13%
7.60
7%
13.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 8.8 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 12.5 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.8 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for OFI vs Atromitos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are OFI and Atromitos expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for OFI and 1.17 for Atromitos, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for OFI vs Atromitos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
OFI come into this having played 34 games, going 7W 14D 13L for 1.03 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-L-L. It's still early in the season for OFI, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Atromitos sit at 1.03 PPG from 34 outings (7W 14D 13L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Atromitos, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.03 PPG for OFI against 1.03 for Atromitos. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
OFI's home form reads 6W 6D 4L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.03 PPG overall — OFI are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Atromitos have taken 0.75 points per game from 16 outings (2W 6D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, OFI come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
OFI are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Atromitos are on 1.09 scored and 1.59 conceded.
Last 34 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
OFI
Early Season
Atromitos
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are OFI and Atromitos in coming into this match?
OFI have gone 7W 14D 13L in their last 34 games (1.03 PPG), while Atromitos have gone 7W 14D 13L in their last 34 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — OFI at home or Atromitos away?
OFI's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — OFI at home: 1.50 PPG; Atromitos away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, OFI have gone 0W 3D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Atromitos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
OFI
6
Draws
2
Atromitos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and Atromitos?
From 10 meetings on record, OFI have won 2, Atromitos have won 2, and 6 have been drawn.
When did OFI and Atromitos last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Atromitos 1-2 OFI.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Atromitos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — OFI 50%, Atromitos 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (OFI) and 56% (Atromitos).
On the defensive side: OFI keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Atromitos in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = OFI home games / Atromitos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when OFI play Atromitos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of OFI's recent matches and 56% of Atromitos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is OFI vs Atromitos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of OFI's recent games and 56% of Atromitos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do OFI and Atromitos tend to score early?
OFI have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Atromitos in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
OFI and Atromitos share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
OFI and Atromitos finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis, Regular Season - 2, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting OFI 1.42 xG and Atromitos 1.17 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OFI attack 1.03 / defence 0.99 against Atromitos attack 0.97 / defence 1.02, drawn from 27/27 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it OFI 42% | Draw 27% | Atromitos 31%, with OFI to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OFI 53%, Atromitos 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
OFI's trading profile (34 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Atromitos's trading profile (34 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — OFI 1.03 PPG, Atromitos 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Atromitos (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.