OFI 0-0 Atromitos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates OFI at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this OFI vs Atromitos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis plays host to OFI versus Atromitos in Super League 1, Relegation Round - 2. Kick-off: Saturday 30 March 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
OFI have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: W D L D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for OFI, so this record blends games from this season and last.
OFI at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Atromitos (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Super League 1 outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L D W D W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Atromitos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Atromitos have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for OFI, 0.90 for Atromitos — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: OFI 1W, Atromitos 0W, 2D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 13 Jan 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
OFI goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Atromitos goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — OFI 47% versus Atromitos 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (OFI 45% | Atromitos 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects OFI 1.56 xG and Atromitos 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OFI attack 0.929 / defence 0.920 | Atromitos attack 0.786 / defence 1.025. League average goals — home 1.635 / away 1.360. Data: 52 OFI games / 52 Atromitos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: OFI 48% | Draw 30% | Atromitos 22%. Fair-value odds: OFI 2.08 | Draw 3.33 | Atromitos 4.55. OFI hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is OFI at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on OFI if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.54 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: OFI 50% | Atromitos 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: OFI vs Atromitos | Competition: Super League 1, Relegation Round - 2 | Venue: Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Mar 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: OFI 48% | Draw 30% | Atromitos 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG OFI 1.56 / Atromitos 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: OFI attack 0.929 / def 0.920 | Atromitos attack 0.786 / def 1.025 | league avg home 1.635 / away 1.360 • Poisson stance: OFI (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
OFI xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Atromitos xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does OFI vs Atromitos kick off?
OFI vs Atromitos kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 30 March 2024 at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis.
What was the final score in OFI vs Atromitos?
OFI 0 - 0 Atromitos.
Where is OFI vs Atromitos being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis.
What competition is OFI vs Atromitos part of?
OFI vs Atromitos is a Relegation Round - 2 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win OFI vs Atromitos?
Our statistical model gives OFI a 48% chance of winning, Atromitos a 22% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making OFI the favourite.
Will both teams score in OFI vs Atromitos?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both OFI and Atromitos will score (BTTS).
Will OFI vs Atromitos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and Atromitos?
Record (3 meetings): OFI 1W | Draws 2 | Atromitos 0W.
What form are OFI and Atromitos in?
OFI (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-L-D-D. Atromitos (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
OFI's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Atromitos's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.56. Flip it around — Atromitos's attack (0.79x) against OFI's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.7%), 2-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
OFI Win
48%
2.07
30%
3.33
22%
4.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
OFI xG
Total xG
2.54
0.98
Atromitos xG
2.07
48%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
4.63
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
37%
2.67
21%
4.74
Win to Nil
18%
5.52
5%
21.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 7.8 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 12.1 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.4 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for OFI vs Atromitos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are OFI and Atromitos expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for OFI and 0.98 for Atromitos, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for OFI vs Atromitos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
OFI come into this having played 60 games, going 15W 22D 23L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-D-D. The sample for OFI is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Atromitos sit at 1.15 PPG from 60 outings (16W 21D 23L), a run that reads L-D-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Atromitos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.12 PPG for OFI against 1.15 for Atromitos. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
OFI's home form reads 8W 12D 9L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.24 PPG return.
Away from home, Atromitos have taken 0.72 points per game from 29 outings (4W 9D 16L). That's a step down from their 1.15 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Atromitos's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, OFI come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
OFI are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Atromitos are on 1.10 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
OFI
Blended
Atromitos
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are OFI and Atromitos in coming into this match?
OFI have gone 15W 22D 23L in their last 60 games (1.12 PPG), while Atromitos have gone 16W 21D 23L in their last 60 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — OFI at home or Atromitos away?
OFI's home record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — OFI at home: 1.24 PPG; Atromitos away: 0.72 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, OFI have gone 0W 3D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Atromitos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
OFI
6
Draws
2
Atromitos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and Atromitos?
From 10 meetings on record, OFI have won 2, Atromitos have won 2, and 6 have been drawn.
When did OFI and Atromitos last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Atromitos 1-2 OFI.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Atromitos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — OFI 52%, Atromitos 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (OFI) and 45% (Atromitos).
On the defensive side: OFI have failed to score in 31% of games; Atromitos in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = OFI home games / Atromitos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when OFI play Atromitos?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of OFI's games and 62% of Atromitos's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is OFI vs Atromitos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of OFI's recent games and 45% of Atromitos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do OFI and Atromitos tend to score early?
OFI have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Atromitos in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at OFI's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
OFI and Atromitos finished level at 0-0 at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis, Relegation Round - 2, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting OFI 1.56 xG and Atromitos 0.98 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. OFI fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Atromitos landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OFI attack 0.93 / defence 0.92 against Atromitos attack 0.79 / defence 1.02, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it OFI 48% | Draw 30% | Atromitos 22%, with OFI to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OFI 45%, Atromitos 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
OFI's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Atromitos's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — OFI 1.12 PPG, Atromitos 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. OFI (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Atromitos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.66 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.