OFI 0-0 Asteras Tripolis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates OFI at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this OFI vs Asteras Tripolis fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League 1 clash, Regular Season - 3 as OFI welcome Asteras Tripolis to Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 22 September 2021 at 16:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League 1 games this season, OFI have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. OFI have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Asteras Tripolis — All Games: 0W 1D 1L from 2 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D L. Their scoring rate of 0.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Asteras Tripolis have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
OFI carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.00 vs 0.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects OFI 1.15 xG and Asteras Tripolis 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OFI attack 1.278 / defence 1.434 | Asteras Tripolis attack 0.724 / defence 1.018. League average goals — home 0.880 / away 0.946. OFI carry an above-average attack strength of 1.278 — their λ of 1.15 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 2 OFI games / 2 Asteras Tripolis games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: OFI 39% | Draw 30% | Asteras Tripolis 31%. Fair-value odds: OFI 2.56 | Draw 3.33 | Asteras Tripolis 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates OFI as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on OFI offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.13 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: OFI vs Asteras Tripolis | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis • Kick-off: Wednesday 22 Sep 2021, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: OFI 39% | Draw 30% | Asteras Tripolis 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG OFI 1.15 / Asteras Tripolis 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: OFI attack 1.278 / def 1.434 | Asteras Tripolis attack 0.724 / def 1.018 | league avg home 0.880 / away 0.946 • Poisson stance: OFI (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
OFI xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Asteras Tripolis xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does OFI vs Asteras Tripolis kick off?
OFI vs Asteras Tripolis kicked off at 16:15 on Wednesday 22 September 2021 at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis.
What was the final score in OFI vs Asteras Tripolis?
OFI 0 - 0 Asteras Tripolis.
Where is OFI vs Asteras Tripolis being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis.
What competition is OFI vs Asteras Tripolis part of?
OFI vs Asteras Tripolis is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win OFI vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our statistical model gives OFI a 39% chance of winning, Asteras Tripolis a 31% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making OFI the favourite.
Will both teams score in OFI vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both OFI and Asteras Tripolis will score (BTTS).
Will OFI vs Asteras Tripolis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and Asteras Tripolis?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are OFI and Asteras Tripolis in?
OFI (all comps): 0W-2D-0L in 2 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D. Asteras Tripolis (all comps): 0W-1D-1L in 2 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from OFI's attack rating (1.28) and Asteras Tripolis's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.15 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Asteras Tripolis's attack versus OFI's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.6%), 1-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
OFI Win
39%
2.54
30%
3.38
31%
3.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
11.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
OFI xG
Total xG
2.13
0.98
Asteras Tripolis xG
2.54
39%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
3.22
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
37%
2.67
32%
3.15
Win to Nil
15%
6.78
10%
10.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 11.7 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 13.4 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 7.7 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for OFI vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are OFI and Asteras Tripolis expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for OFI and 0.98 for Asteras Tripolis, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for OFI vs Asteras Tripolis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
OFI come into this having played 2 games, going 0W 2D 0L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads D-D. It's still early in the season for OFI, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Asteras Tripolis sit at 0.50 PPG from 2 outings (0W 1D 1L), a run that reads D-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Asteras Tripolis, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
OFI carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Asteras Tripolis — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Goals in Recent Form
OFI are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Asteras Tripolis are on 0.00 scored and 0.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Asteras Tripolis in 0%.
Defensively: OFI have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games; Asteras Tripolis in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
OFI
Early Season
Asteras Tripolis
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are OFI and Asteras Tripolis in coming into this match?
OFI have gone 0W 2D 0L in their last 2 games (1.00 PPG), while Asteras Tripolis have gone 0W 1D 1L in their last 2 (0.50 PPG).
Have OFI or Asteras Tripolis been keeping clean sheets recently?
OFI have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Asteras Tripolis in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 11 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Jan 2026, when OFI won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
OFI's record when hosting Asteras Tripolis specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
OFI
2
Draws
6
Asteras Tripolis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and Asteras Tripolis?
From 10 meetings on record, OFI have won 2, Asteras Tripolis have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did OFI and Asteras Tripolis last play each other?
They last met on 11 January 2026, when OFI 4-0 Asteras Tripolis.
Who has won more matches between OFI and Asteras Tripolis?
Asteras Tripolis have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = OFI home games / Asteras Tripolis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when OFI play Asteras Tripolis?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of OFI's recent matches and 0% of Asteras Tripolis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is OFI vs Asteras Tripolis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of OFI's recent games and 0% of Asteras Tripolis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Stalemate at OFI's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis, Regular Season - 3, as OFI and Asteras Tripolis drew 0-0 in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting OFI 1.15 xG and Asteras Tripolis 0.98 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. OFI fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Asteras Tripolis landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OFI attack 1.28 / defence 1.43 against Asteras Tripolis attack 0.72 / defence 1.02, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it OFI 39% | Draw 30% | Asteras Tripolis 31%, with OFI to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OFI 50%, Asteras Tripolis 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 25%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, OFI arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.50. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. OFI managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.