OFI 1-1 Aris Thessalonikis – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates OFI at 46%, yet in-form Aris Thessalonikis provide a compelling counter-argument — this OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

OFI welcome Aris Thessalonikis to Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis in Super League 1 (Conference League Play-off Group - 5). Kick-off is Saturday 3 May 2025 at 19:00 UK time.

Form Guide

OFI — last 10 games: 3W 0D 7L, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).

OFI at home: 4W 1D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Aris Thessalonikis stand at 6W 3D 1L — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D W W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

When travelling, Aris Thessalonikis have posted 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Form points away from home here. Aris Thessalonikis's 2.10 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of OFI's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

H2H

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, OFI have won 2, Aris Thessalonikis 2, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 5 Apr 2025, ended OFI 0–2 Aris Thessalonikis — a Aris Thessalonikis win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

OFI in-play and half-time data (last 63 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 37%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

Aris Thessalonikis in-play and half-time data (last 63 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 24 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — OFI 52% versus Aris Thessalonikis 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (OFI 56% | Aris Thessalonikis 38%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects OFI 1.63 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OFI attack 1.122 / defence 1.190 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.968 / defence 1.146. League average goals — home 1.269 / away 1.093. Data: built from OFI's last 52 games and Aris Thessalonikis's last 52.

Result probabilities: OFI 46% | Draw 24% | Aris Thessalonikis 30%. Fair-value odds: OFI 2.17 | Draw 4.11 | Aris Thessalonikis 3.39. OFI hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is OFI at 46% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Aris Thessalonikis (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on OFI offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.89 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (OFI's last 10 home games and Aris Thessalonikis's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: OFI 40% (last 10 home games) | Aris Thessalonikis 60% (last 10 away games).

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