Levadiakos 5-2 Panserraikos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Levadiakos (73%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Levadiakos face Panserraikos.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Levadia Stadium plays host to Levadiakos versus Panserraikos in Super League 1, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Sunday 9 November 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Levadiakos have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: L W D D W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Levadiakos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Levadia Stadium, Levadiakos have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Panserraikos (all games): 1W 2D 7L across 10 Super League 1 outings this term — 0.50 points per game. Last five: D W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. This season is still relatively young for Panserraikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Panserraikos have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Levadiakos's 1.80 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of Panserraikos's 0.50 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Historically, Levadiakos have had the better of this match-up — 3 wins from 4 meetings, with Panserraikos managing just 0 victories and 1 draws shared.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 May 2025, ended 1–0 with Levadiakos winning.
The historical record gives Levadiakos a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 4 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading
Levadiakos half-time and goal-timing data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Panserraikos half-time and goal-timing data (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Levadiakos 56% versus Panserraikos 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Levadiakos 53% | Panserraikos 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Levadiakos 2.63 xG and Panserraikos 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levadiakos attack 1.393 / defence 0.872 | Panserraikos attack 0.846 / defence 1.303. League average goals — home 1.447 / away 1.246. Levadiakos carry an above-average attack strength of 1.393 — their λ of 2.63 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Panserraikos bring a strong defensive rating of 1.303 — this is suppressing Levadiakos's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 35 Levadiakos games / 35 Panserraikos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Levadiakos 73% | Draw 16% | Panserraikos 10%. Fair-value odds: Levadiakos 1.37 | Draw 6.25 | Panserraikos 10.00. The model has a clear lean to Levadiakos (73%) — a 63pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.55. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.55 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Levadiakos at 73% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.55 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates are neutral: Levadiakos 50% | Panserraikos 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Levadiakos vs Panserraikos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Levadia Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Nov 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Levadiakos 73% | Draw 16% | Panserraikos 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 56% | xG Levadiakos 2.63 / Panserraikos 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Levadiakos attack 1.393 / def 0.872 | Panserraikos attack 0.846 / def 1.303 | league avg home 1.447 / away 1.246 • Poisson stance: Levadiakos (73%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.63
Levadiakos xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Panserraikos xG
56%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Levadiakos vs Panserraikos kick off?
Levadiakos vs Panserraikos kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 9 November 2025 at Levadia Stadium.
What was the final score in Levadiakos vs Panserraikos?
Levadiakos 5 - 2 Panserraikos.
Where is Levadiakos vs Panserraikos being played?
The match is being played at Levadia Stadium.
What competition is Levadiakos vs Panserraikos part of?
Levadiakos vs Panserraikos is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Levadiakos vs Panserraikos?
Our statistical model gives Levadiakos a 73% chance of winning, Panserraikos a 10% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making Levadiakos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Levadiakos vs Panserraikos?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Levadiakos and Panserraikos will score (BTTS).
Will Levadiakos vs Panserraikos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Levadiakos and Panserraikos?
Record (4 meetings): Levadiakos 3W | Draws 1 | Panserraikos 0W.
What form are Levadiakos and Panserraikos in?
Levadiakos (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-D-W. Panserraikos (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Levadiakos's attack rating (1.39) and Panserraikos's defence rating (1.30), the model arrives at 2.63 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Panserraikos's attack (0.85x) against Levadiakos's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 3-0 (8.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Levadiakos Win
73%
1.37
16%
6.07
10%
9.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
3 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.63
Levadiakos xG
Total xG
3.55
0.92
Panserraikos xG
1.37
73%
Home win
6.07
16%
Draw
9.75
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
40%
2.51
7%
13.83
Win to Nil
29%
3.43
1%
134.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 7.6 | 7.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.1 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.7 | 8.0 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 4 | 5.7 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Levadiakos vs Panserraikos?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are Levadiakos and Panserraikos expected to score?
The model projects 2.63 expected goals for Levadiakos and 0.92 for Panserraikos, a combined total of 3.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Levadiakos vs Panserraikos?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 73%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Levadiakos's recent record stands at 17W 14D 14L from 45 games, a 1.44 PPG return, with L-W-D-D-W in the last five. The sample for Levadiakos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Panserraikos, meanwhile, have gone 11W 9D 25L across 45 games — 0.93 PPG, with D-W-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Panserraikos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Levadiakos by 0.51 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Panserraikos heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Levadiakos have managed 9W 5D 8L from 22 games — 1.45 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Panserraikos's away record stands at 4W 2D 16L across 22 trips, a 0.64 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Levadiakos come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Levadiakos are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Panserraikos are on 1.00 scored and 1.80 conceded.
Last 45 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Levadiakos
Blended
Panserraikos
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Levadiakos and Panserraikos in coming into this match?
Levadiakos have gone 17W 14D 14L in their last 45 games (1.44 PPG), while Panserraikos have gone 11W 9D 25L in their last 45 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Levadiakos at home or Panserraikos away?
Levadiakos's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Levadiakos at home: 1.45 PPG; Panserraikos away: 0.64 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 22 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Levadiakos go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Levadiakos won 3-0 on 5 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Levadiakos have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Panserraikos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Levadiakos
1
Draws
0
Panserraikos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Levadiakos and Panserraikos?
From 6 meetings on record, Levadiakos have won 5, Panserraikos have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Levadiakos and Panserraikos last play each other?
They last met on 22 December 2025, when Panserraikos 0-2 Levadiakos.
Who has won more matches between Levadiakos and Panserraikos?
Levadiakos have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Levadiakos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Panserraikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Levadiakos 54%, Panserraikos 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for Levadiakos and 64% for Panserraikos. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Levadiakos have failed to score in 27% of games; Panserraikos in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Levadiakos home games / Panserraikos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Levadiakos play Panserraikos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Levadiakos's recent matches and 50% of Panserraikos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Levadiakos vs Panserraikos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Levadiakos's matches and 64% of Panserraikos's.
Do Levadiakos and Panserraikos tend to score early?
Levadiakos have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Panserraikos in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Levadiakos run riot with a 5-2 hammering of Panserraikos.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Levadiakos beat Panserraikos 5-2 at Levadia Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Levadiakos 2.63 xG and Panserraikos 0.92 xG, a combined 3.55. The scoreboard read 5-2 for 7 actual goals. Levadiakos beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Panserraikos outscored their 0.92 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Levadiakos attack 1.39 / defence 0.87 against Panserraikos attack 0.85 / defence 1.30, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Levadiakos 73% | Draw 16% | Panserraikos 10%, with Levadiakos to win its most likely call at 73%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Levadiakos 53%, Panserraikos 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Levadiakos's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Panserraikos's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Levadiakos arrived the stronger side — 1.44 PPG against 0.93. That form edge translated into the three points. Levadiakos (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.77 average — above their attacking norm. Panserraikos (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.77 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 2.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.