Levadiakos 3-0 Panserraikos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Levadiakos at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Levadiakos vs Panserraikos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Levadias plays host to Levadiakos versus Panserraikos in Super League 1, Relegation Round - 2. Kick-off: Saturday 5 April 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Levadiakos have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W W L D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Levadiakos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Levadias, Levadiakos have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Panserraikos (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Super League 1 outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Panserraikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Panserraikos have posted 4W 0D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Levadiakos, 0 for Panserraikos and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Jan 2025, ended 1–0 with Levadiakos winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Levadiakos half-time and goal-timing data (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Panserraikos half-time and goal-timing data (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Levadiakos 59% versus Panserraikos 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Levadiakos 48% | Panserraikos 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Levadiakos 1.51 xG and Panserraikos 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levadiakos attack 0.934 / defence 1.185 | Panserraikos attack 0.921 / defence 1.278. League average goals — home 1.270 / away 1.093. Panserraikos bring a strong defensive rating of 1.278 — this is suppressing Levadiakos's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 26 Levadiakos games / 52 Panserraikos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Levadiakos 45% | Draw 25% | Panserraikos 30%. Fair-value odds: Levadiakos 2.22 | Draw 4.00 | Panserraikos 3.33. Levadiakos hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Levadiakos at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Levadiakos if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.71 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Levadiakos 60% | Panserraikos 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Levadiakos vs Panserraikos | Competition: Super League 1, Relegation Round - 2 | Venue: Stadio Levadias • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Apr 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Levadiakos 45% | Draw 25% | Panserraikos 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 54% | xG Levadiakos 1.51 / Panserraikos 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Levadiakos attack 0.934 / def 1.185 | Panserraikos attack 0.921 / def 1.278 | league avg home 1.270 / away 1.093 • Poisson stance: Levadiakos (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Levadiakos xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Panserraikos xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Levadiakos vs Panserraikos kick off?
Levadiakos vs Panserraikos kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 5 April 2025 at Stadio Levadias.
What was the final score in Levadiakos vs Panserraikos?
Levadiakos 3 - 0 Panserraikos.
Where is Levadiakos vs Panserraikos being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Levadias.
What competition is Levadiakos vs Panserraikos part of?
Levadiakos vs Panserraikos is a Relegation Round - 2 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Levadiakos vs Panserraikos?
Our statistical model gives Levadiakos a 45% chance of winning, Panserraikos a 30% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Levadiakos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Levadiakos vs Panserraikos?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Levadiakos and Panserraikos will score (BTTS).
Will Levadiakos vs Panserraikos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Levadiakos and Panserraikos?
Record (2 meetings): Levadiakos 1W | Draws 1 | Panserraikos 0W.
What form are Levadiakos and Panserraikos in?
Levadiakos (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-L-D-W. Panserraikos (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Levadiakos's attack rating (0.93) and Panserraikos's defence rating (1.28), the model arrives at 1.51 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Panserraikos's attack (0.92x) against Levadiakos's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from 26/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Levadiakos Win
45%
2.24
25%
3.94
30%
3.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Levadiakos xG
Total xG
2.71
1.19
Panserraikos xG
2.24
45%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
3.34
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
30%
3.30
22%
4.55
Win to Nil
14%
7.39
7%
15.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 8.0 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.0 | 7.2 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.1 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.6 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Levadiakos vs Panserraikos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Levadiakos and Panserraikos expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Levadiakos and 1.19 for Panserraikos, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Levadiakos vs Panserraikos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Levadiakos's recent record stands at 7W 10D 10L from 27 games, a 1.15 PPG return, with W-W-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for Levadiakos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Panserraikos, meanwhile, have gone 8W 5D 14L across 27 games — 1.07 PPG, with L-L-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Panserraikos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.15 PPG for Levadiakos against 1.07 for Panserraikos. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Levadiakos have managed 3W 4D 6L from 13 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Panserraikos's away record stands at 4W 0D 9L across 13 trips, a 0.92 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Levadiakos are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Panserraikos are on 1.15 scored and 1.78 conceded.
Last 27 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Levadiakos
Blended
Panserraikos
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Levadiakos and Panserraikos in coming into this match?
Levadiakos have gone 7W 10D 10L in their last 27 games (1.15 PPG), while Panserraikos have gone 8W 5D 14L in their last 27 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Levadiakos at home or Panserraikos away?
Levadiakos's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Levadiakos at home: 1.00 PPG; Panserraikos away: 0.92 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 22 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Levadiakos go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Levadiakos won 3-0 on 5 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Levadiakos have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Panserraikos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Levadiakos
1
Draws
0
Panserraikos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Levadiakos and Panserraikos?
From 6 meetings on record, Levadiakos have won 5, Panserraikos have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Levadiakos and Panserraikos last play each other?
They last met on 22 December 2025, when Panserraikos 0-2 Levadiakos.
Who has won more matches between Levadiakos and Panserraikos?
Levadiakos have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Levadiakos see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Panserraikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Levadiakos 54%, Panserraikos 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Levadiakos) and 69% (Panserraikos). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Levadiakos have failed to score in 38% of games; Panserraikos in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Levadiakos home games / Panserraikos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Levadiakos play Panserraikos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Levadiakos's recent matches and 54% of Panserraikos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Levadiakos vs Panserraikos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 46% of Levadiakos's matches and 69% of Panserraikos's.
Do Levadiakos and Panserraikos tend to score early?
Levadiakos have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Panserraikos in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Levadiakos run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Panserraikos.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Levadiakos beat Panserraikos 3-0 at Stadio Levadias, Relegation Round - 2, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Levadiakos 1.51 xG and Panserraikos 1.19 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Levadiakos beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Panserraikos landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Levadiakos attack 0.93 / defence 1.19 against Panserraikos attack 0.92 / defence 1.28, drawn from 26/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Levadiakos 45% | Draw 25% | Panserraikos 30%, with Levadiakos to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Levadiakos 48%, Panserraikos 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Levadiakos's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Panserraikos's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Levadiakos 1.15 PPG, Panserraikos 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Levadiakos win broke the near-deadlock. Levadiakos (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line. Panserraikos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.