Levadiakos 0-0 Lamia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Levadiakos at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Levadiakos vs Lamia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League 1 clash, Regular Season - 19 as Levadiakos welcome Lamia to Stadio Levadias. Kick-off is set for Sunday 22 January 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Levadiakos — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: D W L L D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Levadiakos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Levadiakos at Stadio Levadias this season: 2W 3D 4L from 9 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.78 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lamia stand at 0W 4D 6L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Lamia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Lamia have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Levadiakos carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 0.90 vs 0.40. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Levadiakos, 1 for Lamia and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 1 Oct 2022, ended 0–1 with Lamia winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Levadiakos in-play tendencies (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
Lamia in-play tendencies (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 22% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 61% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Levadiakos 44% versus Lamia 33%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Levadiakos 33% | Lamia 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Levadiakos 1.18 xG and Lamia 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levadiakos attack 0.742 / defence 1.196 | Lamia attack 0.670 / defence 1.336. League average goals — home 1.191 / away 0.995. Levadiakos's attack strength of 0.742 is below the league average — the 1.18 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Lamia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.336 — this is suppressing Levadiakos's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 18 Levadiakos games / 44 Lamia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Levadiakos 42% | Draw 36% | Lamia 22%. Fair-value odds: Levadiakos 2.38 | Draw 2.78 | Lamia 4.55. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 1.98. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.98 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Levadiakos at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 36% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Levadiakos offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.98 combined xG gives a 32% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Levadiakos 56% | Lamia 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Levadiakos vs Lamia | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stadio Levadias • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Jan 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Levadiakos 42% | Draw 36% | Lamia 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 41% | xG Levadiakos 1.18 / Lamia 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Levadiakos attack 0.742 / def 1.196 | Lamia attack 0.670 / def 1.336 | league avg home 1.191 / away 0.995 • Poisson stance: Levadiakos (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Levadiakos xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Lamia xG
41%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Levadiakos vs Lamia kick off?
Levadiakos vs Lamia kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 22 January 2023 at Stadio Levadias.
What was the final score in Levadiakos vs Lamia?
Levadiakos 0 - 0 Lamia.
Where is Levadiakos vs Lamia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Levadias.
What competition is Levadiakos vs Lamia part of?
Levadiakos vs Lamia is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Levadiakos vs Lamia?
Our statistical model gives Levadiakos a 42% chance of winning, Lamia a 22% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Levadiakos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Levadiakos vs Lamia?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Levadiakos and Lamia will score (BTTS).
Will Levadiakos vs Lamia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Levadiakos and Lamia?
Record (1 meetings): Levadiakos 0W | Draws 0 | Lamia 1W.
What form are Levadiakos and Lamia in?
Levadiakos (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-L-D. Lamia (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Levadiakos's attacking strength (0.74x league average) is weighed against Lamia's defensive record (1.34x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.18. The same calculation in reverse, Lamia's attack versus Levadiakos's defence, projects 0.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.7%), 1-0 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Levadiakos Win
42%
2.39
36%
2.75
22%
4.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.3%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.8%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Levadiakos xG
Total xG
1.98
0.80
Lamia xG
2.39
42%
Home win
2.75
36%
Draw
4.59
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.43
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
45%
2.22
31%
3.26
Win to Nil
19%
5.31
7%
14.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.8 | 11.0 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.3 | 13.0 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.6 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Levadiakos vs Lamia?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.5%.
How many goals are Levadiakos and Lamia expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Levadiakos and 0.80 for Lamia, a combined total of 1.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Levadiakos vs Lamia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Levadiakos come into this having played 18 games, going 2W 6D 10L for 0.67 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-L-D. The sample for Levadiakos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Lamia sit at 0.61 PPG from 18 outings (1W 8D 9L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Lamia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Levadiakos on 0.67 PPG, Lamia on 0.61. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Levadiakos's home form reads 2W 3D 4L across 9 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Lamia have taken 0.44 points per game from 9 outings (0W 4D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Levadiakos come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Levadiakos are averaging 0.56 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Lamia are on 0.44 scored and 1.72 conceded.
Last 18 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Levadiakos
Blended
Lamia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Levadiakos and Lamia in coming into this match?
Levadiakos have gone 2W 6D 10L in their last 18 games (0.67 PPG), while Lamia have gone 1W 8D 9L in their last 18 (0.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Levadiakos at home or Lamia away?
Levadiakos's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Levadiakos at home: 1.00 PPG; Lamia away: 0.44 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 May 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Levadiakos's record when hosting Lamia specifically: 0W 3D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Levadiakos
4
Draws
1
Lamia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Levadiakos and Lamia?
From 7 meetings on record, Levadiakos have won 2, Lamia have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Levadiakos and Lamia last play each other?
They last met on 5 May 2025, when Lamia 2-3 Levadiakos.
Who has won more matches between Levadiakos and Lamia?
Levadiakos have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Levadiakos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Lamia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Levadiakos 56%, Lamia 22% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 22% for Levadiakos and 33% for Lamia.
On the defensive side: Levadiakos have failed to score in 33% of games; Lamia in 78%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Levadiakos home games / Lamia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Levadiakos play Lamia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Levadiakos's recent matches and 22% of Lamia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Levadiakos vs Lamia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 22% of Levadiakos's recent games and 33% of Lamia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Levadiakos and Lamia tend to score early?
Levadiakos have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Lamia in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Levadiakos's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Levadias, Regular Season - 19, as Levadiakos and Lamia drew 0-0 in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Levadiakos 1.18 xG and Lamia 0.80 xG, a combined 1.98. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Levadiakos fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Levadiakos attack 0.74 / defence 1.20 against Lamia attack 0.67 / defence 1.34, drawn from 18/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Levadiakos 42% | Draw 36% | Lamia 22%, with Levadiakos to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Levadiakos 33%, Lamia 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Levadiakos's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Lamia's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 61% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Levadiakos 0.67 PPG, Lamia 0.61 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Levadiakos (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line. Lamia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.78 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.