Levadiakos 1-1 Atromitos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 40% as Levadiakos take on Atromitos.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League 1 clash, Relegation Round - 2 as Levadiakos welcome Atromitos to Stadio Levadias. Kick-off is set for Saturday 1 April 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Levadiakos have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L D L W D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Levadiakos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Levadiakos's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Stadio Levadias this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Levadiakos are significantly better at Stadio Levadias than their overall form suggests.
Atromitos — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Atromitos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Atromitos have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.70 PPG (Levadiakos) versus 1.00 (Atromitos). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Levadiakos, 1 for Atromitos and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Feb 2023, ended 0–1 with Atromitos winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Levadiakos in-play and half-time data (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 23% of games (home games); they fail to score in 56% of games.
Atromitos in-play and half-time data (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Levadiakos 37% versus Atromitos 48%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Levadiakos 37% | Atromitos 26%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Levadiakos 0.93 xG and Atromitos 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levadiakos attack 0.679 / defence 1.047 | Atromitos attack 0.909 / defence 1.101. League average goals — home 1.246 / away 0.998. Levadiakos's attack strength of 0.679 is below the league average — the 0.93 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 26 Levadiakos games / 52 Atromitos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Levadiakos 29% | Draw 40% | Atromitos 30%. Fair-value odds: Levadiakos 3.45 | Draw 2.50 | Atromitos 3.33. The draw (40%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 1.88. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.88 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 40% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 29% and away win at 30% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.88 combined xG gives a 29% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Levadiakos 30% | Atromitos 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Levadiakos vs Atromitos | Competition: Super League 1, Relegation Round - 2 | Venue: Stadio Levadias • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Apr 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Levadiakos 29% | Draw 40% | Atromitos 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 41% | xG Levadiakos 0.93 / Atromitos 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Levadiakos attack 0.679 / def 1.047 | Atromitos attack 0.909 / def 1.101 | league avg home 1.246 / away 0.998 • Poisson stance: Draw (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Levadiakos xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Atromitos xG
41%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Levadiakos vs Atromitos kick off?
Levadiakos vs Atromitos kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 1 April 2023 at Stadio Levadias.
What was the final score in Levadiakos vs Atromitos?
Levadiakos 1 - 1 Atromitos.
Where is Levadiakos vs Atromitos being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Levadias.
What competition is Levadiakos vs Atromitos part of?
Levadiakos vs Atromitos is a Relegation Round - 2 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Levadiakos vs Atromitos?
Our statistical model gives Levadiakos a 29% chance of winning, Atromitos a 30% chance, and a 40% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Levadiakos vs Atromitos?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Levadiakos and Atromitos will score (BTTS).
Will Levadiakos vs Atromitos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Levadiakos and Atromitos?
Record (2 meetings): Levadiakos 1W | Draws 0 | Atromitos 1W.
What form are Levadiakos and Atromitos in?
Levadiakos (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-W-D. Atromitos (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Levadiakos's attacking strength (0.68x league average) is weighed against Atromitos's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.93. The same calculation in reverse, Atromitos's attack versus Levadiakos's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 17.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
29%
3.40
40%
2.49
30%
3.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
14.5%
Away win
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Levadiakos xG
Total xG
1.88
0.95
Atromitos xG
3.40
29%
Home win
2.49
40%
Draw
3.28
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.43
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
39%
2.54
Win to Nil
11%
8.78
12%
8.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.2 | 14.5 | 6.9 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.2 | 13.5 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Levadiakos vs Atromitos?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.0%.
How many goals are Levadiakos and Atromitos expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Levadiakos and 0.95 for Atromitos, a combined total of 1.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Levadiakos vs Atromitos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 27 outings, Levadiakos have picked up 0.67 PPG on a 3W 9D 15L record — L-D-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Levadiakos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Atromitos's form line: 8W 8D 11L from 27 games, 1.19 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-W. The sample for Atromitos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Atromitos are the form team by 0.52 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Levadiakos.
Venue Form
On home soil, Levadiakos have posted 1.08 PPG from 13 outings (3W 5D 5L). That's noticeably better than their 0.67 PPG overall — Levadiakos are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Atromitos have gone 2W 3D 8L from 13 away games — 0.69 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.19 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Atromitos's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Levadiakos are averaging 0.56 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Atromitos are on 1.00 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Last 27 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Levadiakos
Blended
Atromitos
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Levadiakos and Atromitos in coming into this match?
Levadiakos have gone 3W 9D 15L in their last 27 games (0.67 PPG), while Atromitos have gone 8W 8D 11L in their last 27 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Levadiakos at home or Atromitos away?
Levadiakos's home record (1.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Levadiakos at home: 1.08 PPG; Atromitos away: 0.69 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Levadiakos's record when hosting Atromitos specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Levadiakos
2
Draws
3
Atromitos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Levadiakos and Atromitos?
From 7 meetings on record, Levadiakos have won 2, Atromitos have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Levadiakos and Atromitos last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Levadiakos 1-0 Atromitos.
Who has won more matches between Levadiakos and Atromitos?
Atromitos have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Levadiakos see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Atromitos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Levadiakos 38%, Atromitos 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 23% for Levadiakos and 38% for Atromitos.
On the defensive side: Levadiakos keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Levadiakos have failed to score in 46% of games; Atromitos in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Levadiakos home games / Atromitos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Levadiakos play Atromitos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Levadiakos's recent matches and 62% of Atromitos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Levadiakos vs Atromitos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 23% of Levadiakos's recent games and 38% of Atromitos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Levadiakos and Atromitos tend to score early?
Levadiakos have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Atromitos in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Levadiakos and Atromitos share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Levadiakos and Atromitos finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Levadias, Relegation Round - 2, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Levadiakos 0.93 xG and Atromitos 0.95 xG, a combined 1.88. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Levadiakos attack 0.68 / defence 1.05 against Atromitos attack 0.91 / defence 1.10, drawn from 26/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Levadiakos 29% | Draw 40% | Atromitos 30%, with the draw its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 31% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Levadiakos 37%, Atromitos 26%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Levadiakos's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did.
Atromitos's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Atromitos arrived the stronger side — 1.19 PPG against 0.67. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.