Levadiakos 1-1 Asteras Tripolis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Asteras Tripolis at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Levadiakos vs Asteras Tripolis fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Levadiakos and Asteras Tripolis meet at Stadio Levadias in Super League 1, Regular Season - 5. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 18 September 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Levadiakos's overall Super League 1 record this term: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games (0.25 PPG). Last five: L D L L. They are averaging 0.25 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 25% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Levadiakos have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Asteras Tripolis have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 0W 6D 4L. Last five: D D D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Asteras Tripolis have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Asteras Tripolis have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.20 exceeds their overall 0.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.25 vs 0.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using overall form) — Levadiakos have seen both teams score in just 25% of their matches, Asteras Tripolis in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
Trading & In-Play
Levadiakos — key trading statistics (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they fail to score in 75% of games.
Asteras Tripolis — key trading statistics (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 75% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Levadiakos 25% | Asteras Tripolis 25%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Levadiakos 50% | Asteras Tripolis 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Levadiakos 1.09 xG and Asteras Tripolis 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levadiakos attack 0.856 / defence 1.150 | Asteras Tripolis attack 1.050 / defence 1.131. League average goals — home 1.124 / away 1.002. Data: 4 Levadiakos games / 30 Asteras Tripolis games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Levadiakos 30% | Draw 33% | Asteras Tripolis 36%. Fair-value odds: Levadiakos 3.33 | Draw 3.03 | Asteras Tripolis 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Asteras Tripolis are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Asteras Tripolis if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.30 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates corroborate: Levadiakos 25% | Asteras Tripolis 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Levadiakos vs Asteras Tripolis | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stadio Levadias • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Sep 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Levadiakos 30% | Draw 33% | Asteras Tripolis 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 49% | xG Levadiakos 1.09 / Asteras Tripolis 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Levadiakos attack 0.856 / def 1.150 | Asteras Tripolis attack 1.050 / def 1.131 | league avg home 1.124 / away 1.002 • Poisson stance: Asteras Tripolis (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Levadiakos xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Asteras Tripolis xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Levadiakos vs Asteras Tripolis kick off?
Levadiakos vs Asteras Tripolis kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 18 September 2022 at Stadio Levadias.
What was the final score in Levadiakos vs Asteras Tripolis?
Levadiakos 1 - 1 Asteras Tripolis.
Where is Levadiakos vs Asteras Tripolis being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Levadias.
What competition is Levadiakos vs Asteras Tripolis part of?
Levadiakos vs Asteras Tripolis is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Levadiakos vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our statistical model gives Levadiakos a 30% chance of winning, Asteras Tripolis a 36% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Asteras Tripolis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Levadiakos vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Levadiakos and Asteras Tripolis will score (BTTS).
Will Levadiakos vs Asteras Tripolis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Levadiakos and Asteras Tripolis?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Levadiakos and Asteras Tripolis in?
Levadiakos (all comps): 0W-1D-3L in 4 | 0.25 PPG | GF 0.25 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-L. Asteras Tripolis (all comps): 0W-6D-4L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Levadiakos's attack rating (0.86) and Asteras Tripolis's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.09 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Asteras Tripolis's attack (1.05x) against Levadiakos's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from 4/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.8%), 0-1 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Asteras Tripolis Win
30%
3.29
33%
3.01
36%
2.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.2%
Away win
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Levadiakos xG
Total xG
2.30
1.21
Asteras Tripolis xG
3.29
30%
Home win
3.01
33%
Draw
2.74
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
30%
3.35
34%
2.97
Win to Nil
9%
11.05
12%
8.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 12.2 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 13.2 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.2 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Levadiakos vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Levadiakos and Asteras Tripolis expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Levadiakos and 1.21 for Asteras Tripolis, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Levadiakos vs Asteras Tripolis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Levadiakos come into this having played 4 games, going 0W 1D 3L for 0.25 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L. It's still early in the season for Levadiakos, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Asteras Tripolis sit at 0.75 PPG from 4 outings (0W 3D 1L), a run that reads D-D-D-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Asteras Tripolis, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Asteras Tripolis carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Levadiakos — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Attack vs Defence
Levadiakos are averaging 0.25 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Asteras Tripolis are on 0.75 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Levadiakos have seen both teams score in 25% of their recent games; Asteras Tripolis in 25%.
Defensively: Asteras Tripolis in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Levadiakos
Early Season
Asteras Tripolis
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Levadiakos and Asteras Tripolis in coming into this match?
Levadiakos have gone 0W 1D 3L in their last 4 games (0.25 PPG), while Asteras Tripolis have gone 0W 3D 1L in their last 4 (0.75 PPG).
Have Levadiakos or Asteras Tripolis been keeping clean sheets recently?
Levadiakos have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Asteras Tripolis in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Levadiakos have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Asteras Tripolis — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Levadiakos
4
Draws
1
Asteras Tripolis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Levadiakos and Asteras Tripolis?
From 7 meetings on record, Levadiakos have won 2, Asteras Tripolis have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Levadiakos and Asteras Tripolis last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when Levadiakos 3-1 Asteras Tripolis.
Who has won more matches between Levadiakos and Asteras Tripolis?
Levadiakos have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Levadiakos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Asteras Tripolis see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 25% (Levadiakos) and 25% (Asteras Tripolis) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Levadiakos) and 25% (Asteras Tripolis).
On the defensive side: Asteras Tripolis in 50%; Levadiakos have failed to score in 75% of games; Asteras Tripolis in 75%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Levadiakos home games / Asteras Tripolis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Levadiakos play Asteras Tripolis?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Levadiakos's recent matches and 25% of Asteras Tripolis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Levadiakos vs Asteras Tripolis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Levadiakos's recent games and 25% of Asteras Tripolis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Levadiakos and Asteras Tripolis tend to score early?
Levadiakos have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Asteras Tripolis in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Levadiakos and Asteras Tripolis share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Levadiakos and Asteras Tripolis finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Levadias, Regular Season - 5, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Levadiakos 1.09 xG and Asteras Tripolis 1.21 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Levadiakos attack 0.86 / defence 1.15 against Asteras Tripolis attack 1.05 / defence 1.13, drawn from 4/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Levadiakos 30% | Draw 33% | Asteras Tripolis 36%, with Asteras Tripolis to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Levadiakos 50%, Asteras Tripolis 25%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 25%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Levadiakos's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did.
Asteras Tripolis's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Asteras Tripolis arrived the stronger side — 0.75 PPG against 0.25. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.