Levadiakos 1-1 Aris Thessalonikis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Levadiakos at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Levadiakos vs Aris Thessalonikis fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Levadia Stadium plays host to Levadiakos versus Aris Thessalonikis in Super League 1, Conference League Group - 1. Kick-off: Sunday 5 April 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Levadiakos (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Super League 1 fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Levadiakos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Levadiakos's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Levadia Stadium this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Levadiakos are significantly better at Levadia Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Aris Thessalonikis's overall Super League 1 record this term: 1W 6D 3L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: D L D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Aris Thessalonikis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Aris Thessalonikis have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Levadiakos, 0.90 for Aris Thessalonikis — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 6 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Levadiakos, 2 for Aris Thessalonikis and 3 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.3 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 25 Jan 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Levadiakos goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Aris Thessalonikis goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Levadiakos 59% versus Aris Thessalonikis 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Levadiakos 59% | Aris Thessalonikis 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Levadiakos 1.61 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levadiakos attack 1.313 / defence 1.082 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.789 / defence 0.940. League average goals — home 1.305 / away 1.063. Levadiakos carry an above-average attack strength of 1.313 — their λ of 1.61 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 52 Levadiakos games / 52 Aris Thessalonikis games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Levadiakos 52% | Draw 29% | Aris Thessalonikis 19%. Fair-value odds: Levadiakos 1.92 | Draw 3.45 | Aris Thessalonikis 5.26. Levadiakos hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Levadiakos as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Levadiakos if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.52 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates are neutral: Levadiakos 60% | Aris Thessalonikis 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Levadiakos vs Aris Thessalonikis | Competition: Super League 1, Conference League Group - 1 | Venue: Levadia Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Apr 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Levadiakos 52% | Draw 29% | Aris Thessalonikis 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 50% | xG Levadiakos 1.61 / Aris Thessalonikis 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Levadiakos attack 1.313 / def 1.082 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.789 / def 0.940 | league avg home 1.305 / away 1.063 • Poisson stance: Levadiakos (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Levadiakos xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Aris Thessalonikis xG
50%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Levadiakos vs Aris Thessalonikis kick off?
Levadiakos vs Aris Thessalonikis kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 5 April 2026 at Levadia Stadium.
What was the final score in Levadiakos vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Levadiakos 1 - 1 Aris Thessalonikis.
Where is Levadiakos vs Aris Thessalonikis being played?
The match is being played at Levadia Stadium.
What competition is Levadiakos vs Aris Thessalonikis part of?
Levadiakos vs Aris Thessalonikis is a Conference League Group - 1 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Levadiakos vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our statistical model gives Levadiakos a 52% chance of winning, Aris Thessalonikis a 19% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Levadiakos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Levadiakos vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Levadiakos and Aris Thessalonikis will score (BTTS).
Will Levadiakos vs Aris Thessalonikis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Levadiakos and Aris Thessalonikis?
Record (6 meetings): Levadiakos 1W | Draws 3 | Aris Thessalonikis 2W.
What form are Levadiakos and Aris Thessalonikis in?
Levadiakos (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Aris Thessalonikis (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Levadiakos's attack at 1.31x the league average against Aris Thessalonikis's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.61 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Aris Thessalonikis's attack (0.79x) against Levadiakos's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.4%), 2-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Levadiakos Win
52%
1.92
29%
3.49
19%
5.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Levadiakos xG
Total xG
2.52
0.91
Aris Thessalonikis xG
1.92
52%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
5.18
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
40%
2.48
20%
5.01
Win to Nil
21%
4.77
4%
25.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 7.3 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.0 | 11.8 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.5 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Levadiakos vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Levadiakos and Aris Thessalonikis expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Levadiakos and 0.91 for Aris Thessalonikis, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Levadiakos vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Levadiakos come into this having played 58 games, going 25W 15D 18L for 1.55 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-W. The sample for Levadiakos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Aris Thessalonikis sit at 1.48 PPG from 58 outings (22W 20D 16L), a run that reads D-L-D-D-L across their last five. The sample for Aris Thessalonikis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.55 PPG for Levadiakos against 1.48 for Aris Thessalonikis. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Levadiakos's home form reads 14W 6D 9L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.66 PPG return.
Away from home, Aris Thessalonikis have taken 1.21 points per game from 29 outings (9W 8D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Levadiakos come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Levadiakos are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Aris Thessalonikis are on 1.07 scored and 1.02 conceded.
Defensively: Aris Thessalonikis in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Levadiakos
Blended
Aris Thessalonikis
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Levadiakos and Aris Thessalonikis in coming into this match?
Levadiakos have gone 25W 15D 18L in their last 58 games (1.55 PPG), while Aris Thessalonikis have gone 22W 20D 16L in their last 58 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Levadiakos at home or Aris Thessalonikis away?
Levadiakos's home record (1.66 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Levadiakos at home: 1.66 PPG; Aris Thessalonikis away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Levadiakos or Aris Thessalonikis been keeping clean sheets recently?
Levadiakos have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Aris Thessalonikis in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 17 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Aris Thessalonikis won 3-0 on 21 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Levadiakos have gone 1W 3D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Aris Thessalonikis — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Levadiakos
4
Draws
3
Aris Thessalonikis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Levadiakos and Aris Thessalonikis?
From 8 meetings on record, Levadiakos have won 1, Aris Thessalonikis have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Levadiakos and Aris Thessalonikis last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Aris Thessalonikis 3-0 Levadiakos.
Who has won more matches between Levadiakos and Aris Thessalonikis?
Aris Thessalonikis have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Levadiakos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Aris Thessalonikis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Levadiakos 59%, Aris Thessalonikis 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Levadiakos) and 38% (Aris Thessalonikis).
On the defensive side: Aris Thessalonikis in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Levadiakos home games / Aris Thessalonikis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Levadiakos play Aris Thessalonikis?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Levadiakos's games and 55% of Aris Thessalonikis's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Levadiakos vs Aris Thessalonikis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Levadiakos's recent games and 38% of Aris Thessalonikis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Levadiakos and Aris Thessalonikis tend to score early?
Levadiakos have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Aris Thessalonikis in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Levadiakos and Aris Thessalonikis share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Levadiakos and Aris Thessalonikis finished level at 1-1 at Levadia Stadium, Conference League Group - 1, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Levadiakos 1.61 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 0.91 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Levadiakos attack 1.31 / defence 1.08 against Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.79 / defence 0.94, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Levadiakos 52% | Draw 29% | Aris Thessalonikis 19%, with Levadiakos to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Levadiakos 59%, Aris Thessalonikis 31%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Levadiakos's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Levadiakos 1.55 PPG, Aris Thessalonikis 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Levadiakos (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.97 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.