Levadiakos 0-3 AEK Athens FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates AEK Athens FC at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Levadiakos vs AEK Athens FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
AEK Athens FC make the trip to Stadio Levadias to face Levadiakos in Super League 1, Regular Season - 3. The match kicks off on Sunday 1 September 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Levadiakos have collected 0.50 PPG across 2 Super League 1 outings this season: 0W 1D 1L. Last five: D L. They are averaging 0.00 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Levadiakos have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
AEK Athens FC (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Super League 1 outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: L L W W D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. AEK Athens FC have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
AEK Athens FC's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. AEK Athens FC are 1.20 PPG clear of Levadiakos in recent Super League 1 fixtures (1.70 vs 0.50). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Levadiakos lead 0W to 2W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Feb 2023, ended 0–3 with AEK Athens FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Levadiakos 0.85 xG and AEK Athens FC 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levadiakos attack 0.702 / defence 1.006 | AEK Athens FC attack 1.126 / defence 1.007. League average goals — home 1.205 / away 1.117. Levadiakos's attack strength of 0.702 is below the league average — the 0.85 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 2 Levadiakos games / 28 AEK Athens FC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Levadiakos 24% | Draw 31% | AEK Athens FC 45%. Fair-value odds: Levadiakos 4.17 | Draw 3.23 | AEK Athens FC 2.22. AEK Athens FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.12 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AEK Athens FC at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AEK Athens FC if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.12 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Levadiakos vs AEK Athens FC | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stadio Levadias • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Sep 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Levadiakos 24% | Draw 31% | AEK Athens FC 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG Levadiakos 0.85 / AEK Athens FC 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Levadiakos attack 0.702 / def 1.006 | AEK Athens FC attack 1.126 / def 1.007 | league avg home 1.205 / away 1.117 • Poisson stance: AEK Athens FC (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.85
Levadiakos xG
Expected Goals
1.26
AEK Athens FC xG
42%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Levadiakos vs AEK Athens FC kick off?
Levadiakos vs AEK Athens FC kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 1 September 2024 at Stadio Levadias.
What was the final score in Levadiakos vs AEK Athens FC?
Levadiakos 0 - 3 AEK Athens FC.
Where is Levadiakos vs AEK Athens FC being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Levadias.
What competition is Levadiakos vs AEK Athens FC part of?
Levadiakos vs AEK Athens FC is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Levadiakos vs AEK Athens FC?
Our statistical model gives Levadiakos a 24% chance of winning, AEK Athens FC a 45% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making AEK Athens FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Levadiakos vs AEK Athens FC?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Levadiakos and AEK Athens FC will score (BTTS).
Will Levadiakos vs AEK Athens FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Levadiakos and AEK Athens FC?
Record (2 meetings): Levadiakos 0W | Draws 0 | AEK Athens FC 2W.
What form are Levadiakos and AEK Athens FC in?
Levadiakos (all comps): 0W-1D-1L in 2 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-L. AEK Athens FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Levadiakos's attack at 0.70x the league average against AEK Athens FC's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 0.85 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — AEK Athens FC's attack (1.13x) against Levadiakos's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
The sample (2/28 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.7%), 0-1 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AEK Athens FC Win
24%
4.13
31%
3.26
45%
2.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.85
Levadiakos xG
Total xG
2.12
1.26
AEK Athens FC xG
4.13
24%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
2.21
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
28%
3.54
43%
2.34
Win to Nil
7%
14.65
19%
5.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 15.2 | 9.6 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 13.0 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 5.5 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Levadiakos vs AEK Athens FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Levadiakos and AEK Athens FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.85 expected goals for Levadiakos and 1.26 for AEK Athens FC, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Levadiakos vs AEK Athens FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 2 outings, Levadiakos have picked up 0.50 PPG on a 0W 1D 1L record — D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Levadiakos, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
AEK Athens FC's form line: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games, 2.00 PPG, last five W-D. It's still early in the season for AEK Athens FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, AEK Athens FC are the form team by 1.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Levadiakos.
Attack vs Defence
Levadiakos are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game recently; AEK Athens FC are on 2.00 scored and 0.50 conceded. AEK Athens FC's attacking output running into Levadiakos's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Levadiakos have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games.
Defensively: Levadiakos have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games; AEK Athens FC in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Levadiakos
Early Season
AEK Athens FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Levadiakos and AEK Athens FC in coming into this match?
Levadiakos have gone 0W 1D 1L in their last 2 games (0.50 PPG), while AEK Athens FC have gone 1W 1D 0L in their last 2 (2.00 PPG).
Have Levadiakos or AEK Athens FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Levadiakos have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, AEK Athens FC in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: AEK Athens FC have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AEK Athens FC won 4-0 on 22 Feb 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Levadiakos have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 meetings on their own ground against AEK Athens FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Levadiakos
1
Draws
5
AEK Athens FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Levadiakos and AEK Athens FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Levadiakos have won 0, AEK Athens FC have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Levadiakos and AEK Athens FC last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when AEK Athens FC 4-0 Levadiakos.
Who has won more matches between Levadiakos and AEK Athens FC?
AEK Athens FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Levadiakos home games / AEK Athens FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Levadiakos play AEK Athens FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Levadiakos's recent matches and 50% of AEK Athens FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Levadiakos vs AEK Athens FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Levadiakos's recent games and 50% of AEK Athens FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Levadiakos and AEK Athens FC tend to score early?
Levadiakos have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, AEK Athens FC in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant AEK Athens FC run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Levadiakos.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AEK Athens FC beat Levadiakos 0-3 at Stadio Levadias, Regular Season - 3, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Levadiakos 0.85 xG and AEK Athens FC 1.26 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Levadiakos fell 0.9 short of their projected output. AEK Athens FC outscored their 1.26 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Levadiakos attack 0.70 / defence 1.01 against AEK Athens FC attack 1.13 / defence 1.01, drawn from 2/28 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Levadiakos 24% | Draw 31% | AEK Athens FC 45%, with AEK Athens FC to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Levadiakos 0%, AEK Athens FC 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 25%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, AEK Athens FC arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.50. Form held, and they took the win. Levadiakos shipped 3 against a 0.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. AEK Athens FC scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.