Lamia 2-2 Volos NFC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Volos NFC at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lamia vs Volos NFC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias plays host to Lamia versus Volos NFC in Super League 1, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Wednesday 15 December 2021 at 15:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Lamia have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Lamia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lamia's form when playing at home: 0W 2D 4L across 6 games at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias this term (0.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.33 lags behind their overall 1.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias this season.
Volos NFC's overall Super League 1 record this term: 1W 2D 7L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Volos NFC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Volos NFC's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 3L across 6 road games this term (0.83 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Lamia's favour (1.00 vs 0.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Lamia have seen both teams score in 67% of their games, Volos NFC in 100%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading Data
Lamia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Volos NFC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lamia 54% and Volos NFC 85% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Lamia 54% | Volos NFC 85%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lamia 1.49 xG and Volos NFC 2.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamia attack 0.809 / defence 1.426 | Volos NFC attack 1.177 / defence 1.686. League average goals — home 1.089 / away 1.214. Volos NFC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.686 — this is suppressing Lamia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 13 Lamia games / 13 Volos NFC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lamia 28% | Draw 21% | Volos NFC 50%. Fair-value odds: Lamia 3.57 | Draw 4.76 | Volos NFC 2.00. Volos NFC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.52. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.52 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.49 / 2.04) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Volos NFC as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Lamia (1.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.52 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 68% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Lamia 67% | Volos NFC 100% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lamia vs Volos NFC | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias • Kick-off: Wednesday 15 Dec 2021, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lamia 28% | Draw 21% | Volos NFC 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 67% | xG Lamia 1.49 / Volos NFC 2.04 • Poisson strength factors: Lamia attack 0.809 / def 1.426 | Volos NFC attack 1.177 / def 1.686 | league avg home 1.089 / away 1.214 • Poisson stance: Volos NFC (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Lamia xG
Expected Goals
2.04
Volos NFC xG
67%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lamia vs Volos NFC kick off?
Lamia vs Volos NFC kicked off at 15:15 on Wednesday 15 December 2021 at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias.
What was the final score in Lamia vs Volos NFC?
Lamia 2 - 2 Volos NFC.
Where is Lamia vs Volos NFC being played?
The match is being played at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias.
What competition is Lamia vs Volos NFC part of?
Lamia vs Volos NFC is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Lamia vs Volos NFC?
Our statistical model gives Lamia a 28% chance of winning, Volos NFC a 50% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Volos NFC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lamia vs Volos NFC?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Lamia and Volos NFC will score (BTTS).
Will Lamia vs Volos NFC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lamia and Volos NFC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lamia and Volos NFC in?
Lamia (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-L-L. Volos NFC (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Lamia's attack rating (0.81) and Volos NFC's defence rating (1.69), the model arrives at 1.49 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Volos NFC's attack (1.18x) against Lamia's defence (1.43x) — and the away total comes out at 2.04.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-2 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Volos NFC Win
28%
3.55
21%
4.67
50%
1.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.9%
Draw
2 – 2
6.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Lamia xG
Total xG
3.52
2.04
Volos NFC xG
3.55
28%
Home win
4.67
21%
Draw
1.98
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.06
Clean Sheet
13%
7.66
23%
4.42
Win to Nil
4%
27.20
11%
8.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 6.0 | 6.1 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 4.4 | 8.9 | 9.1 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 6.6 | 6.8 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lamia vs Volos NFC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are Lamia and Volos NFC expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Lamia and 2.04 for Volos NFC, a combined total of 3.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Lamia vs Volos NFC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Lamia's recent record stands at 2W 4D 7L from 13 games, a 0.77 PPG return, with W-L-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Lamia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Volos NFC, meanwhile, have gone 4W 2D 7L across 13 games — 1.08 PPG, with L-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Volos NFC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.77 PPG for Lamia against 1.08 for Volos NFC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Lamia have managed 0W 2D 4L from 6 games — 0.33 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 0.77 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Volos NFC's away record stands at 1W 2D 3L across 6 trips, a 0.83 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Volos NFC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Lamia are averaging 0.85 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Volos NFC are on 1.69 scored and 2.08 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Volos NFC in 85%.
Last 13 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lamia
Blended
Volos NFC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lamia and Volos NFC in coming into this match?
Lamia have gone 2W 4D 7L in their last 13 games (0.77 PPG), while Volos NFC have gone 4W 2D 7L in their last 13 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lamia at home or Volos NFC away?
Volos NFC's away record (0.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lamia at home: 0.33 PPG; Volos NFC away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Volos NFC go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Volos NFC won 3-0 on 9 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lamia have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Volos NFC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Lamia
5
Draws
4
Volos NFC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lamia and Volos NFC?
From 10 meetings on record, Lamia have won 1, Volos NFC have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Lamia and Volos NFC last play each other?
They last met on 14 May 2025, when Volos NFC 3-0 Lamia.
Who has won more matches between Lamia and Volos NFC?
Volos NFC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Lamia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Volos NFC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Lamia, 100% for Volos NFC — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Lamia and 83% for Volos NFC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lamia have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lamia home games / Volos NFC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lamia play Volos NFC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Lamia's games and 100% of Volos NFC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lamia vs Volos NFC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Lamia's matches and 83% of Volos NFC's.
Do Lamia and Volos NFC tend to score early?
Lamia have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Volos NFC in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lamia and Volos NFC share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lamia and Volos NFC finished level at 2-2 at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias, Regular Season - 14, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamia 1.49 xG and Volos NFC 2.04 xG, a combined 3.52. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamia attack 0.81 / defence 1.43 against Volos NFC attack 1.18 / defence 1.69, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lamia 28% | Draw 21% | Volos NFC 50%, with Volos NFC to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamia 54%, Volos NFC 85%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lamia's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Volos NFC's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 85% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lamia 0.77 PPG, Volos NFC 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Lamia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.