Lamia 0-3 PAOK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours PAOK (48%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Lamia face PAOK.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League 1 clash, Regular Season - 17 as Lamia welcome PAOK to Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias. Kick-off is set for Saturday 7 January 2023 at 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Lamia have gone 0W 4D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.40 PPG return. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Lamia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Lamia have posted 1W 5D 4L at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
PAOK — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for PAOK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, PAOK have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. PAOK are 1.70 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 0.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The previous 3 encounters between these sides heavily favour PAOK, who boast 3 victories compared to 0 for Lamia.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Sep 2022, ended 0–1 with PAOK winning.
It is worth noting that PAOK have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 3 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Data
Lamia trading profile (51 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 53% of games.
PAOK trading profile (51 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lamia 41% versus PAOK 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lamia 43% | PAOK 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lamia 0.84 xG and PAOK 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamia attack 0.856 / defence 1.226 | PAOK attack 1.194 / defence 0.792. League average goals — home 1.237 / away 1.002. PAOK's defence strength of 0.792 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 42 Lamia games / 42 PAOK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lamia 18% | Draw 34% | PAOK 48%. Fair-value odds: Lamia 5.56 | Draw 2.94 | PAOK 2.08. PAOK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (34%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates PAOK as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on PAOK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.31 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates corroborate: Lamia 40% | PAOK 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lamia vs PAOK | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Jan 2023, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lamia 18% | Draw 34% | PAOK 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Lamia 0.84 / PAOK 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Lamia attack 0.856 / def 1.226 | PAOK attack 1.194 / def 0.792 | league avg home 1.237 / away 1.002 • Poisson stance: PAOK (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.84
Lamia xG
Expected Goals
1.47
PAOK xG
47%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lamia vs PAOK kick off?
Lamia vs PAOK kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 7 January 2023 at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias.
What was the final score in Lamia vs PAOK?
Lamia 0 - 3 PAOK.
Where is Lamia vs PAOK being played?
The match is being played at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias.
What competition is Lamia vs PAOK part of?
Lamia vs PAOK is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Lamia vs PAOK?
Our statistical model gives Lamia a 18% chance of winning, PAOK a 48% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making PAOK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lamia vs PAOK?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Lamia and PAOK will score (BTTS).
Will Lamia vs PAOK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lamia and PAOK?
Record (3 meetings): Lamia 0W | Draws 0 | PAOK 3W.
What form are Lamia and PAOK in?
Lamia (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. PAOK (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Lamia's attack at 0.86x the league average against PAOK's defence at 0.79x — combine the two and it projects 0.84 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, PAOK's attack versus Lamia's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (13.0%), 0-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAOK Win
18%
5.61
34%
2.95
48%
2.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
0 – 2
10.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.84
Lamia xG
Total xG
2.31
1.47
PAOK xG
5.61
18%
Home win
2.95
34%
Draw
2.07
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
23%
4.34
43%
2.31
Win to Nil
4%
24.35
21%
4.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 14.6 | 10.7 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.3 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 5.1 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lamia vs PAOK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Lamia and PAOK expected to score?
The model projects 0.84 expected goals for Lamia and 1.47 for PAOK, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Lamia vs PAOK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 51 outings, Lamia have picked up 0.78 PPG on a 8W 16D 27L record — L-L-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Lamia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
PAOK's form line: 28W 12D 11L from 51 games, 1.88 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-W. The sample for PAOK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, PAOK are the form team by 1.10 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Lamia.
Venue Form
On home soil, Lamia have posted 0.71 PPG from 24 outings (3W 8D 13L).
On the road, PAOK have gone 10W 7D 7L from 24 away games — 1.54 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PAOK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Lamia are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; PAOK are on 1.59 scored and 0.84 conceded.
Defensively: PAOK in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lamia
Blended
PAOK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lamia and PAOK in coming into this match?
Lamia have gone 8W 16D 27L in their last 51 games (0.78 PPG), while PAOK have gone 28W 12D 11L in their last 51 (1.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lamia at home or PAOK away?
PAOK's away record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lamia at home: 0.71 PPG; PAOK away: 1.54 PPG.
Have Lamia or PAOK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lamia have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, PAOK in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: PAOK have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Feb 2025, when PAOK won 7-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lamia's record when hosting PAOK specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Lamia
1
Draws
9
PAOK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lamia and PAOK?
From 10 meetings on record, Lamia have won 0, PAOK have won 9, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Lamia and PAOK last play each other?
They last met on 16 February 2025, when PAOK 7-0 Lamia.
Who has won more matches between Lamia and PAOK?
PAOK have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lamia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
PAOK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lamia 54%, PAOK 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Lamia) and 38% (PAOK).
On the defensive side: PAOK in 38%; Lamia have failed to score in 42% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lamia home games / PAOK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lamia play PAOK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Lamia's recent matches and 46% of PAOK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lamia vs PAOK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Lamia's recent games and 38% of PAOK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lamia and PAOK tend to score early?
Lamia have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, PAOK in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant PAOK run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Lamia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAOK beat Lamia 0-3 at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias, Regular Season - 17, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamia 0.84 xG and PAOK 1.47 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Lamia fell 0.8 short of their projected output. PAOK outscored their 1.47 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamia attack 0.86 / defence 1.23 against PAOK attack 1.19 / defence 0.79, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lamia 18% | Draw 34% | PAOK 48%, with PAOK to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamia 43%, PAOK 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lamia's trading profile (51 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 53% of games, a blank that repeated today.
PAOK's trading profile (51 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, PAOK arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 0.78. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Lamia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.58 concession average — a leakier day than usual. PAOK (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.46 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.