Lamia 1-1 PAOK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours PAOK (61%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Lamia face PAOK.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League 1 clash, Championship Round - 7 as Lamia welcome PAOK to Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 24 April 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Lamia have gone 0W 1D 9L from 10 outings — a 0.10 PPG return. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 3.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 3.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Lamia have posted 3W 0D 7L at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 0.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.10 — Lamia are significantly better at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias than their overall form suggests.
PAOK — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W W D L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, PAOK have gone 7W 1D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.20 exceeds their overall 1.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. PAOK are 1.60 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The previous 7 encounters between these sides heavily favour PAOK, who boast 7 victories compared to 0 for Lamia.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Apr 2024, ended 1–3 with PAOK winning.
It is worth noting that PAOK have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 7 wins from 7 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Data
Lamia trading profile (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 37% of games.
PAOK trading profile (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; they lead at the break 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lamia 52% versus PAOK 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lamia 55% | PAOK 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lamia 1.05 xG and PAOK 2.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamia attack 0.906 / defence 1.087 | PAOK attack 1.472 / defence 0.708. League average goals — home 1.635 / away 1.361. PAOK's defence strength of 0.708 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. PAOK have an above-average attack strength of 1.472 — the away xG of 2.18 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 52 Lamia games / 52 PAOK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lamia 16% | Draw 23% | PAOK 61%. Fair-value odds: Lamia 6.25 | Draw 4.35 | PAOK 1.64. The model has a clear lean to PAOK (61%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.23. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.23 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates PAOK as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.23 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Lamia 50% | PAOK 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lamia vs PAOK | Competition: Super League 1, Championship Round - 7 | Venue: Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias • Kick-off: Wednesday 24 Apr 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lamia 16% | Draw 23% | PAOK 61% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 59% | xG Lamia 1.05 / PAOK 2.18 • Poisson strength factors: Lamia attack 0.906 / def 1.087 | PAOK attack 1.472 / def 0.708 | league avg home 1.635 / away 1.361 • Poisson stance: PAOK (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Lamia xG
Expected Goals
2.18
PAOK xG
59%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lamia vs PAOK kick off?
Lamia vs PAOK kicked off at 15:00 on Wednesday 24 April 2024 at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias.
What was the final score in Lamia vs PAOK?
Lamia 1 - 1 PAOK.
Where is Lamia vs PAOK being played?
The match is being played at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias.
What competition is Lamia vs PAOK part of?
Lamia vs PAOK is a Championship Round - 7 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Lamia vs PAOK?
Our statistical model gives Lamia a 16% chance of winning, PAOK a 61% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making PAOK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lamia vs PAOK?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Lamia and PAOK will score (BTTS).
Will Lamia vs PAOK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lamia and PAOK?
Record (7 meetings): Lamia 0W | Draws 0 | PAOK 7W.
What form are Lamia and PAOK in?
Lamia (all comps): 0W-1D-9L in 10 | 0.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 3.30 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. PAOK (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Lamia's attack at 0.91x the league average against PAOK's defence at 0.71x — combine the two and it projects 1.05 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, PAOK's attack versus Lamia's defence, projects 2.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
PAOK Win
16%
6.45
23%
4.31
61%
1.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
9.4%
Away win
1 – 1
9.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Lamia xG
Total xG
3.23
2.18
PAOK xG
6.45
16%
Home win
4.31
23%
Draw
1.63
61%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
11%
8.83
35%
2.85
Win to Nil
2%
56.96
21%
4.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 8.6 | 9.4 | 6.8 | 3.7 | 1.6 |
| 1 | 4.2 | 9.1 | 9.9 | 7.2 | 3.9 | 1.7 |
| 2 | 2.2 | 4.8 | 5.2 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lamia vs PAOK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are Lamia and PAOK expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Lamia and 2.18 for PAOK, a combined total of 3.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Lamia vs PAOK?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 65 outings, Lamia have picked up 0.97 PPG on a 14W 21D 30L record — L-L-L-L-L across the most recent five.
PAOK's form line: 38W 14D 13L from 65 games, 1.97 PPG, last five L-W-W-D-L.
Put side by side, PAOK are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Lamia.
Venue Form
On home soil, Lamia have posted 1.16 PPG from 32 outings (10W 7D 15L).
On the road, PAOK have gone 18W 7D 7L from 32 away games — 1.91 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PAOK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Lamia are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.85 conceded per game recently; PAOK are on 1.98 scored and 0.92 conceded.
Defensively: PAOK in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 65 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lamia
Current Season
PAOK
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lamia and PAOK in coming into this match?
Lamia have gone 14W 21D 30L in their last 65 games (0.97 PPG), while PAOK have gone 38W 14D 13L in their last 65 (1.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lamia at home or PAOK away?
PAOK's away record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lamia at home: 1.16 PPG; PAOK away: 1.91 PPG.
Have Lamia or PAOK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lamia have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, PAOK in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: PAOK have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Feb 2025, when PAOK won 7-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lamia's record when hosting PAOK specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Lamia
1
Draws
9
PAOK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lamia and PAOK?
From 10 meetings on record, Lamia have won 0, PAOK have won 9, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Lamia and PAOK last play each other?
They last met on 16 February 2025, when PAOK 7-0 Lamia.
Who has won more matches between Lamia and PAOK?
PAOK have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lamia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
PAOK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lamia 50%, PAOK 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Lamia) and 59% (PAOK). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: PAOK in 34%; Lamia have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lamia home games / PAOK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lamia play PAOK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Lamia's recent matches and 53% of PAOK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lamia vs PAOK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Lamia's matches and 59% of PAOK's.
Do Lamia and PAOK tend to score early?
Lamia have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, PAOK in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lamia and PAOK share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lamia and PAOK finished level at 1-1 at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias, Championship Round - 7, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamia 1.05 xG and PAOK 2.18 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. PAOK landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamia attack 0.91 / defence 1.09 against PAOK attack 1.47 / defence 0.71, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lamia 16% | Draw 23% | PAOK 61%, with PAOK to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamia 55%, PAOK 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lamia's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
PAOK's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, PAOK arrived the stronger side — 1.97 PPG against 0.97. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Lamia (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.84 average — tighter than their form line. PAOK (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.