Lamia 1-0 Panetolikos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lamia at 47% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lamia vs Panetolikos encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Lamia welcome Panetolikos to Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias in Super League 1 (matchday 7). Kick-off is Sunday 1 October 2023 at 14:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Lamia have gone 2W 6D 2L — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W L D L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Lamia at home: 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Panetolikos stand at 0W 4D 6L — 0.40 PPG. Last five: D D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Panetolikos's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 2D 7L (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Lamia have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.20 vs 0.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Lamia, 1 for Panetolikos and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 4 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.2 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 1 Apr 2023, ended Lamia 3–1 Panetolikos — a Lamia win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.2 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Lamia trading profile (last 38 games, 17 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
Panetolikos trading profile (last 38 games, 17 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lamia 45% versus Panetolikos 47%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Lamia 40% | Panetolikos 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lamia 1.61 xG and Panetolikos 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamia attack 0.917 / defence 1.056 | Panetolikos attack 0.820 / defence 1.045. League average goals — home 1.680 / away 1.208. Data: built from Lamia's last 32 games and Panetolikos's last 31.
Result probabilities: Lamia 47% | Draw 32% | Panetolikos 21%. Fair-value odds: Lamia 2.13 | Draw 3.13 | Panetolikos 4.73. Lamia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lamia at 47% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lamia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.66 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — low conviction — though recent form (Lamia's last 10 home games and Panetolikos's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 4 H2H matches point the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Lamia 50% (last 10 home games) | Panetolikos 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lamia vs Panetolikos | Competition: Super League 1, matchday 7 | Venue: Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias • Kick-off: Sunday 1 October 2023 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lamia 47% | Draw 32% | Panetolikos 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Lamia 1.61 / Panetolikos 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Lamia attack 0.917 / def 1.056 | Panetolikos attack 0.820 / def 1.045 | league avg home 1.680 / away 1.208 • Poisson stance: Lamia (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Lamia xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Panetolikos xG
55%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lamia vs Panetolikos FAQs
What time does Lamia vs Panetolikos kick off?
Lamia vs Panetolikos kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Sunday 1 October 2023 at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias.
What was the final score in Lamia vs Panetolikos?
Lamia 1 - 0 Panetolikos.
Where is Lamia vs Panetolikos being played?
The match is being played at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias.
What competition is Lamia vs Panetolikos part of?
Lamia vs Panetolikos is a Super League 1 fixture (matchday 7) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Lamia vs Panetolikos?
Our statistical model gives Lamia a 47% chance of winning, Panetolikos a 21% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Lamia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lamia vs Panetolikos?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Lamia and Panetolikos will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Lamia vs Panetolikos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Lamia's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Panetolikos's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.61. The same calculation in reverse, Panetolikos's attack versus Lamia's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Lamia's last 32 games and Panetolikos's last 31 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.8%), 2-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lamia Win
47%
2.13
32%
3.13
21%
4.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Lamia xG
Total xG
2.66
1.05
Panetolikos xG
2.13
47%
Home win
3.13
32%
Draw
4.73
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.80
45%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
20%
5.00
Win to Nil
16%
6.07
4%
23.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 7.3 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 11.8 | 6.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.5 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lamia vs Panetolikos Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lamia vs Panetolikos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Lamia and Panetolikos expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Lamia and 1.05 for Panetolikos, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Lamia vs Panetolikos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 38 outings, Lamia have picked up 0.92 PPG on a 6W 17D 15L record — W-L-D-L-D across the most recent five.
Panetolikos's form line: 7W 12D 19L from 38 games, 0.87 PPG, last five D-D-L-L-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lamia on 0.92 PPG, Panetolikos on 0.87. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Lamia have posted 1.24 PPG from their last 17 home games (5W 6D 6L).
On the road, Panetolikos have gone 4W 5D 8L from their last 17 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Lamia are averaging 0.76 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Panetolikos are on 0.89 scored and 1.66 conceded.
Last 38 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lamia
Early Season
Panetolikos
Early Season
Lamia (Home) vs Panetolikos (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lamia
Early Season
Panetolikos
Early Season
❓ Lamia vs Panetolikos Form FAQs
What form are Lamia and Panetolikos in coming into this match?
Lamia have gone 6W 17D 15L in their last 38 games (0.92 PPG), while Panetolikos have gone 7W 12D 19L in their last 38 (0.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lamia at home or Panetolikos away?
Lamia's home record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lamia at home: 1.24 PPG; Panetolikos away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to March 2022. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent in our data was on 18 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Panetolikos have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
Lamia's record when hosting Panetolikos specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Lamia
1
Draws
4
Panetolikos
Recent Meetings
❓ Lamia vs Panetolikos H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lamia and Panetolikos?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Lamia have won 5, Panetolikos have won 4, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Lamia and Panetolikos last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 May 2025: Lamia 1-3 Panetolikos.
Who has won more matches between Lamia and Panetolikos?
Lamia have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lamia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Panetolikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lamia 47%, Panetolikos 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Lamia) and 53% (Panetolikos).
On the defensive side: Lamia have failed to score in 29% of games; Panetolikos in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lamia home games / Panetolikos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lamia vs Panetolikos Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lamia and Panetolikos matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of Lamia's games and 65% of Panetolikos's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Lamia and Panetolikos matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Lamia's recent games and 53% of Panetolikos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lamia and Panetolikos matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of Lamia's recent matches and 76% of Panetolikos's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Lamia edge out Panetolikos 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lamia beat Panetolikos 1-0 at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias, Regular Season - 7, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamia 1.61 xG and Panetolikos 1.05 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Panetolikos landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamia attack 0.92 / defence 1.06 against Panetolikos attack 0.82 / defence 1.04, drawn from 32/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lamia 47% | Draw 32% | Panetolikos 21%, with Lamia to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamia 40%, Panetolikos 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lamia's trading profile (38 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not.
Panetolikos's trading profile (38 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 47% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lamia 0.92 PPG, Panetolikos 0.87 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lamia win broke the near-deadlock. Lamia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line. Panetolikos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.82 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.