Lamia 0-2 Panathinaikos – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Panathinaikos at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lamia vs Panathinaikos encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lamia host Panathinaikos at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias in Super League 1, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 16 October 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Lamia — All Games: 2W 6D 2L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D L D W D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Lamia have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Lamia at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 home games — 0.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.60 lags behind their overall 1.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias this season.
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Panathinaikos have recorded 9W 0D 1L from 10 outings — 2.70 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.50. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Panathinaikos have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Panathinaikos's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.80 is notably below their overall 2.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Panathinaikos's 2.70 PPG return is 1.50 points per game ahead of Lamia's 1.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Lamia's 30% rate and Panathinaikos's 20% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Lamia have won 0, Panathinaikos 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 13 Feb 2022, ended 0–2 with Panathinaikos winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Lamia in-play and half-time data (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
Panathinaikos in-play and half-time data (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 55% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lamia 43% versus Panathinaikos 31%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Lamia 40% | Panathinaikos 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lamia 0.83 xG and Panathinaikos 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamia attack 0.762 / defence 0.997 | Panathinaikos attack 1.204 / defence 0.857. League average goals — home 1.270 / away 1.055. Lamia's attack strength of 0.762 is below the league average — the 0.83 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Panathinaikos have an above-average attack strength of 1.204 — the away xG of 1.27 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 33 Lamia games / 33 Panathinaikos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lamia 22% | Draw 33% | Panathinaikos 45%. Fair-value odds: Lamia 4.55 | Draw 3.03 | Panathinaikos 2.22. Panathinaikos hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Panathinaikos are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Panathinaikos offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.10 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.6 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: Lamia 30% | Panathinaikos 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lamia vs Panathinaikos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Oct 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lamia 22% | Draw 33% | Panathinaikos 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 43% | xG Lamia 0.83 / Panathinaikos 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Lamia attack 0.762 / def 0.997 | Panathinaikos attack 1.204 / def 0.857 | league avg home 1.270 / away 1.055 • Poisson stance: Panathinaikos (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.83
Lamia xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Panathinaikos xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lamia vs Panathinaikos kick off?
Lamia vs Panathinaikos kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 16 October 2022 at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias.
What was the final score in Lamia vs Panathinaikos?
Lamia 0 - 2 Panathinaikos.
Where is Lamia vs Panathinaikos being played?
The match is being played at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias.
What competition is Lamia vs Panathinaikos part of?
Lamia vs Panathinaikos is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Lamia vs Panathinaikos?
Our statistical model gives Lamia a 22% chance of winning, Panathinaikos a 45% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Panathinaikos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lamia vs Panathinaikos?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Lamia and Panathinaikos will score (BTTS).
Will Lamia vs Panathinaikos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lamia and Panathinaikos?
Record (2 meetings): Lamia 0W | Draws 0 | Panathinaikos 2W.
What form are Lamia and Panathinaikos in?
Lamia (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-L-D-W-D. Panathinaikos (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Lamia's attacking strength (0.76x league average) is weighed against Panathinaikos's defensive record (0.86x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.83. The same calculation in reverse, Panathinaikos's attack versus Lamia's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.0%), 0-1 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Panathinaikos Win
22%
4.48
33%
3.02
45%
2.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.83
Lamia xG
Total xG
2.10
1.27
Panathinaikos xG
4.48
22%
Home win
3.02
33%
Draw
2.25
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.35
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
28%
3.55
44%
2.29
Win to Nil
6%
15.88
19%
5.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 15.6 | 9.9 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.9 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 5.4 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lamia vs Panathinaikos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Lamia and Panathinaikos expected to score?
The model projects 0.83 expected goals for Lamia and 1.27 for Panathinaikos, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Lamia vs Panathinaikos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Lamia come into this having played 42 games, going 8W 13D 21L for 0.88 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-W-D. It's still early in the season for Lamia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Panathinaikos sit at 1.88 PPG from 42 outings (24W 7D 11L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Panathinaikos, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Panathinaikos carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Lamia — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Lamia's home form reads 3W 6D 11L across 20 games on their own ground, a 0.75 PPG return.
Away from home, Panathinaikos have taken 1.25 points per game from 20 outings (7W 4D 9L). That's a step down from their 1.88 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Panathinaikos's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Panathinaikos come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Lamia are averaging 0.71 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Panathinaikos are on 1.43 scored and 0.67 conceded.
Defensively: Panathinaikos in 55% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lamia
Early Season
Panathinaikos
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lamia and Panathinaikos in coming into this match?
Lamia have gone 8W 13D 21L in their last 42 games (0.88 PPG), while Panathinaikos have gone 24W 7D 11L in their last 42 (1.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lamia at home or Panathinaikos away?
Panathinaikos's away record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lamia at home: 0.75 PPG; Panathinaikos away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Lamia or Panathinaikos been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lamia have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Panathinaikos in 55%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lamia and Panathinaikos runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Apr 2024, when Panathinaikos won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lamia's record when hosting Panathinaikos specifically: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Lamia
1
Draws
8
Panathinaikos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lamia and Panathinaikos?
From 10 meetings on record, Lamia have won 1, Panathinaikos have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Lamia and Panathinaikos last play each other?
They last met on 23 February 2025, when Lamia 3-1 Panathinaikos.
Who has won more matches between Lamia and Panathinaikos?
Panathinaikos have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lamia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Panathinaikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lamia 50%, Panathinaikos 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Lamia) and 40% (Panathinaikos).
On the defensive side: Panathinaikos in 40%; Lamia have failed to score in 45% of games; Panathinaikos in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lamia home games / Panathinaikos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lamia play Panathinaikos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Lamia's recent matches and 35% of Panathinaikos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lamia vs Panathinaikos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Lamia's recent games and 40% of Panathinaikos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lamia and Panathinaikos tend to score early?
Lamia have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Panathinaikos in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Panathinaikos cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Lamia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Panathinaikos beat Lamia 0-2 at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias, Regular Season - 8, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamia 0.83 xG and Panathinaikos 1.27 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Lamia fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamia attack 0.76 / defence 1.00 against Panathinaikos attack 1.20 / defence 0.86, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lamia 22% | Draw 33% | Panathinaikos 45%, with Panathinaikos to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamia 40%, Panathinaikos 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 37%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lamia's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Panathinaikos's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 55% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Panathinaikos arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 0.88. Form held, and they took the win. Lamia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward. Panathinaikos (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.95 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.