Lamia 1-0 Olympiakos Piraeus – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Olympiakos Piraeus (50%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Lamia face Olympiakos Piraeus.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Olympiakos Piraeus travel to Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias to take on Lamia. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 3 January 2024, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lamia stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Lamia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lamia's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Lamia are significantly better at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias than their overall form suggests.
Olympiakos Piraeus — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W D W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Olympiakos Piraeus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Olympiakos Piraeus have posted 5W 4D 1L from 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 7 away clean sheets from 10 games (70%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Olympiakos Piraeus — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.10 vs 1.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The previous 5 encounters between these sides heavily favour Olympiakos Piraeus, who boast 5 victories compared to 0 for Lamia.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Sep 2023, ended 0–4 with Olympiakos Piraeus winning.
It is worth noting that Olympiakos Piraeus have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 5 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Data
Lamia trading profile (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Olympiakos Piraeus trading profile (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lamia 46% versus Olympiakos Piraeus 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lamia 48% | Olympiakos Piraeus 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lamia 0.94 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamia attack 0.972 / defence 1.213 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.059 / defence 0.614. League average goals — home 1.579 / away 1.210. Olympiakos Piraeus's defence strength of 0.614 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 41 Lamia games / 41 Olympiakos Piraeus games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lamia 21% | Draw 29% | Olympiakos Piraeus 50%. Fair-value odds: Lamia 4.76 | Draw 3.45 | Olympiakos Piraeus 2.00. Olympiakos Piraeus hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.50. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.50 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Olympiakos Piraeus at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Olympiakos Piraeus offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.50 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Lamia 60% | Olympiakos Piraeus 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lamia vs Olympiakos Piraeus | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias • Kick-off: Wednesday 3 Jan 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lamia 21% | Draw 29% | Olympiakos Piraeus 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Lamia 0.94 / Olympiakos Piraeus 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Lamia attack 0.972 / def 1.213 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.059 / def 0.614 | league avg home 1.579 / away 1.210 • Poisson stance: Olympiakos Piraeus (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Lamia xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
50%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lamia vs Olympiakos Piraeus kick off?
Lamia vs Olympiakos Piraeus kicked off at 15:00 on Wednesday 3 January 2024 at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias.
What was the final score in Lamia vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Lamia 1 - 0 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Where is Lamia vs Olympiakos Piraeus being played?
The match is being played at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias.
What competition is Lamia vs Olympiakos Piraeus part of?
Lamia vs Olympiakos Piraeus is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Lamia vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our statistical model gives Lamia a 21% chance of winning, Olympiakos Piraeus a 50% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Olympiakos Piraeus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lamia vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Lamia and Olympiakos Piraeus will score (BTTS).
Will Lamia vs Olympiakos Piraeus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lamia and Olympiakos Piraeus?
Record (5 meetings): Lamia 0W | Draws 0 | Olympiakos Piraeus 5W.
What form are Lamia and Olympiakos Piraeus in?
Lamia (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-L-D. Olympiakos Piraeus (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Lamia's attack rating (0.97) and Olympiakos Piraeus's defence rating (0.61), the model arrives at 0.94 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Olympiakos Piraeus's attack versus Lamia's defence, projects 1.55 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.2%), 0-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Olympiakos Piraeus Win
21%
4.73
29%
3.45
50%
2.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
0 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Lamia xG
Total xG
2.50
1.55
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
4.73
21%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
2.01
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
21%
4.73
39%
2.57
Win to Nil
4%
22.35
19%
5.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 12.8 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 12.1 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 5.7 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lamia vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Lamia and Olympiakos Piraeus expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Lamia and 1.55 for Olympiakos Piraeus, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Lamia vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 48 outings, Lamia have picked up 0.96 PPG on a 9W 19D 20L record — L-D-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Lamia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Olympiakos Piraeus's form line: 29W 13D 6L from 48 games, 2.08 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-D. The sample for Olympiakos Piraeus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Olympiakos Piraeus are the form team by 1.12 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Lamia.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Lamia have posted 1.22 PPG from 23 outings (7W 7D 9L).
On the road, Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 13W 8D 2L from 23 away games — 2.04 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Olympiakos Piraeus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Lamia are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Olympiakos Piraeus are on 2.08 scored and 0.69 conceded.
Defensively: Olympiakos Piraeus in 56% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lamia
Blended
Olympiakos Piraeus
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lamia and Olympiakos Piraeus in coming into this match?
Lamia have gone 9W 19D 20L in their last 48 games (0.96 PPG), while Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 29W 13D 6L in their last 48 (2.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lamia at home or Olympiakos Piraeus away?
Olympiakos Piraeus's away record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lamia at home: 1.22 PPG; Olympiakos Piraeus away: 2.04 PPG.
Have Lamia or Olympiakos Piraeus been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lamia have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Olympiakos Piraeus in 56%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lamia and Olympiakos Piraeus runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 December 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Olympiakos Piraeus have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Sep 2023, when Olympiakos Piraeus won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lamia's record when hosting Olympiakos Piraeus specifically: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Lamia
0
Draws
9
Olympiakos Piraeus
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lamia and Olympiakos Piraeus?
From 10 meetings on record, Lamia have won 1, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 9, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Lamia and Olympiakos Piraeus last play each other?
They last met on 21 December 2024, when Olympiakos Piraeus 1-0 Lamia.
Who has won more matches between Lamia and Olympiakos Piraeus?
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lamia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Olympiakos Piraeus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lamia 52%, Olympiakos Piraeus 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Lamia) and 39% (Olympiakos Piraeus).
On the defensive side: Olympiakos Piraeus in 61%; Lamia have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lamia home games / Olympiakos Piraeus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lamia play Olympiakos Piraeus?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Lamia's recent matches and 35% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lamia vs Olympiakos Piraeus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Lamia's recent games and 39% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lamia and Olympiakos Piraeus tend to score early?
Lamia have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Olympiakos Piraeus in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Lamia defy the odds to beat Olympiakos Piraeus 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lamia beat Olympiakos Piraeus 1-0 at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias, Regular Season - 16, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamia 0.94 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.55 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Olympiakos Piraeus landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamia attack 0.97 / defence 1.21 against Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.06 / defence 0.61, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lamia 21% | Draw 29% | Olympiakos Piraeus 50%, with Olympiakos Piraeus to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Lamia win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamia 48%, Olympiakos Piraeus 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lamia's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.
Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Olympiakos Piraeus arrived the stronger side — 2.08 PPG against 0.96. Form was overturned, with Lamia winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Lamia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line. Olympiakos Piraeus (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.61 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.