Lamia 2-1 OFI – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates OFI at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lamia vs OFI fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
OFI make the trip to Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias to face Lamia in Super League 1, Regular Season - 20. The match kicks off on Saturday 29 January 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Lamia's overall Super League 1 record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: D L L W D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Lamia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias, Lamia have gone 1W 3D 5L this season (9 games, 0.67 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
OFI have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for OFI, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, OFI have posted 4W 3D 2L from 9 away outings — 1.67 PPG. Away from home they average 1.11 goals scored and 0.78 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 9 away games (44%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Lamia against 1.40 for OFI. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Lamia 0W, OFI 0W, 1D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Oct 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Lamia half-time and goal-timing data (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
OFI half-time and goal-timing data (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lamia 50% versus OFI 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lamia 50% | OFI 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lamia 0.92 xG and OFI 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamia attack 0.904 / defence 1.441 | OFI attack 0.903 / defence 1.049. League average goals — home 0.965 / away 1.151. Data: 18 Lamia games / 19 OFI games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lamia 23% | Draw 26% | OFI 51%. Fair-value odds: Lamia 4.35 | Draw 3.85 | OFI 1.96. OFI hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, OFI are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on OFI if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.41 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Lamia 67% | OFI 33%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lamia vs OFI | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Jan 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lamia 23% | Draw 26% | OFI 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 47% | xG Lamia 0.92 / OFI 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Lamia attack 0.904 / def 1.441 | OFI attack 0.903 / def 1.049 | league avg home 0.965 / away 1.151 • Poisson stance: OFI (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Lamia xG
Expected Goals
1.50
OFI xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lamia vs OFI kick off?
Lamia vs OFI kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 29 January 2022 at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias.
What was the final score in Lamia vs OFI?
Lamia 2 - 1 OFI.
Where is Lamia vs OFI being played?
The match is being played at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias.
What competition is Lamia vs OFI part of?
Lamia vs OFI is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Lamia vs OFI?
Our statistical model gives Lamia a 23% chance of winning, OFI a 51% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making OFI the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lamia vs OFI?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Lamia and OFI will score (BTTS).
Will Lamia vs OFI have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lamia and OFI?
Record (1 meetings): Lamia 0W | Draws 1 | OFI 0W.
What form are Lamia and OFI in?
Lamia (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-L-W-D. OFI (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Lamia's attack rating (0.90) and OFI's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 0.92 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — OFI's attack (0.90x) against Lamia's defence (1.44x) — and the away total comes out at 1.50.
These ratings are built from 18/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.8%), 0-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
OFI Win
23%
4.34
26%
3.83
51%
1.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
0 – 2
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Lamia xG
Total xG
2.41
1.50
OFI xG
4.34
23%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
1.97
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.15
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
22%
4.47
40%
2.50
Win to Nil
5%
19.42
20%
4.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 13.4 | 10.0 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 12.3 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 5.6 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lamia vs OFI?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Lamia and OFI expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Lamia and 1.50 for OFI, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Lamia vs OFI?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 18 outings, Lamia have picked up 0.83 PPG on a 3W 6D 9L record — D-L-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Lamia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
OFI's form line: 6W 7D 5L from 18 games, 1.39 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-L. The sample for OFI is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, OFI are the form team by 0.56 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Lamia.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Lamia have posted 0.75 PPG from 8 outings (1W 3D 4L).
On the road, OFI have gone 4W 2D 2L from 8 away games — 1.75 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, OFI come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Lamia are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; OFI are on 1.28 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 18 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lamia
Blended
OFI
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lamia and OFI in coming into this match?
Lamia have gone 3W 6D 9L in their last 18 games (0.83 PPG), while OFI have gone 6W 7D 5L in their last 18 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lamia at home or OFI away?
OFI's away record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lamia at home: 0.75 PPG; OFI away: 1.75 PPG.
Have Lamia or OFI been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lamia have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, OFI in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: OFI won 1-4 on 13 Feb 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lamia have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against OFI — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Lamia
5
Draws
4
OFI
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lamia and OFI?
From 10 meetings on record, Lamia have won 1, OFI have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Lamia and OFI last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2025, when OFI 3-0 Lamia.
Who has won more matches between Lamia and OFI?
OFI have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Lamia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lamia 62%, OFI 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Lamia) and 50% (OFI). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: OFI in 38%; Lamia have failed to score in 38% of games; OFI in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lamia home games / OFI away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lamia play OFI?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Lamia's recent matches and 38% of OFI's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lamia vs OFI usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Lamia's matches and 50% of OFI's.
Do Lamia and OFI tend to score early?
Lamia have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, OFI in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Lamia defy the odds to beat OFI 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lamia beat OFI 2-1 at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias, Regular Season - 20, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamia 0.92 xG and OFI 1.50 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Lamia beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamia attack 0.90 / defence 1.44 against OFI attack 0.90 / defence 1.05, drawn from 18/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lamia 23% | Draw 26% | OFI 51%, with OFI to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Lamia win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamia 50%, OFI 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lamia's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
OFI's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, OFI arrived the stronger side — 1.39 PPG against 0.83. Form was overturned, with Lamia winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Lamia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm. OFI (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.