Lamia 1-0 Levadiakos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 41% as Lamia take on Levadiakos.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 6 sees Levadiakos travel to Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias to take on Lamia. The game is scheduled for Saturday 1 October 2022, 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lamia stand at 2W 6D 2L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D D L D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Lamia have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Lamia have posted 1W 3D 6L at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias — 0.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.60 lags behind their overall 1.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias this season.
Levadiakos — All Games: 0W 2D 3L from 5 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Levadiakos have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Levadiakos's form when playing away from home: 0W 1D 3L across 4 road games this term (0.25 PPG). Away from home they average 0.25 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Lamia are in the better shape of the two on current Super League 1 data — 0.80 PPG ahead (1.20 vs 0.40). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Profile
Lamia in-play tendencies (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 80% of games.
Levadiakos in-play tendencies (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; they fail to score in 60% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Lamia 20% | Levadiakos 40%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Lamia 20% | Levadiakos 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lamia 1.03 xG and Levadiakos 0.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamia attack 0.756 / defence 1.104 | Levadiakos attack 0.651 / defence 1.167. League average goals — home 1.167 / away 0.967. Lamia's attack strength of 0.756 is below the league average — the 1.03 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 31 Lamia games / 5 Levadiakos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lamia 39% | Draw 41% | Levadiakos 20%. Fair-value odds: Lamia 2.56 | Draw 2.44 | Levadiakos 5.00. The draw (41%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.73. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.73 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 41% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 39% and away win at 20% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.73 combined xG gives a 25% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 36% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Lamia 40% | Levadiakos 25% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lamia vs Levadiakos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Oct 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lamia 39% | Draw 41% | Levadiakos 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 25% | BTTS 36% | xG Lamia 1.03 / Levadiakos 0.70 • Poisson strength factors: Lamia attack 0.756 / def 1.104 | Levadiakos attack 0.651 / def 1.167 | league avg home 1.167 / away 0.967 • Poisson stance: Draw (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Lamia xG
Expected Goals
0.70
Levadiakos xG
36%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lamia vs Levadiakos kick off?
Lamia vs Levadiakos kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 1 October 2022 at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias.
What was the final score in Lamia vs Levadiakos?
Lamia 1 - 0 Levadiakos.
Where is Lamia vs Levadiakos being played?
The match is being played at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias.
What competition is Lamia vs Levadiakos part of?
Lamia vs Levadiakos is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Lamia vs Levadiakos?
Our statistical model gives Lamia a 39% chance of winning, Levadiakos a 20% chance, and a 41% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Lamia vs Levadiakos?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Lamia and Levadiakos will score (BTTS).
Will Lamia vs Levadiakos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 25%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lamia and Levadiakos?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lamia and Levadiakos in?
Lamia (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-D-D-L-D. Levadiakos (all comps): 0W-2D-3L in 5 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Lamia's attack at 0.76x the league average against Levadiakos's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 1.03 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Levadiakos's attack versus Lamia's defence, projects 0.70 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 19.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (16.7%), 1-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 51% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
39%
2.57
41%
2.46
20%
4.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.3%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
17.8%
Draw
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Lamia xG
Total xG
1.73
0.70
Levadiakos xG
2.57
39%
Home win
2.46
41%
Draw
4.90
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
51%
Over 1.5
1.96
49%
Under 1.5
2.04
25%
Over 2.5
4.00
75%
Under 2.5
1.33
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.77
64%
BTTS No
1.56
Clean Sheet
50%
2.01
36%
2.80
Win to Nil
19%
5.16
7%
13.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.8 | 12.4 | 4.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 18.3 | 12.8 | 4.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.4 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lamia vs Levadiakos?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.5%.
How many goals are Lamia and Levadiakos expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Lamia and 0.70 for Levadiakos, a combined total of 1.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Lamia vs Levadiakos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Lamia's recent record stands at 0W 3D 2L from 5 games, a 0.60 PPG return, with L-D-D-L-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Lamia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Levadiakos, meanwhile, have gone 0W 2D 3L across 5 games — 0.40 PPG, with L-D-L-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Levadiakos, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lamia on 0.60 PPG, Levadiakos on 0.40. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
The Goals Picture
Lamia are averaging 0.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Levadiakos are on 0.40 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lamia have seen both teams score in 20% of their recent games.
Defensively: Lamia have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lamia
Early Season
Levadiakos
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lamia and Levadiakos in coming into this match?
Lamia have gone 0W 3D 2L in their last 5 games (0.60 PPG), while Levadiakos have gone 0W 2D 3L in their last 5 (0.40 PPG).
Have Lamia or Levadiakos been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lamia have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Levadiakos in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lamia and Levadiakos runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 May 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Lamia's record when hosting Levadiakos specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
1
Lamia
4
Draws
2
Levadiakos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lamia and Levadiakos?
From 7 meetings on record, Lamia have won 1, Levadiakos have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Lamia and Levadiakos last play each other?
They last met on 5 May 2025, when Lamia 2-3 Levadiakos.
Who has won more matches between Lamia and Levadiakos?
Levadiakos have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lamia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Levadiakos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Lamia 20% BTTS, Levadiakos 40%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 20% for Lamia and 40% for Levadiakos.
On the defensive side: Lamia keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Lamia have failed to score in 80% of games; Levadiakos in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lamia home games / Levadiakos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lamia play Levadiakos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of Lamia's recent matches and 40% of Levadiakos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lamia vs Levadiakos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Lamia's recent games and 40% of Levadiakos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lamia and Levadiakos tend to score early?
Lamia have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Levadiakos in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Lamia edge out Levadiakos 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lamia beat Levadiakos 1-0 at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias, Regular Season - 6, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamia 1.03 xG and Levadiakos 0.70 xG, a combined 1.73. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamia attack 0.76 / defence 1.10 against Levadiakos attack 0.65 / defence 1.17, drawn from 31/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lamia 39% | Draw 41% | Levadiakos 20%, with the draw its most likely call at 41%. The actual Lamia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 39%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 55% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 30% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamia 20%, Levadiakos 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 30%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lamia's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 20% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Levadiakos's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 60% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lamia 0.60 PPG, Levadiakos 0.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lamia win broke the near-deadlock. Lamia scored 1 against a 0.20 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.