Lamia 1-0 Aris Thessalonikis – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Lamia at 47% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lamia vs Aris Thessalonikis encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

Lamia host Aris Thessalonikis at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias in Super League 1 (matchday 2). Kick-off is Sunday 27 August 2023 at 18:15 UK time.

Form Guide

Lamia — last 10 games: 4W 5D 1L, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W D D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home, Lamia have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.20 lags behind their overall 1.70 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Aris Thessalonikis stand at 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.80. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

Aris Thessalonikis away from home: 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

On current form, Lamia have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Lamia have won 1, Aris Thessalonikis 2, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 5 Mar 2023, ended Lamia 2–1 Aris Thessalonikis — a Lamia win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Lamia in-play and half-time data (last 34 games, 16 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 60%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.

Aris Thessalonikis in-play and half-time data (last 34 games, 16 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lamia 44% versus Aris Thessalonikis 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lamia 41% | Aris Thessalonikis 62%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Lamia surrender their half-time lead 60% of the time, while Aris Thessalonikis have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 36% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Lamia 1.65 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamia attack 0.926 / defence 1.146 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.156 / defence 1.130. League average goals — home 1.577 / away 0.813. Data: built from Lamia's last 27 games and Aris Thessalonikis's last 27. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Lamia 47% | Draw 31% | Aris Thessalonikis 21%. Fair-value odds: Lamia 2.12 | Draw 3.18 | Aris Thessalonikis 4.70. Lamia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Lamia at 47% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lamia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.73 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Lamia's last 10 home games and Aris Thessalonikis's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Lamia 50% (last 10 home games) | Aris Thessalonikis 60% (last 10 away games).

The Poisson model's sample (Lamia 27 games, Aris Thessalonikis 27) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights