Lamia 1-2 Apollon Smirnis – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Lamia at 58% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lamia vs Apollon Smirnis encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

Apollon Smirnis travel to Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias to take on Lamia in Super League 1 (matchday 24). The game is scheduled for Sunday 20 February 2022 at 13:00 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Lamia stand at 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).

In front of their own supporters, Lamia have posted 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 home games — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Across their last 10 games, Apollon Smirnis have recorded 0W 3D 7L — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Apollon Smirnis's form when playing away from home: 0W 1D 9L across their last 10 road games (0.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

Lamia carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 0.80 vs 0.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Lamia have won 0, Apollon Smirnis 0, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 27 Nov 2021, ended Lamia 0–0 Apollon Smirnis — a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Profile

Lamia in-play tendencies (last 22 games, 10 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.

Apollon Smirnis in-play tendencies (last 22 games, 10 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 73% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lamia 50% versus Apollon Smirnis 23%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lamia 50% | Apollon Smirnis 41%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Lamia 1.57 xG and Apollon Smirnis 0.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamia attack 0.977 / defence 1.380 | Apollon Smirnis attack 0.462 / defence 1.632. League average goals — home 0.984 / away 1.109. Apollon Smirnis's defence rating of 1.632 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Lamia's projected output up. Apollon Smirnis's attack rating of 0.462 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.71. Lamia's defence rating of 1.380 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Apollon Smirnis's projected output up. Data: built from Lamia's last 22 games and Apollon Smirnis's last 22.

Result probabilities: Lamia 58% | Draw 25% | Apollon Smirnis 17%. Fair-value odds: Lamia 1.72 | Draw 3.96 | Apollon Smirnis 5.99. The model has a clear lean to Lamia (58%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 40% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 60% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Lamia are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.27 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Lamia 70% (last 10 home games) | Apollon Smirnis 30% (last 10 away games).

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