Kifisia 0-0 OFI – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kifisia at 41%, yet in-form OFI provide a compelling counter-argument — this Kifisia vs OFI fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias plays host to Kifisia versus OFI in Super League 1 (matchday 8). Kick-off: Sunday 22 October 2023 at 15:00 UK time.
Form
Kifisia (all games): 1W 3D 3L across their last 7 — 0.86 PPG. Last five: W D L D D. They are averaging 1.29 goals per game and conceding 2.29 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.29 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 71% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Kifisia's form when playing at home: 1W 2D 0L across their last 3 home games (1.67 PPG). They are averaging 2.33 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.67 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.86 — Kifisia are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
OFI have collected 1.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: W D D D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
OFI away from home: 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
On a straight form reading, OFI are the stronger side — 1.04 PPG clear of the hosts (1.90 vs 0.86). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading Data
Kifisia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 7 games, 3 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games.
OFI goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 7 games, 3 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches; they lead at the break 57% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Kifisia 71% and OFI 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kifisia 71% | OFI 43%). Note also that OFI surrender HT leads in 50% of cases while Kifisia recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 40% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kifisia 1.82 xG and OFI 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kifisia attack 1.020 / defence 1.434 | OFI attack 0.991 / defence 1.075. League average goals — home 1.664 / away 1.094. Kifisia's defence rating of 1.434 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing OFI's projected output up. Data: built from Kifisia's last 7 games and OFI's last 33.
Result probabilities: Kifisia 41% | Draw 28% | OFI 30%. Fair-value odds: Kifisia 2.41 | Draw 3.53 | OFI 3.31. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS Yes probability 69% | Total xG 3.38. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.38 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% — both xG figures (1.82 / 1.55) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Kifisia as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form OFI (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kifisia if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.38 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Kifisia's last 3 home games and OFI's last 10 away games) averaging 3.6 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 69% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Kifisia 100% (last 3 home games) | OFI 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kifisia vs OFI | Competition: Super League 1, matchday 8 | Venue: Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias • Kick-off: Sunday 22 October 2023 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kifisia 41% | Draw 28% | OFI 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% (Under 34%) | BTTS Yes 69% (No 31%) | xG Kifisia 1.82 / OFI 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Kifisia attack 1.020 / def 1.434 | OFI attack 0.991 / def 1.075 | league avg home 1.664 / away 1.094 • Poisson stance: Kifisia (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
Kifisia xG
Expected Goals
1.55
OFI xG
69%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Kifisia vs OFI FAQs
What time does Kifisia vs OFI kick off?
Kifisia vs OFI kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Sunday 22 October 2023 at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias.
What was the final score in Kifisia vs OFI?
Kifisia 0 - 0 OFI.
Where is Kifisia vs OFI being played?
The match is being played at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias.
What competition is Kifisia vs OFI part of?
Kifisia vs OFI is a Super League 1 fixture (matchday 8) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Kifisia vs OFI?
Our statistical model gives Kifisia a 41% chance of winning, OFI a 30% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Kifisia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kifisia vs OFI?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Kifisia and OFI will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Kifisia vs OFI have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Kifisia's attack at 1.02x the league average against OFI's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.82 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — OFI's attack (0.99x) against Kifisia's defence (1.43x) — and the away total comes out at 1.55.
These ratings are built from Kifisia's last 7 games and OFI's last 33 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Kifisia Win
41%
2.41
28%
3.53
30%
3.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
7.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
Kifisia xG
Total xG
3.38
1.55
OFI xG
2.41
41%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
3.31
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.45
31%
BTTS No
3.23
Clean Sheet
21%
4.73
16%
6.20
Win to Nil
9%
11.41
5%
20.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 5.3 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 9.7 | 7.5 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.8 | 6.9 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 5.4 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Kifisia vs OFI Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Kifisia vs OFI?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Kifisia and OFI expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Kifisia and 1.55 for OFI, a combined total of 3.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Kifisia vs OFI?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Kifisia come into this having played 7 games, going 1W 3D 3L for 0.86 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-D-D.
On the other side, OFI sit at 1.71 PPG from 7 outings (3W 3D 1L), a run that reads W-D-D-D-W across their last five.
OFI carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.85 PPG clear of Kifisia — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Kifisia's home form reads 1W 2D 0L across their last 3 home games, a 1.67 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.86 PPG overall — Kifisia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, OFI have taken 0.67 points per game from their last 3 away games (0W 2D 1L). That's a step down from their 1.71 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of OFI's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kifisia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Kifisia are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 2.29 conceded per game recently; OFI are on 1.43 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kifisia have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Last 7 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kifisia
Early Season
OFI
Early Season
Kifisia (Home) vs OFI (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Kifisia
Early Season
OFI
Early Season
❓ Kifisia vs OFI Form FAQs
What form are Kifisia and OFI in coming into this match?
Kifisia have gone 1W 3D 3L in their last 7 games (0.86 PPG), while OFI have gone 3W 3D 1L in their last 7 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kifisia at home or OFI away?
Kifisia's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kifisia at home: 1.67 PPG; OFI away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent was as recently as 6 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kifisia have gone 0W 3D 0L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against OFI — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Kifisia
3
Draws
1
OFI
Recent Meetings
❓ Kifisia vs OFI H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Kifisia and OFI?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Kifisia have won 2, OFI have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Kifisia and OFI last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 September 2026: OFI 2-0 Kifisia.
Who has won more matches between Kifisia and OFI?
Kifisia have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Kifisia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 100% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 100% for Kifisia, 67% for OFI — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Kifisia and 67% for OFI. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: OFI in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kifisia home games / OFI away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Kifisia vs OFI Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Kifisia and OFI matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Kifisia's games and 67% of OFI's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Kifisia and OFI matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Kifisia's matches and 67% of OFI's.
Do Kifisia and OFI matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Kifisia's recent matches and 100% of OFI's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Kifisia's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kifisia and OFI finished level at 0-0 at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias, Regular Season - 8, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kifisia 1.82 xG and OFI 1.55 xG, a combined 3.38. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Kifisia fell 1.8 short of their projected output. OFI landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kifisia attack 1.02 / defence 1.43 against OFI attack 0.99 / defence 1.07, drawn from 7/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kifisia 41% | Draw 28% | OFI 30%, with Kifisia to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kifisia 71%, OFI 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kifisia's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
OFI's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, OFI arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 0.86. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Kifisia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. OFI (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.