Kifisia vs Levadiakos – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Kifisia at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kifisia vs Levadiakos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Kifisia host Levadiakos at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis in Super League 1, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 12 September 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Kifisia — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W W L D W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Kifisia haven't played a Super League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Kifisia have posted 3W 3D 4L at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Levadiakos stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Levadiakos haven't played a Super League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Levadiakos have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Kifisia at 1.40 PPG versus Levadiakos's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Kifisia, 1 for Levadiakos and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 28 Feb 2026, ended 1–0 with Kifisia winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Kifisia trading profile (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Levadiakos trading profile (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kifisia 56% versus Levadiakos 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kifisia 53% | Levadiakos 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kifisia 1.45 xG and Levadiakos 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kifisia attack 0.985 / defence 1.034 | Levadiakos attack 1.020 / defence 1.086. League average goals — home 1.356 / away 1.072. Data: 26 Kifisia games / 26 Levadiakos games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Kifisia 42% | Draw 30% | Levadiakos 28%. Fair-value odds: Kifisia 2.38 | Draw 3.33 | Levadiakos 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Kifisia as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kifisia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.58 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Kifisia 40% | Levadiakos 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (26 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kifisia vs Levadiakos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Sep 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kifisia 42% | Draw 30% | Levadiakos 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 54% | xG Kifisia 1.45 / Levadiakos 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Kifisia attack 0.985 / def 1.034 | Levadiakos attack 1.020 / def 1.086 | league avg home 1.356 / away 1.072 • Poisson stance: Kifisia (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Kifisia xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Levadiakos xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kifisia vs Levadiakos kick off?
Kifisia vs Levadiakos is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 12 September 2026 at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis.
Where is Kifisia vs Levadiakos being played?
The match is being played at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis.
What competition is Kifisia vs Levadiakos part of?
Kifisia vs Levadiakos is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Kifisia vs Levadiakos?
Our statistical model gives Kifisia a 42% chance of winning, Levadiakos a 28% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Kifisia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kifisia vs Levadiakos?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Kifisia and Levadiakos will score (BTTS).
Will Kifisia vs Levadiakos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kifisia and Levadiakos?
Record (2 meetings): Kifisia 1W | Draws 0 | Levadiakos 1W.
What form are Kifisia and Levadiakos in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Kifisia (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Kifisia's attack rating (0.98) and Levadiakos's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.45 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Levadiakos's attack versus Kifisia's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.4%), 0-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kifisia Win
42%
2.35
30%
3.34
28%
3.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Kifisia xG
Total xG
2.58
1.13
Levadiakos xG
2.35
42%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
3.63
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
23%
4.26
Win to Nil
14%
7.28
6%
15.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 8.6 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 12.4 | 7.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.0 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kifisia vs Levadiakos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Kifisia and Levadiakos expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Kifisia and 1.13 for Levadiakos, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Kifisia vs Levadiakos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Kifisia's recent record stands at 8W 13D 11L from 32 games, a 1.16 PPG return, with W-W-L-D-W in the last five. Kifisia haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Levadiakos, meanwhile, have gone 15W 7D 10L across 32 games — 1.62 PPG, with L-W-W-W-L in their last five. Levadiakos haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
The points-per-game comparison favours Levadiakos by 0.46 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Kifisia heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Kifisia have managed 4W 6D 6L from 16 games — 1.12 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Levadiakos's away record stands at 5W 4D 7L across 16 trips, a 1.19 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.62 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Levadiakos's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Kifisia are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Levadiakos are on 1.97 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Last 32 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kifisia
Pre-Season
Levadiakos
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kifisia and Levadiakos in coming into this match?
Kifisia have gone 8W 13D 11L in their last 32 games (1.16 PPG), while Levadiakos have gone 15W 7D 10L in their last 32 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kifisia at home or Levadiakos away?
Levadiakos's away record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kifisia at home: 1.12 PPG; Levadiakos away: 1.19 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Kifisia
0
Draws
1
Levadiakos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kifisia and Levadiakos?
From 2 meetings on record, Kifisia have won 1, Levadiakos have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Kifisia and Levadiakos last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Kifisia 1-0 Levadiakos.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Kifisia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Levadiakos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kifisia 50%, Levadiakos 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Kifisia) and 62% (Levadiakos). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Kifisia keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Kifisia have failed to score in 31% of games; Levadiakos in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kifisia home games / Levadiakos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kifisia play Levadiakos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Kifisia's recent matches and 50% of Levadiakos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kifisia vs Levadiakos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Kifisia's matches and 62% of Levadiakos's.
Do Kifisia and Levadiakos tend to score early?
Kifisia have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Levadiakos in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.