Kifisia 1-0 Levadiakos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Levadiakos at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kifisia vs Levadiakos encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Kifisia host Levadiakos at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis in Super League 1, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 28 February 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Kifisia — All Games: 1W 6D 3L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Kifisia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Kifisia have posted 2W 4D 4L at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Levadiakos stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W L D L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Levadiakos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Levadiakos have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Levadiakos — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.80 vs 0.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Kifisia register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Levadiakos in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Kifisia, 1 for Levadiakos and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 25 Aug 2025, ended 2–3 with Levadiakos winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Kifisia trading profile (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Levadiakos trading profile (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 57%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Kifisia 71% and Levadiakos 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kifisia 57% | Levadiakos 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kifisia 1.42 xG and Levadiakos 1.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kifisia attack 0.827 / defence 1.188 | Levadiakos attack 1.247 / defence 1.238. League average goals — home 1.382 / away 1.111. Levadiakos bring a strong defensive rating of 1.238 — this is suppressing Kifisia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Levadiakos have an above-average attack strength of 1.247 — the away xG of 1.65 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 21 Kifisia games / 48 Levadiakos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kifisia 32% | Draw 26% | Levadiakos 42%. Fair-value odds: Kifisia 3.12 | Draw 3.85 | Levadiakos 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.42 / 1.65) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Levadiakos as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Levadiakos offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.06 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Kifisia 60% | Levadiakos 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kifisia vs Levadiakos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Feb 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kifisia 32% | Draw 26% | Levadiakos 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 62% | xG Kifisia 1.42 / Levadiakos 1.65 • Poisson strength factors: Kifisia attack 0.827 / def 1.188 | Levadiakos attack 1.247 / def 1.238 | league avg home 1.382 / away 1.111 • Poisson stance: Levadiakos (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Kifisia xG
Expected Goals
1.65
Levadiakos xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kifisia vs Levadiakos kick off?
Kifisia vs Levadiakos kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 28 February 2026 at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis.
What was the final score in Kifisia vs Levadiakos?
Kifisia 1 - 0 Levadiakos.
Where is Kifisia vs Levadiakos being played?
The match is being played at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis.
What competition is Kifisia vs Levadiakos part of?
Kifisia vs Levadiakos is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Kifisia vs Levadiakos?
Our statistical model gives Kifisia a 32% chance of winning, Levadiakos a 42% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Levadiakos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kifisia vs Levadiakos?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Kifisia and Levadiakos will score (BTTS).
Will Kifisia vs Levadiakos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kifisia and Levadiakos?
Record (1 meetings): Kifisia 0W | Draws 0 | Levadiakos 1W.
What form are Kifisia and Levadiakos in?
Kifisia (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-L-D-D. Levadiakos (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Kifisia's attack rating (0.83) and Levadiakos's defence rating (1.24), the model arrives at 1.42 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Levadiakos's attack versus Kifisia's defence, projects 1.65 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Levadiakos Win
32%
3.10
26%
3.92
42%
2.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
0 – 1
7.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Kifisia xG
Total xG
3.06
1.65
Levadiakos xG
3.10
32%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
2.37
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.63
Clean Sheet
19%
5.18
24%
4.12
Win to Nil
6%
16.07
10%
9.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 7.7 | 6.3 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 10.9 | 9.0 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.7 | 6.4 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.6 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kifisia vs Levadiakos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Kifisia and Levadiakos expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Kifisia and 1.65 for Levadiakos, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Kifisia vs Levadiakos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Kifisia's recent record stands at 4W 9D 8L from 21 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-D in the last five. The sample for Kifisia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Levadiakos, meanwhile, have gone 10W 6D 5L across 21 games — 1.71 PPG, with D-W-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Levadiakos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Levadiakos by 0.71 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Kifisia heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Kifisia have managed 2W 4D 4L from 10 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Levadiakos's away record stands at 4W 3D 3L across 10 trips, a 1.50 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Levadiakos come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Kifisia are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Levadiakos are on 2.19 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kifisia have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games; Levadiakos in 62%.
Last 21 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kifisia
Blended
Levadiakos
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kifisia and Levadiakos in coming into this match?
Kifisia have gone 4W 9D 8L in their last 21 games (1.00 PPG), while Levadiakos have gone 10W 6D 5L in their last 21 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kifisia at home or Levadiakos away?
Levadiakos's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kifisia at home: 1.00 PPG; Levadiakos away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Kifisia
0
Draws
1
Levadiakos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kifisia and Levadiakos?
From 2 meetings on record, Kifisia have won 1, Levadiakos have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Kifisia and Levadiakos last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Kifisia 1-0 Levadiakos.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Kifisia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Levadiakos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Kifisia at 60%, Levadiakos at 70%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Kifisia and 70% for Levadiakos. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Kifisia have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kifisia home games / Levadiakos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kifisia play Levadiakos?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Kifisia's games and 70% of Levadiakos's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kifisia vs Levadiakos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Kifisia's matches and 70% of Levadiakos's.
Do Kifisia and Levadiakos tend to score early?
Kifisia have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Levadiakos in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Kifisia defy the odds to beat Levadiakos 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kifisia beat Levadiakos 1-0 at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis, Regular Season - 23, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kifisia 1.42 xG and Levadiakos 1.65 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Levadiakos landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kifisia attack 0.83 / defence 1.19 against Levadiakos attack 1.25 / defence 1.24, drawn from 21/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kifisia 32% | Draw 26% | Levadiakos 42%, with Levadiakos to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Kifisia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kifisia 57%, Levadiakos 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kifisia's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Levadiakos's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Levadiakos arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Kifisia winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Kifisia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line. Levadiakos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.