Kalamata vs Atromitos – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Kalamata at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kalamata vs Atromitos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Kalamata Metropolitan Stadium plays host to Kalamata versus Atromitos in Super League 1, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off: Saturday 13 March 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Kalamata have collected 1.17 PPG across 6 Super League 1 outings this season: 2W 1D 3L. Last five: L D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Kalamata have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Kalamata Metropolitan Stadium, Kalamata have gone 1W 0D 2L this season (3 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Atromitos's overall Super League 1 record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L D D L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Atromitos have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Atromitos's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.17 PPG for Kalamata against 0.80 for Atromitos. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Kalamata lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Sep 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Kalamata half-time and goal-timing data (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 33% of cases; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Atromitos half-time and goal-timing data (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Kalamata 67% and Atromitos 83% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kalamata 50% | Atromitos 50%). Note also that Atromitos surrender HT leads in 33% of cases while Kalamata recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kalamata 1.37 xG and Atromitos 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kalamata attack 0.932 / defence 1.297 | Atromitos attack 0.932 / defence 1.023. League average goals — home 1.439 / away 0.976. Data: 6 Kalamata games / 32 Atromitos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kalamata 38% | Draw 32% | Atromitos 29%. Fair-value odds: Kalamata 2.63 | Draw 3.12 | Atromitos 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Kalamata at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kalamata if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.55 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Kalamata 67% | Atromitos 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kalamata vs Atromitos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Kalamata Metropolitan Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Mar 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kalamata 38% | Draw 32% | Atromitos 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 55% | xG Kalamata 1.37 / Atromitos 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Kalamata attack 0.932 / def 1.297 | Atromitos attack 0.932 / def 1.023 | league avg home 1.439 / away 0.976 • Poisson stance: Kalamata (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Kalamata xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Atromitos xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kalamata vs Atromitos kick off?
Kalamata vs Atromitos is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 13 March 2027 at Kalamata Metropolitan Stadium.
Where is Kalamata vs Atromitos being played?
The match is being played at Kalamata Metropolitan Stadium.
What competition is Kalamata vs Atromitos part of?
Kalamata vs Atromitos is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Kalamata vs Atromitos?
Our statistical model gives Kalamata a 38% chance of winning, Atromitos a 29% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Kalamata the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kalamata vs Atromitos?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Kalamata and Atromitos will score (BTTS).
Will Kalamata vs Atromitos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kalamata and Atromitos?
Record (1 meetings): Kalamata 0W | Draws 1 | Atromitos 0W.
What form are Kalamata and Atromitos in?
Kalamata (all comps): 2W-1D-3L in 6 | 1.17 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-L-W. Atromitos (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Kalamata's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Atromitos's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.37. Flip it around — Atromitos's attack (0.93x) against Kalamata's defence (1.30x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from 6/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.4%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kalamata Win
38%
2.61
32%
3.08
29%
3.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Kalamata xG
Total xG
2.55
1.18
Atromitos xG
2.61
38%
Home win
3.08
32%
Draw
3.42
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
31%
3.25
25%
3.94
Win to Nil
12%
8.50
7%
13.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 9.2 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 12.6 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.7 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kalamata vs Atromitos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Kalamata and Atromitos expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Kalamata and 1.18 for Atromitos, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Kalamata vs Atromitos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Kalamata's recent record stands at 2W 1D 3L from 6 games, a 1.17 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Kalamata, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Atromitos, meanwhile, have gone 0W 2D 4L across 6 games — 0.33 PPG, with L-D-D-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Atromitos, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Kalamata by 0.84 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Atromitos heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Kalamata have managed 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Atromitos's away record stands at 0W 1D 2L across 3 trips, a 0.33 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kalamata come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Kalamata are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Atromitos are on 0.83 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kalamata have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Atromitos in 83%.
Last 6 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kalamata
Early Season
Atromitos
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kalamata and Atromitos in coming into this match?
Kalamata have gone 2W 1D 3L in their last 6 games (1.17 PPG), while Atromitos have gone 0W 2D 4L in their last 6 (0.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kalamata at home or Atromitos away?
Kalamata's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kalamata at home: 1.00 PPG; Atromitos away: 0.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 1 times since September 2026 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. The two were last together as recently as 6 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Kalamata
1
Draws
0
Atromitos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kalamata and Atromitos?
From 1 meetings on record, Kalamata have won 0, Atromitos have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Kalamata and Atromitos last play each other?
They last met on 6 September 2026, when Atromitos 1-1 Kalamata.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Kalamata are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Atromitos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Kalamata, 67% for Atromitos — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Kalamata) and 33% (Atromitos).
On the defensive side: Kalamata have failed to score in 33% of games; Atromitos in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kalamata home games / Atromitos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kalamata play Atromitos?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Kalamata's games and 67% of Atromitos's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kalamata vs Atromitos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Kalamata's recent games and 33% of Atromitos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kalamata and Atromitos tend to score early?
Kalamata have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Atromitos in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.